Toggle sidebar

BWI Sports Betting Thread

Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
Two misleading box scores to highlight

Illinois beat Duke 45-19
Illinois with 419 yards, 5.7 ypp
Duke with 438 yards, 6.9 ypp (-4 in TOs)

Colorado beat Delaware 31-7
Delaware - 396 yds, 6.0 ypp (-2 in TOs)
Colorado - 398 yds, 5.7 ypp

Misc notes
Vandy had 489 yds at 8.4 ypp vs VT
USC had 755 yds at 12 ypp vs GA Southern
Ball State gained only 68 yds vs Auburn
I didn't include South Alabama in the misleading box scores but they did outgain Tulane.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Erial_Lion
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
Also, I didn't get to watch the Baltimore/Buffalo game but seems like Baltimore bettors were dealt a bad beat.

Unders are 12-3 so far in the NFL I believe.
 
E

Erial_Lion

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
3,042
3,636
113
Another example of the legalization of sports betting allowing them to catch these guys (and also the exact type of spot I'd expect to see it, in a smaller conference basketball game with a bad team involving player props)...

www.espn.com

NCAA: 3 hoops players bet on their own games

A Fresno State men's basketball player manipulated his performance for gambling purposes and conspired with two players to place bets on his statistics, according to findings from an NCAA investigation released Wednesday.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
Ouch. I had 3 of these 4 games - UConn, CMU, and Kansas.

CMU waived the white flag with a few minutes left and stopped calling TOs. Narduzzi kept passing anyway and scored a meaningless TD with less than 1 min. FU Narduzzi.

Van Pelt Bad Beats
 
VaDave4PSU

VaDave4PSU

All-Conference
Aug 19, 2003
2,068
2,391
113
Thoughts on UCLA vs New Mexico? -15.5 Bruins favorite and 53.5 O/U.

I feel like New Mexico could win...much less cover and the under.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NedFromYork
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
VaDave4PSU said:
Thoughts on UCLA vs New Mexico? -15.5 Bruins favorite and 53.5 O/U.

I feel like New Mexico could win...much less cover and the under.
Click to expand...
Not touching it. My power ratings say UCLA -18.5, but it's still early in the season and my numbers are still a little scattered. I think S&P has this about UCLA -15 (including my own HFA). If I had to bet, I would probably bet over 52.5 (available at betonline).
 
  • Like
Reactions: VaDave4PSU
M

Moogy

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2017
3,124
2,129
113
Nighttime West Coast/Big 12 game with athletic QBs? Supposed to be sure fire offensive fireworks. These offenses are turds, so far. Maybe it’s a Friday thing.
 
VaDave4PSU

VaDave4PSU

All-Conference
Aug 19, 2003
2,068
2,391
113
Grant Green said:
Good call. NM has driven inside the 5 twice and turned it over. Regardless of the final, NM looks like the right side.
Click to expand...

I watched quite a bit of Michigan vs NM. They were pesky. Michigan couldn't pull away. They played solid ball, was just outgunned.

As for UCLA, I really had just seen their stats. For all the Nico tall, they stunk. His passing yards were low and he was their leading rusher coming in.

Based on what I've read from you guys here, the line jumped at me when I saw it.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
VaDave4PSU said:
I watched quite a bit of Michigan vs NM. They were pesky. Michigan couldn't pull away. They played solid ball, was just outgunned.

As for UCLA, I really had just seen their stats. For all the Nico tall, they stunk. His passing yards were low and he was their leading rusher coming in.

Based on what I've read from you guys here, the line jumped at me when I saw it.
Click to expand...
Great call!
 
  • Like
Reactions: NedFromYork and VaDave4PSU
M

Moogy

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2017
3,124
2,129
113
VaDave4PSU said:
I watched quite a bit of Michigan vs NM. They were pesky. Michigan couldn't pull away. They played solid ball, was just outgunned.

As for UCLA, I really had just seen their stats. For all the Nico tall, they stunk. His passing yards were low and he was their leading rusher coming in.

Based on what I've read from you guys here, the line jumped at me when I saw it.
Click to expand...
It's tough in early season games ... even struggling Power 4 programs usually get it together and put up a fight ... it's tough to predict them to be complete poo against a bad program like New Mexico. I don't actually bet, but if I did, I wouldn't have felt comfortable counting out UCLA here (I would have avoided the game), but if I were doing a pick 'em situation (where being wrong doesn't directly cost me money, and I can make up for it elsewhere if I'm wrong), I would have went with the dog.

Again, even though you "see" it, it's still hard to fathom a program like UCLA being this low. You think they're going to bounce back from early season struggles and at least be "meh."
 
  • Like
Reactions: VaDave4PSU
M

Moogy

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2017
3,124
2,129
113
ClarkstonMark said:
UMass plus the points tonight
Click to expand...

Not even sure how UMass fields a team. NOBODY in Mass talks about them. Recruits don't pay them any mind around here. If you're not a national recruit, you're going to BC. If you're not BC level, you're looking at UNH, URI type D1A schools. Or even D2/D3 schools. I mean, they just lost to friggin Bryant. What's the spread tonight? 78?
 
C

CDLionFL

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2021
1,667
2,540
113
Gotta love this gambling thing. Lost 3 games by a half point (Maryland, OSU, Kentucky) and a money-line parlay with Notre ame's defensive shenaigans. Would have been a banner day if 2 of those would have gone the right way. Oh well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MtNittany and LionJim
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
Erial_Lion said:
Even a better start with this week’s play
Click to expand...
Yep. Number came down a few points today, presumably on info about Simmons. Really not a big drop off to Chambliss though (and Ark defense not good). Arkansas could be an over train this year.
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
2,673
3,621
113
Looking at the Eagles game earlier on Hard Rock. -120 ML and -1 @ -110 on the spread.

Is the risk of a push (which isn't a loss of course) worth the payout difference?

I laid the point.
 
E

Erial_Lion

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
3,042
3,636
113
MtNittany said:
Looking at the Eagles game earlier on Hard Rock. -120 ML and -1 @ -110 on the spread.

Is the risk of a push (which isn't a loss of course) worth the payout difference?

I laid the point.
Click to expand...
You're going to push about 2.3% of the time taking the -1, and the value of 0 is under 1%...the -1 at -110 is the better play than the E -120.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green and MtNittany
VaDave4PSU

VaDave4PSU

All-Conference
Aug 19, 2003
2,068
2,391
113
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
VaDave4PSU said:
Thoughts on why we jumped 6 spots to #1?

Why did UGA drop below UT after a road win against them?
Click to expand...
I believe PSU was third last week. Not sure why they leap frogged osu and Oregon when playing a lesser opponent.

i don’t know exactly what goes into Connellys formula but it’s not score based. Totally stat based. The yardage between Tennessee and Georgia was almost equal but Tennessee had 7.1 ypp to 5.8 ypp likely indicating a better offensive performance.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VaDave4PSU
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
Misleading Box Scores

Delaware ended up being a great bet after their misleading box score last week. Covered +10 and won outright (should have sprinkled the ML).

This week:

Vandy over S Carolina 31-7 - closer than it looked
Vandy - 323yds/5.1 ypp
USC - 328yds/5.2 ypp (-3 in TOs)

Kentucky over EMU - 48-23 - score probably should have been a bit closer
EMU - 461yds/6.3 (-1 TOs and 1/4 on 4D)
UK - 492yds/7.3 ypp

Baltimore Ravens beat the Browns 48-23
Cle - 322yds/4.5 ypp (-2 TOs)
Balt - 242yds/4.6 ypp

Notes:
ODU with 8.5 ypp in a 45-26 win over VT
Vandy continues to cover spreads by margin (although GA St is not a good spot this week)
 
VaDave4PSU

VaDave4PSU

All-Conference
Aug 19, 2003
2,068
2,391
113
Grant Green said:
Misleading Box Scores

Vandy over S Carolina 31-7 - closer than it looked
Vandy - 323yds/5.1 ypp
USC - 328yds/5.2 ypp (-3 in TOs)

Vandy continues to cover spreads by margin (although GA St is not a good spot this week)
Click to expand...

Sellars going out in the 2nd quarter was probably a good part of that as well. Wonder if he's out this week? Mizzou are -13.5 favorites (climbed a point since yesterday).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
Grant Green said:
Will be interesting to track this angle for another season.
Click to expand...
Update on B10 teams traveling 2+ time zones.

Oregon and USC fail to cover at NW and Purdue.
0-2 ATS so far.

Minny traveled to Cal and didn't cover, but I won't include that since it's not a B10 matchup.

Tracking the ACC this year.
BC not only fails to cover -13.5 at Stanford but loses by 10.
0-1 so far

Note: Mich St travels to USC and Stanford to UVA this week.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: VaDave4PSU
E

Erial_Lion

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
3,042
3,636
113
Grant Green said:
@Erial_Lion
Elihu Feustel at about 26:00. Discusses how/when to buy points.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/867-...pisode/a-numbers-game-september-17-295002990/
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting...awesome stuff. I go back ~20 years to posting on some of the same forums as Elihu, and have learned a lot from him through the years.

Obviously you know this @Grant Green, but this is the exact type of thing that I spent years learning/studying as I made the transition from doing this for fun, to doing this to earn an income. The movies/TV shows portray serious gamblers so much differently than most of us are in real life (Eddie Walls is exhibit A...not flashy, pimping himself or giving out "locks", etc...just a bit of a dorky guy in shorts and a tshirt that worked his butt off to get where he's at).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green
1

1995PSUGrad

Senior
Nov 16, 2019
642
930
93
Well, as an amateur who has another full time job, I am open to any of your "locks" that you wish to share!
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,238
4,377
113
1995PSUGrad said:
Well, as an amateur who has another full time job, I am open to any of your "locks" that you wish to share!
Click to expand...
I think his point was that people who tout (pun intended!) their "locks" are probably selling you BS. I don't think I've ever made a bet and thought that it was a lock. The closest I got was the 2022 Tax Act bowl when LSU played K State and had no QB available. Personally, I generally don't like to give out too many of my bets here. I don't feel like dealing with the snarky comments when 46% of my bets are wrong. That said, Florida +8.5 was one of my first bets this week. I have this closer to +4 and I like the situation.

Otherwise, I would watch the RAS podcast that Erial will likely post today and take Eddie's advice on some games.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VaDave4PSU and 1995PSUGrad
E

Erial_Lion

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
3,042
3,636
113
Grant Green said:
I think his point was that people who tout (pun intended!) their "locks" are probably selling you BS. I don't think I've ever made a bet and thought that it was a lock. The closest I got was the 2022 Tax Act bowl when LSU played K State and had no QB available. Personally, I generally don't like to give out too many of my bets here. I don't feel like dealing with the snarky comments when 46% of my bets are wrong. That said, Florida +8.5 was one of my first bets this week. I have this closer to +4 and I like the situation.

Otherwise, I would watch the RAS podcast that Erial will likely post today and take Eddie's advice on some games.
Click to expand...
Note that Eddie won't be on today, but Mike R, another of the guys from RAS will be covering for him, and I'm sure will have great insight. It's live at 5pm eastern...



RAS is also doing a Thursday release show to give away one of their plays at 7pm Eastern. It's a different format, just a quick hitter where they'll tell you one play (and the line will literally move within seconds). They set it up so that they'll tell you a potential play, you get it into your bet slip, then they'll tell you if it's a play or a fake (all of this is needed to try and prevent line moves before they release it). No such thing as a lock, but I'd rate something like this as the strongest possible play that's publicly released in a week (though again, that's if you can get it at the release line, which means locking it in seconds after they release it).

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom