People, Ole Mis bos out. They have zero chance. The only thing to be decided for them is whether they're going to Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, or Nashville.
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- Thread starter Perd Hapley
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Alabama will be the 12 seed at 5 Seed Notre Dame. $$$$$ Book it
Yeah, I had missed where Memphis beat Tulane on Thursday. I’ll edit my previous post accordingly.
I feel like the 5th ranked conference champion would be 12th, but I guess it’s not a certainty.
I think its likely that they are in. But they need to at least appear semi-competent against Oregon. 11-2 - with no big wins - and a blowout championship loss is enough to at least put them in a precarious place, depending on what happens elsewhere.
It would take a lot of strange things to leave them out, though. Something like - SMU gets screwed on late call to lose to Clemson (finishes 11-2), Texas loses to A&M, A&M beats UGA to steal a bid, Boise State wins, and Oregon kills Penn State. That would leave you with 10-2 Texas, 11-2 PSU, 10-2 Miami, 11-2 SMU, and all the 9-3 SEC teams all jockeying for a handful of at-large spots.
There are at least 6 locks as we speak right now, with Boise State, Clemson, Texas A&M, and either a Big 12 or AAC team being assured of being added in that scenario above. That only would leave 2 more spots. Why does Penn State rise above all but one of those other teams?
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Too much chaos in that scenario and Texas is already eliminating the biggest threat in my opinion. I think 11-2 SMU that loses a close one in their CCG is getting in over a 9-3 SEC team that is sitting on their couch that Saturday. The AAC is not even close to being considered. Both the Big 12 and MWC champs are getting in. Boise State might have the argument to get in as an at-large if they lost a close one to UNLV but I wouldn’t bet on that one.
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Final updates for me for tonight….
- Texas now a lock
- Arizona State guaranteed a slot in Big 12 title game.
- Iowa State beats Kansas State to finish 10-2
- UH-BYU winner will decide the other Big 12 title game participant. If BYU wins, it will be Iowa State. If they lose, it will be Colorado.
- BYU now OUT, and whoever doesn’t make the Big 12 title game is also OUT.
The Big Picture:
- The 7 locks plus the ACC CG winner plus 2 of 3 winners from the Big 12, MWC, and AAC leaves only 2 at-large spots left.
- The teams contending for those spots are as follows: Penn State (would be 11-2, and may not need the at-large if they beat Oregon), Miami (10-2), potentially SMU (11-2), Alabama (9-3), South Carolina (9-3), Ole Miss (9-3)
The most important bottom line - Ole Miss isn’t making it.
- Texas now a lock
- Arizona State guaranteed a slot in Big 12 title game.
- Iowa State beats Kansas State to finish 10-2
- UH-BYU winner will decide the other Big 12 title game participant. If BYU wins, it will be Iowa State. If they lose, it will be Colorado.
- BYU now OUT, and whoever doesn’t make the Big 12 title game is also OUT.
The Big Picture:
- The 7 locks plus the ACC CG winner plus 2 of 3 winners from the Big 12, MWC, and AAC leaves only 2 at-large spots left.
- The teams contending for those spots are as follows: Penn State (would be 11-2, and may not need the at-large if they beat Oregon), Miami (10-2), potentially SMU (11-2), Alabama (9-3), South Carolina (9-3), Ole Miss (9-3)
The most important bottom line - Ole Miss isn’t making it.
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At the time, a lot was still in play. But Clemson is still a fly in the ointment….as is UNLV (see below).
With no ranked wins and an SOS in the 70’s? Forget the SEC for a minute, they’ve gotta get in over at least one out of Penn State and Miami, first. Then you can look at Bama.
I tend to almost completely agree. Only thing that would keep me from completely writing off the AAC is the chance that Colorado back doors their way in, and wins it. With them only at #25 last week, it’s not impossible for Army to pull ahead of Colorado in the next rankings. But if its ISU vs. Arizona State, I agree that they’ll 100% be out. May happen later tonight.
I think their argument is no worse than SMU’s argument would be. It’s actually a lot better. Remember that Boise State’s only loss was by 3 points to #1 Oregon. Them losing a close one to UNLV is something that no bubble team wants to see.
Tuesday will sort almost all of it out. We have to see where the committee places Ohio State, Miami, USCe. Looking like AZ St/Iowa St for the Big 12.
We won’t know until Dec 8 how the committee will weight the losses in conference championship games. Tough for me to believe that most than one team on the outside looking in will find themselves moving up between Dec 3 and Dec 8.
Sadly, this discussion is more fun than watching our team play every Saturday.
Should have put UNLV. Point was that spot is taken. There’s really only 1 spot up for grabs.
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Why would unranked Army jump the winner of a game between two teams in Boise St and UNLV that are both ranked higher than Army before the game even kicks off?
Boise St will likely be #10 or higher after Tuesday.
UNLV will likely be ranked #20 or higher.
The Big 12 championship game will likely be #15 vs #16.
Don't see how anyone would think it’s even possible for currently unranked Army to magically win one game and jump either of those winners to be ranked higher.
Texas is in for sure. Penn State is about as close to a lock as it gets without being one, but I’m personally not putting them there just yet. If they truly are a lock, then there’s only 1 spot left for Miami, Bama, SMU (if they lose), and Boise State (if they lose).
The Tuesday rankings will be interesting. Last week you had Miami at #6 and Bama at #13. Just ahead of Bama was Clemson, so you know Bama is jumping them and moving up to #12. So the ultimate question is do they slide Miami down past Bama (thus moving Bama up to #11), or keep them in front? They have to make that call between those 2 bubble teams right now, and neither of them plays again. Can’t wait until after the conference championships to settle who’s the preferred pick there…..definitely can’t rank one higher this week and then flip them the next week.
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Army wouldn’t be jumping those teams. They’d be jumping the Big 12 winner, if and only if it was Colorado (who was only #25 in last week’s rankings). That possibility is out the door if BYU wins tonight, of course. Shít all changes pretty quickly now.
But also, don’t rule out the politics of wanting to put in one of the service academies over Coach Prime’s 3-ring circus.
Updated to account for BYU victory.
- The autobids will go to the SEC, B1G, ACC, MWC, and Big 12. AAC is out.
- Big 12 title game will be ASU vs. Iowa State
- The Big 12 will not get more than 1 team in the field. Both teams in the title game will be outside of the final rankings heading into championship Saturday.
- As such, Colorado, Army, and Tulane all moved to OUT.
- If UNLV and/or Clemson win, the ACC or the MWC might have a path to 2 teams making the field, although its a relative certainty that both conferences will not get 2 teams.
The ultimate chaos scenario:
1) Boise State loses a close heartbreaker to UNLV
2) SMU loses a close heartbreaker to Clemson
3) Penn State gets obliterated by Oregon
You would have 11-2 Penn State, 11-2 Boise State, 11-2 SMU, 10-2 Miami, and 9-3 Bama all gunning for the final 2 at-large spots.
The clean scenario:
1) Boise State beats UNLV
2) SMU beats Clemson
3) Penn State beats Oregon or keeps it from being a blow-out.
Penn State, Boise State, SMU, and the Big 12 winner add to the 7 locks above. One spot is left, for either Miami or Bama. And that’s a decision that the committee must make - and release - THIS week.
- The autobids will go to the SEC, B1G, ACC, MWC, and Big 12. AAC is out.
- Big 12 title game will be ASU vs. Iowa State
- The Big 12 will not get more than 1 team in the field. Both teams in the title game will be outside of the final rankings heading into championship Saturday.
- As such, Colorado, Army, and Tulane all moved to OUT.
- If UNLV and/or Clemson win, the ACC or the MWC might have a path to 2 teams making the field, although its a relative certainty that both conferences will not get 2 teams.
The ultimate chaos scenario:
1) Boise State loses a close heartbreaker to UNLV
2) SMU loses a close heartbreaker to Clemson
3) Penn State gets obliterated by Oregon
You would have 11-2 Penn State, 11-2 Boise State, 11-2 SMU, 10-2 Miami, and 9-3 Bama all gunning for the final 2 at-large spots.
The clean scenario:
1) Boise State beats UNLV
2) SMU beats Clemson
3) Penn State beats Oregon or keeps it from being a blow-out.
Penn State, Boise State, SMU, and the Big 12 winner add to the 7 locks above. One spot is left, for either Miami or Bama. And that’s a decision that the committee must make - and release - THIS week.
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If a team is in as of Tuesday, they should be in unless a bid is stolen via conference champ game. Penn state shouldn’t ever be punished for losing a game they wouldn’t even have played if OSU wins yesterday.
I think generally this will be the case. Exception being a championship game upset probably won’t turn a 1-bid league into a 2-bid league in most cases. So Penn St is in no matter what. SMU has to win.
Either the conference championship games matter, or they do not. They can’t just situationally matter. If they truly don’t matter, then Penn State is a lock, Boise State is a lock, and SMU is a lock. Those are your #3, #8, and #10 teams in this week’s rankings. Plenty of room to keep all 3 in and just plug in UNLV and Clemson in the #11 and #12 slots….if they both win.
Of course, most people think it’s ridiculous for an 11-2 Boise State that doesn’t have a conference title to be included. And most think the same about SMU. And rightfully so. But if you think that, you have to apply the same principle to Penn State. All the data points matter. Penn State can’t just go out there and lose 49-0 to Oregon, and feel safe. Doesn’t mean that they have to win, but they’ve gotta at least show up.
They can count and the loser can not be punished. I don’t think those are mutual exclusive scenarios. Penn St is a lock because to punish them for playing the #1 team while at the same time allowing Indiana or Ohio State in is the hypocrisy they can’t do.
The importance of the CCG’s is what none of us are truly in the know about. Why should a game that others didn’t earn the opportunity to play count against them? If a team that is in loses their CCG in a single score game and it costs them their spot in the playoff and in Boise St’s specific situation, a first round bye, why would they continue to play those games? Would it not benefit somebody like Boise St to forfeit in the future if it puts them in the playoff but costs them their first round bye?
As you point out, any and all data points should matter. It’s a guessing game because we don’t know how the committee will weight them.
Something strange has to happen to force the conference’s and selection committee’s hands, maybe not this year, but definitely to specifically address the potential for future seasons.
Another strange one is the Big 12 and ACC champs have the potential to be ranked about 15th if Iowa St and Clemson both win next weekend. As much as I want to see the best teams play in the playoffs, I would love to see the mayhem occur of Clemson beating SMU by a field goal, UNLV beating Boise by a field goal, and Iowa St beating Arizona St by a field goal. This scenario would raise flags about the system the very first year.
I would clarify that teams should generally not be punished for losing a Conference Championship Game if it is to the benefit of a team who didn't qualify.
Like if Indiana were a bubble team and Penn State losing to Oregon knocked Penn State out and Indiana in, that would be bad. I say "generally" because maybe they still could in an extreme example a 52-0 loss or something that completely debunks the notion that a team belongs, but in the vast majority of situations, it shouldn't happen.
I wouldn't apply this to SMU or Boise State though, since if they lose next week, they'll be replaced in the bracket by the team who beats them. That's fine and what should happen. But it would be absolutely terrible if SMU lost next week and then Miami backed in to the bracket after losing to Syracuse made them miss the ACC Championship Game altogether. SMU should finish ahead of Miami in the final bracket [I won't quite say "no matter what" to allow for unlikely and extreme scenarios, but close to "no matter what"].
The conferences should be quietly pressuring the committtee not to penalize anyone for a CG loss. Bc otherwise they have to deal with a money making game vs what’s best for teams trying to make a playoff.
As usual they have to overcomplicate things. They could just say "We'll take the top 16 teams, with guarantees that at least 5 (/6/7/whatever) conference champions will get in, but there are no byes and no special rules about the seedings," and most of the most glaring issues would be addressed.
The best solution is to get rid of conference championship games altogether and make up for the money loss by expanding the regular season to 13 or 14 games, and expanding the playoffs to at least 16 team, but that will take some leadership and humility from the SEC and Big 10, so it probably won't happen.
The worry about penalizing teams for losing a championship game is overblown. They generally won't be. But if it ever did come down to choosing between a huge money-making game vs what's best for teams trying to get one of the final couple of playoff spots, money is going to win that one every time.
We have no evidence that the fear is overblown. If Clemson wins its entirely possible.
The most likely scenario is Clemson beating SMU. I think we will get to see how this one plays out because I expect Clemson to beat them.
You don't even have to expand the regular season. You could make up the money by just expanding the field to 16.
Side issue.....now that it looks like the SEC is about to get anal-raped for having its teams beat up on each other, I'm betting that 9-game conference schedule gets pushed out even further.
They’ll probably expand to 14 for 2026. But the championship games aren’t going anywhere.
I fully expect SEC to come up with an 8- game format that included either 2 or 3 permanent opponents. No way they go to 9 after this year unless ESPN kicks in more money (they’ve shown no indication they will).
Which is stupid and faulty reasoning, because Alabama and Ole Miss didn’t lose a combined 5 games to teams with a record of 8-4 or worse because of some scheduling gauntlet. They have those losses because they both had glaring deficiencies and they choked. They would still have 2 or 3 bad losses between them even with a 5-game SEC schedule.
Ole Miss lost to 4-8 Kentucky for God’s sake….how do you put that on the league “beating itself up”?
You’re not punishing Penn State by expecting them to simply show up against Oregon. No one thinks that if they come out and lose 31-14 that they shouldn’t still be in the playoff.
South Carolina probably feels differently. Also what if TN had a ninth game and it was Texas or SC or OM. No way we should add a ninth.
South Carolina is not a playoff team. Got boatraced at home by another non-playoff team, and also added a close loss at home to yet another non-playoff team. The fact they got as close as they did to getting in is kind of comical.
I just hate this whole line of thinking. The SEC is the last league on earth that should be trying to sneak in unworthy teams with scheduling smoke and mirrors. But by all means, lets sacrifice millions in additional revenue per year just so the league can occasionally get in 4/5 teams instead of 3/4 into the CFP….knowing full well that 4th team (or 5th team…whatever) isn’t ever going to have a chance in hell of winning it. Its the ultimate cutting off nose to spite your face move.