Bowl Projections: Week 9

[00Dawg]

ESPN (David Hale): Liberty Bowl vs WVU*
ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Outback Bowl vs Michigan^
CBS: Gator Bowl vs NC State
SBNation: Texas Bowl vs Texas Tech^
DieHards.com: Music City Bowl vs Iowa
CollegeSportsMadness.com: Texas Bowl vs Iowa State*
Saturday Down South: Outback Bowl vs Michigan State
CollegeFootballNews.com: Belk Bowl vs Georgia Tech^
247 Sports: Belk Bowl vs Georgia Tech^
Sporting News: Liberty Bowl vs Texas
Sports Illustrated: Outback Bowl vs Michigan State^
Bleacher Report: Belk Bowl vs Louisiville
USA Today: Music City Bowl vs Miami
Brett McMurphy: Music City Bowl vs Georgia Tech
GridironNow.Com: Citrus Bowl vs Miami
Orlando Sentinel (Brant Parsons): Texas Bowl vs Texas
Yahoo Sports: Citrus Bowl vs Michigan

*Denotes no change in bowl from previous week
^Denotes no change in bowl or opponent from previous week

Week 9 Plurality Prediction: Texas/Music City/Outback/Belk
Week 8 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl
Week 7 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl/Liberty Bowl
Week 6 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl
Week 5 Plurality Prediction: Gator Bowl
Week 4 Plurality Prediction: Gator Bowl
Week 3 Plurality Prediction: Citrus Bowl
Week 2 Plurality Prediction: Liberty Bowl
Week 1 Plurality Prediction: Music City Bowl
Week 0 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl

 

[HotMop]

I would love the Music City Bowl.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

No picks for the Cutrus Bowl? Looking at our schedule and the LSU/Auburn remaining schedules, that seems like the most probable destination at this point. Auburn will finish with four losses and we should have a better three loss resume than LSU.

Outback/Texas seems like a worst case scenario, IMO.

 

[civildawg88]

God no to the liberty or gator bowl

 

[thatsbaseball]

Negatory on Ga. Tech !!!

 

[Croom's knee socks]

Yea at 9-3 it would appear that the outback would be the floor with the peach/cotton being the ceiling and the citrus being the most likely landing spot.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Yea at 9-3 it would appear that the outback would be the floor with the peach/cotton being the ceiling and the citrus being the most likely landing spot.

Makes me so wooly

 

[Croom's knee socks]

No doubt. I wouldn't mind a New Years vacay at Disney and seeing the dawgs play

 

[00Dawg]

The picks appear to be all over the place, but I did notice...

That only 3 of the 9 Sunday projectors changed their destination pick for us after yesterday's win.
CBS changed us from Liberty to Gator
DieHards changed us from Texas to Music City
SaturdayDownSouth changed us from Liberty to Outback

I'm not convinced they're all paying attention to our results, nor where we played in recent years.

 

[00Dawg]

Speaking of the Peach/Cotton possibility...

For my own mental check I want to review my comments from another thread to see where we stand.

Assuming we hang with Bama, these are the things that would help us get to the NY6:
Part 1 is keeping the ACC champion out of the playoff so they eat up that guaranteed ACC Orange Bowl slot while the rest of the ACC teams falter (unlikely).
UPDATE: NC State stumbled, but VT and Miami didn't. It would be helpful if the Miami\VT game this coming weekend is a blowout, particularly in Miami's favor.
Part 2 is Washington winning out to take the PAC-12 champion slot, but not making the CFP (quite possible).
UPDATE: Time for the Huskies to start turning it on, but we also need USC and Stanford to fade.
Part 3 is a series of Big 10/Notre Dame stumbles that leave only one of that group in the CFP, and another in the Orange Bowl (unlikely).
UPDATE: The Michigan State loss was nice, but the other results didn't help much. The schedule isn't helpful here the rest of the way, so expect 3 NY6 teams from the Big 10 plus Notre Dame.
Part 4 is TCU running the table to the CFP while OU and OSU stumble down the stretch (possible).
UPDATE: Okay, Iowa State screwed us here. We now need 2 of TCU, OSU, and Iowa State to drop 2 games each. Possible, but not probable.
Part 5 is A&M and LSU beating everyone but Bama down the stretch so that both are quality wins, but still ranked below us, while Auburn drops 3 of their last 4 (possible).
Part 6 is no one else getting hot and making a run (unlikely).
UPDATE: Dang Iowa State.


You need probably 4 of those things to happen for us to land in the top 11.

Current NY6 breakdown:
SEC - 2
Big 10 - 3
PAC-12 - 1
Big 12 - 2
ACC - 2
ND - 1
G5 - 1

Teams 13-15: OK State, VT, Iowa State

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I'm not convinced they're all paying attention to our results, nor where we played in recent years.

This is the thing that is wrong with all these projections, IMO.

It’s easy/lazy to put Auburn and LSU above State in the bowl pecking order right now because of current AP rankings, name recognition, etc. The reality is you have to look at each schedule and think about where each team will be at the end of the year and then consider recent bowl matchups.

Auburn will most likely have four losses and a fan base that will be down after having dreams of the playoff or NY6.
LSU will likely finish with the same record as MSU but will have a home loss to Troy and lost head-to-head by 30 points. State would clearly have the better resume- given that LSU got to play Florida and Tennessee, while State has to play Georgia and Kentucky from the East. They also played in the Citrus Bowl last year, so its very likely they’d get sent back there again.

Here’s how I see it, assuming we finish 9-3:
10% chance at NY6 bowl
70% chance at Citrus bowl
20% chance at Texas/Outback bowl

 

[MSUDawgFan86]

How many 9-3 SEC teams you seen in the Liberty bowl? Or the music city for that matter?

 

[Chesusdog]

Not many but our bowl tie-ins changed.

I think the pecking order, and correct me if I'm wrong here, is:

1. Playoffs
2. Citrus
3. Outback
4. Liberty
5. Taxslayer
6. Music City
7. Belk
8. Texas
9. Independence
10. Birmingham

If we get any of the top 4 it'd be considered a good bowl. Also, I think Cotton, Peach and Fiesta are supposedly just taking the top non-playoff teams from whatever conference.

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

Not many but our bowl tie-ins changed.

I think the pecking order, and correct me if I'm wrong here, is:

1. Playoffs
2. Citrus
3. Outback
4. Liberty
5. Taxslayer
6. Music City
7. Belk
8. Texas
9. Independence
10. Birmingham

If we get any of the top 4 it'd be considered a good bowl. Also, I think Cotton, Peach and Fiesta are supposedly just taking the top non-playoff teams from whatever conference.

Bowl order is
Playoffs
Citrus
3-8 are all equal
Independence
Birmingham

3-8 is just determined on match-up and geography.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

Yup. Whether the fans like it or not, in the "selection" process, the Liberty Bowl is now equal to the Outback, Gator, and Music City Bowls regardless of what you think of the city. They WILL put a 9-3 team in Memphis if the geographical matchup makes since. Just like the Peach and Cotton moved up to join the 4 Big Boys to make up the Championship Bowl Series, the Liberty is on the same level as those I mentioned.

 

[The Usual Suspect]

Yup. Whether the fans like it or not, in the "selection" process, the Liberty Bowl is now equal to the Outback, Gator, and Music City Bowls regardless of what you think of the city. They WILL put a 9-3 team in Memphis if the geographical matchup makes since. Just like the Peach and Cotton moved up to join the 4 Big Boys to make up the Championship Bowl Series, the Liberty is on the same level as those I mentioned.

It may be equal on paper, but it is not equal in reality. I won't waste vacation and travel expense to Memphis like I would to a FL location. I would if I lived within a same day drive and home, but that is not the case in Houston, TX.

 

[Hump4Hoops]

Correct, fan excitement will vary by bowl.

Even though they're all technically on the same level, I'd always be stoked for Texas or Outback, okay with Gator if it's been long enough, and no interest in Liberty, Music City, or Belk. Those all just feel like trash bowls. Hell, even Independence bowl feels better than those 3, and it's worse even on paper.

 

[Dawgtini]

I love the liberty. Easy up and back with an overnight in Memphis from Central MS. One can only put so many mortgages on their trailer after all **

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

Bowl order is
Playoffs
Citrus
3-8 are all equal
Independence
Birmingham

3-8 is just determined on match-up and geography.

This ^^

Also another reason is that with no particular order between 3 and 8, you will not get put in the same bowl in back to back or other wise soon after you were there last. That is because there is going to be fan interest drop off in the second return year. Mixing it up would keep Fan attendance higher. Example one is the gator vs Michigan vs the one vs Northwestern.

So don’t plan on the Belk at all. I would say the Music City or Texas would be likely destinations. Followed by liberty, gator, and outback.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

After Jackson, Memphis is the worst city in the South. So the Liberty is last on my list of destinations.

Troll Post ^^^

 

[fishwater99]

We will finish 9-3. I expect the Citrus or Gator..

 

[archdog]

17 no to Georgia Tech. I hate playing a fringe offense that cuts our DE every play.

 

[MSUDawgFan86]

Everyone has their opinion and I respect that. I think we should be Citrus or Outback at 9-3. They say that 3-8 are equal but I believe perception doesn’t see if that way. Liberty is with independence and Birmingham as far as my perception. It’s a garbage bowl in a garbage city. However, The location is great for State fans and it’s a home game. That’s the positives. I believe my preference, if we don’t sneak into a New Years 6 Bowl which we could do is: 1. Citrus, 2. Outback, 3. Belk, 4. Music City, 5. Texas, 6. Tax Slayer, 7. Liberty.

 

[00Dawg]

I have a hard time counting the Music City and Belk as trash.

Granted, I didn't enjoy the long drive to Charlotte, but both are played in modern NFL stadiums, in cities with a lot of options for visitors, and the payout per team is north of $1.5 million in both cases.

I don't want to see the Liberty Bowl dropped, but I would like to see them picking after the tier they're currently on.

 

[HumpDawgy]

What I would like to see happen:

Bama (Sugar) College Playoffs
Gawga (Rose) College Playoffs
Miss. State (Citrus) Orlando payout $8,883,996
Auburn (Outback) Tampa payout $6,443,520
LSU (Texas) Houston payout $6,100,000
S.Carolina (Music City) Nashville payout $5,575,000
Kentucky (Belk) Charlotte payout $4,560,060
Texas A&M (Liberty) Memphis payout $4,550,000
Florida (Taxslayer) Jacksonville payout $3,383,760
Tennessee (Birmingham) Ditto payout $2,025,000
Arky if eligible (Independence) Shreveport payout $1,466,200

What will actually happen:

Bama (Sugar)
Georgia (Peach)
LSU (Citrus)
Auburn (Outback)
Texas A&M (Texas)
S.Carolina (Music City)
Kentucky (Belk)
Tennessee (Liberty)
Florida (Taxslayer)
Miss. State (Birmingham)
Arky (Independence)

You know it.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

aTm played in Texas bowl last year.

Reshuffle.

 

[HD6]

Arkansas Tennessee and possibly Florida won't be bowl eligible.

 

[HumpDawgy]

Forgot to add that Ole Miss has a bowl record of 3-5 this season. Not sure what those payouts are.

 

[HumpDawgy]

Arkansas Tennessee and possibly Florida won't be bowl eligible.

Hadad, I think Florida beats Mizzou and UAB to get to 5-6 with the cancelled game being a non conference patsy and should count in the minds of bowl selectors as a win. They also have a chance to beat Florida St. to get to 6-5. I believe even with the Mac dumpster fire, Shannon will pull them together to finish a rather weak end of season schedule strong (toughest team is S. Carolina).

I don't believe Arky makes it to bowl eligibilty, but I believe Butch gets Tennessee eligible with wins over USM, Mizzou, and Vandy. They also have a chance at LSU.

 

[johnson86-1]

We will finish 9-3. I expect the Citrus or Gator..

I think Gator is unlikely. Our fans clearly weren't pumped to go there in 2013 and even though it's been a while, i don't think they'll want to send us back when we've been so recently. I think they'll try to get us to Texas or Outback or Liberty. I'd put money on Liberty simply because we haven't been in a while and proximity.

 

[johnson86-1]

What I would like to see happen:

Bama (Sugar) College Playoffs
Gawga (Rose) College Playoffs
Miss. State (Citrus) Orlando payout $8,883,996
Auburn (Outback) Tampa payout $6,443,520
LSU (Texas) Houston payout $6,100,000
S.Carolina (Music City) Nashville payout $5,575,000
Kentucky (Belk) Charlotte payout $4,560,060
Texas A&M (Liberty) Memphis payout $4,550,000
Florida (Taxslayer) Jacksonville payout $3,383,760
Tennessee (Birmingham) Ditto payout $2,025,000
Arky if eligible (Independence) Shreveport payout $1,466,200

What will actually happen:

Bama (Sugar)
Georgia (Peach)
LSU (Citrus)
Auburn (Outback)
Texas A&M (Texas)
S.Carolina (Music City)
Kentucky (Belk)
Mississippi State (Liberty)
Florida (Taxslayer)
Tennessee (Birmingham)

You know it.

FTFY. Arky isn't going to make eligibility and assuming UT makes it, they can't jump us at 6-6. But if we don't get citrus, they probably are going to go heavy on regionalism on the 3-8 bowl gams unless a team has been to a bowl game recently. Sucks, but that probably means we're going to Liberty since we haven't been in a while. I'm guessing the only hope is that they switch A&M and us since we haven't been to the Texas bowl yet.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

You have to think that the SEC either gets 2 in the playoff & 1 more in a NY6 or at a minimum 1 in the playoff & 2 in the NY6. I think that the only way Georgia & Alabama do not make the Playoff is if one or both of them lose to Auburn, if that happens Auburn would definitely make a NY6. If Auburn loses to both Georgia & Alabama, they will be 8-4 and might be jumped by MSU & LSU. My point is that the Citrus is probably picking the #4 SEC team followed by Outback picking #5. We have to be in the top 5 today.

 

[patdog]

The picks are all over the place because no one really has a clue once you get past the Citrus. It's just one big crapshoot.

 

[Xenomorph]

Win 3/4.. don't get embarrassed in 2 weeks.. Auburn loses to UGA & Bama.. LSU goes 2-2 to finish... Bama/UGA play close in Atanta... and we're going to a NY6 bowl.

 

[HumpDawgy]

FTFY. Arky isn't going to make eligibility and assuming UT makes it, they can't jump us at 6-6.

Not counting who makes it in to the playoffs or the new years 6, only the citrus gets to take the second best SEC or best available in the pecking order. All other bowls with exception to Birmingham and Indy can select the SEC 3 through 8 eligible schools, regardless of record. That is how we will get screwed. That means Tennessee could absolutely jump us in the pecking order with a 6-6 record.

 

[HD6]

Florida can't score. Mizzou can.

Tennessee has no chance against LSU. And they can't score and Mizzou can. If anything, Mizzou might get in.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Vandy will go bowling @ 5-7. They have the #4 APR in the country and I think I read that at least 2 of the top 3 APR schools (maybe Notre Dame & Stanford) will be bowl eligible

 

[00Dawg]

Some quick Citrus Bowl notes from the CFP era.

In 2016, they chose 7-4 LSU over 8-4 Tennessee and 8-4 SEC East Champions Florida. LSU did have a better SEC record than Tennessee (5-3 vs 4-4), but not Florida (6-2). Also notably, Florida had beaten LSU during the regular season, but Florida was in the Citrus Bowl in 2015.

In 2015, there was no real contest: a 10-3 UF team was the most attractive option, as a 9-3 UM team had grabbed the Sugar Bowl due to their higher CFP ranking.

In 2014, there was again no real contest: a 10-3 Mizzou team was tops, as State and UM were both in the NY6 bowls.


So, anecdotal data says LSU won't be invited back to Orlando, all else being equal.

 

[HD6]

We've been to the Liberty more recently than the Gator.

 

[HumpDawgy]

Vandy will go bowling @ 5-7. They have the #4 APR in the country and I think I read that at least 2 of the top 3 APR schools (maybe Notre Dame & Stanford) will be bowl eligible

Vandy will probably beat Western Kentucky, but I don't believe they beat Kentucky, Mizzou, or Tennessee which would put them at 4-8 and out of even APR consideration.