Post-Phillie sweep (thanks Bobby), the Braves last hopes are on the WC. They are virtually tied with SF and SD, but since they still have a series to play each other, and only the worse of the two teams can get the WC, they are still in good shape. COL is probably one loss from being out of contention. They play SF this weekend, so all us Braves fans should root for the Rockies.
I put the WC contender from the West at a 45% chance of having 91 wins, 40% at 90 wins, <1% at 92 wins, <<1% at 93, with the rest at 89 or lower. So 6 out of 9 wins it, 5 out of 9 should get at least a one game playoff....... and if we can't even go .500 the last week of the season we don't deserve to go to the playoffs anyway
To support that, i'll show some math. It is now impossible for a West WC team to have 94 wins. To have 93, SF and SD must go 2-1 in their series (in either teams favor) AND sweep the other 4 series. Odds = 6/2^16. For 92, assume one loss outside of the series between the two ONLY for the lesser team (=(6*7+2)/(2^16)), or assume COL wins out AND SF or SD finishes at >=92, or SF AND SD win out except for a sweep either way between them. Not much better odds.
I put the WC contender from the West at a 45% chance of having 91 wins, 40% at 90 wins, <1% at 92 wins, <<1% at 93, with the rest at 89 or lower. So 6 out of 9 wins it, 5 out of 9 should get at least a one game playoff....... and if we can't even go .500 the last week of the season we don't deserve to go to the playoffs anyway
To support that, i'll show some math. It is now impossible for a West WC team to have 94 wins. To have 93, SF and SD must go 2-1 in their series (in either teams favor) AND sweep the other 4 series. Odds = 6/2^16. For 92, assume one loss outside of the series between the two ONLY for the lesser team (=(6*7+2)/(2^16)), or assume COL wins out AND SF or SD finishes at >=92, or SF AND SD win out except for a sweep either way between them. Not much better odds.