CFP Scenarios - Not too much intrigue left

[Perd Hapley]

Locks:

1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) UGA
4) A&M
5) Texas Tech
6) Ole Miss
7) Oregon

Soft lock*:

8) Oklahoma

Soft lock* with a W, OUT with a loss

9) Notre Dame (currently up 21-0)

*Disclaimer: The only way these two are each not a lock with a win today is if both win today, and BYU/Bama both win out. In this case, one will be left out.

Win conference championship to be in, otherwise OUT:

10) Alabama
11) BYU

Unknown locks:
Virginia, Duke, or another G5 Champ
Highest ranked G5 Champ

Currently out and need help:

12) Miami (if they aren’t ACC champ, which isn’t likely)

13) Vandy

Everyone else is out.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Notre Dame is such bullshlt, as usual.

 

[L4Dawg]

Notre Dame is such bullshlt, as usual.

You spelled it wrong. In that context it’s “bull$it. Notre Dame has the biggest following in the country.

 

[GloryDawg]

Not to change subject but I think the SEC will get exposed in the playoff and the talking heads will be discussing did it deserve four bids.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Oklahoma playing their way out of the playoff. They look like crap against LSU. Mateer with three picks. But Oklahoma has looked like crap much of the year and somehow are 9-2.

 

[Maroon13]

You're spot on. But I think aTm falls to 5 or 6.

LSU could really do Bama a favor today.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Notre Dame is such bullshlt, as usual.

The most interesting subplot to me has been the blatant and disgusting posturing to get Miami a bid before Vandy gets one.

Don’t look now but Vandy has a 7 pt lead in Knoxville. They pull that out, they’d possibly have 3 wins over 8-4 SEC teams, and no bad losses. Their resume would clown Miami’s, who would have potentially 2 losses to unranked teams, and nothing beyond that ND win. But regardless, they mysteriously moved Miami ahead of Vandy 3 weeks ago when Vandy didn’t play and all Miami did was beat a bad NC State team at home. They saw this situation coming and made arrangements to get a blueblood in if it came down to it. Terrible.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Updated original post.

Oregon won and now a lock.

OU won and is a soft lock, meaning they are a lock unless Bama, ND, and BYU win all 4 of their combined remaining games, and still might be in even if that occurs. But thats the only thing that can keep them out.

Essentially there are 10 spots taken, 2 left for some combination of BYU, Bama, Vandy, Notre Dame, and Miami. ND can win tonight as a big favorite and become a soft lock with OU, leaving 1 spot for Bama / Vandy / BYU / Miami.

 

[615dawg]

Appears that Miami can get to the ACC Championship game with an SMU win over Cal and a Virginia Texh upset of Virginia

SMU and Virginia win and that’s your game.

cal and Virginia win and it’s Virginia-Duke

Cal and VT win and it’s Duke-Miami

 

[patdog]

Bama is in with a win tonight. Vandy has no shot.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Appears that Miami can get to the ACC Championship game with an SMU win over Cal and a Virginia Texh upset of Virginia

SMU and Virginia win and that’s your game.

cal and Virginia win and it’s Virginia-Duke

Cal and VT win and it’s Duke-Miami

We’ll see how the Iron Bowl shakes out, but that might be Miami’s only viable path left.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Bama is in with a win tonight. Vandy has no shot.

Bama is not likely in if they don’t win the SEC title, unless the committee decides to bump them ahead of ND based on nothing but them beating a bad Auburn team. Wouldn’t hurt my feelings, but I doubt we’d see it.

Can’t put 10-3 Bama ahead of 10-2 OU who beat them in Tuscaloosa, nor can you put them ahead of any of the 11-win teams ahead of OU and ND.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Appears that Miami can get to the ACC Championship game with an SMU win over Cal and a Virginia Texh upset of Virginia

SMU and Virginia win and that’s your game.

cal and Virginia win and it’s Virginia-Duke

Cal and VT win and it’s Duke-Miami

Virginia currently handling Va Tech, and SMU suprisingly down by 10 to Cal at halftime. Looking like Virginia-Duke right now. And Miami’s resume takes a hit if Cal finishes off SMU. Both of their losses would be to unranked teams. Of all the Top 13-14 CFP teams, there would only be 3 total losses to unranked teams, and Miami would have 2 of them.

 

[FlotownDawg]

If Duke wins the ACC championship game, the ACC might not even have a team in the playoff at all. The top five conference champions are guaranteed spots. Not necessarily the Power 4 and one Group of 5. If Duke wins the ACC championship game, they will have an 8-5 record and some bad losses. The American and Mountain West or Sun Belt champions would most likely be ranked higher than Duke.

 

[Perd Hapley]

If Duke wins the ACC championship game, the ACC might not even have a team in the playoff at all. The top five conference champions are guaranteed spots. Not necessarily the Power 4 and one Group of 5. If Duke wins the ACC championship game, they will have an 8-5 record and some bad losses. The American and Mountain West or Sun Belt champions would most likely be ranked higher than Duke.

That would be hilarious. And even more reason why a team that couldn’t even make that league’s championship game (Miami) has no business near a playoff game.

It would also be quite something if Duke was still ranked higher than the AAC / MW / Sun Belt champs, and somehow Duke and Vandy both made the same CFP. Nerds, nerds, nerds…..