Chances of the dreaded 4-8 finish

[Perd Hapley]

As things sit right now, per ESPN upcoming matchup predictor the chances of a 4-8 finish for MSU is only 24.9%.

If we lose this weekend, chances of 4-8 really don’t increase that much….goes up to 31.3%.

Even if we lose both of what people feel are the most winnable games - the next 2 against Texas and Arkansas, chances are STILL slightly more likely that we finish better than 4-8. 4-8 chances go up to 49.1% if we lose both of the next two games.

Lose the next 3 (Texas, Arkansas, UGA), chances of 4-8 increase to 59.4%. This is where 4-8 actually goes from being “not likely” to “likely”, if it happens.

Lose the next 4, chances increase to 73.7%.

This is a big part of why people say Lebby would have to go at 4-8. He still has the odds greatly in his favor to not have that happen….even after blowing the Florida game. The bar is pretty damn low here, and will still be low even if we drop the next two.

ETA: Here are current chances for every possible final record, listed from most likely to least likely:

1) 5-7; 40.7% chance
2) 6-6; 25.4% chance
3) 4-8; 24.9% chance
4) 7-5; 7.78% chance
5) 8-4; 1.13% chance
6) 9-3; 0.07% chance

 

[Xenomorph]

 

[patdog]

Problem is FPI is garbage in garbage out. What were the FPI odds we'd be 0-11 right now?

 

[Perd Hapley]

Problem is FPI is garbage in garbage out.

It’s not FPI. Its the matchup predictor. FPI tends to give an accurate assessment of how good the teams are, and gets more accurate over time just like anything else. But again it’s not the same thing.

The most interesting thing currently is that the predictor gives us a lower chance of beating Texas than it does Arkansas or OM. Current metrics do not think we match up well with Texas at all.

What were the FPI odds we'd be 0-11 right now?

Again, it’s the matchup predictor and not FPI, but I’d say 0%. Pretty sure there was a near 0% chance of a loss to Alcorn, maybe only 10% for NIU and maybe 15-20% for USM.

ETA: I misunderstood your comment, thought you were just talking about this year’s record and not the last 11 SEC games. I have no idea honestly how to answer. Not sure if ESPN retains their prediction data after the games are completed. But based on last year’s conference SOS and the early Shapen injury, I’d bet it was well above 0%. Was probably 40-50% chance of going 0-8 last year, if I had to guess.

 

[patdog]

It’s not FPI. Its the matchup predictor. FPI tends to give an accurate assessment of how good the teams are, and gets more accurate over time just like anything else. But again its not the same thing.



Again, it’s the matchup predictor and not FPI, but I’d say 0%. Pretty sure there was a near 0% chance of a loss to Alcorn, maybe only 10% for NIU and maybe 15-20% for USM.

Same thing either way. Garbage in garbage out. What were the matchup predictor odds of us being 0-11 right now?

 

[dorndawg]

Same thing either way. Garbage in garbage out. What were the matchup predictor odds of us being 0-11 right now?

17.83% obviously

 

[aTotal360]

I still have us at 3-9.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

We need to come to the realization that 4-8 is the most likely outcome of our season. We’ll be underdogs the rest of the way. I was expecting to beat Ark on the road, but they’re looking better after Tittman was let go. Hopefully, they’ll run out of gas. UF was a great chance to get a win, but we choked that away.

 

[Drebin]

It’s not FPI. Its the matchup predictor. FPI tends to give an accurate assessment of how good the teams are, and gets more accurate over time just like anything else. But again it’s not the same thing.

The most interesting thing currently is that the predictor gives us a lower chance of beating Texas than it does Arkansas or OM. Current metrics do not think we match up well with Texas at all.



Again, it’s the matchup predictor and not FPI, but I’d say 0%. Pretty sure there was a near 0% chance of a loss to Alcorn, maybe only 10% for NIU and maybe 15-20% for USM.

ETA: I misunderstood your comment, thought you were just talking about this year’s record and not the last 11 SEC games. I have no idea honestly how to answer. Not sure if ESPN retains their prediction data after the games are completed. But based on last year’s conference SOS and the early Shapen injury, I’d bet it was well above 0%. Was probably 40-50% chance of going 0-8 last year, if I had to guess.

Yeah I remember how good FPI was when it loved us in 2018 while we were pissing away that season.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Yeah I remember how good FPI was when it loved us in 2018 while we were pissing away that season.

Exactly. And if we drastically underperform vs the predicted results again like we did in 2018….it will likely be for the same reason. That’s kind of the point.

 

[Perd Hapley]

We need to come to the realization that 4-8 is the most likely outcome of our season. We’ll be underdogs the rest of the way. I was expecting to beat Ark on the road, but they’re looking better after Tittman was let go. Hopefully, they’ll run out of gas. UF was a great chance to get a win, but we choked that away.

If you believe this very strongly, I’d encourage you to head to your nearest sportsbook and take advantage….because you’ll likely get paid 3-1 or better.

 

[patdog]

If you believe this very strongly, I’d encourage you to head to your nearest sportsbook and take advantage….because you’ll likely get paid 3-1 or better.

So the question becomes how much money would it take to ease the pain of an 8-game losing streak. **

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

are increasing every week

 

[3407Dewey]

We all know that this board is incredibly emotional after a loss, and Saturday's loss was brutal. However, when I remind myself of my own expectations before the season started, I have to conclude that we're doing better than expected. I hoped to go 3-1 in non-conference, get 1 or 2 conference wins, and look competitive. Basically not get our arses drug up and down the field like last year. So far, we have looked like a decent team that was only badly outmatched in 1 game (on the road to a top 5 team). If we continue to play at this level, we will get another win or more this season.

 

[patdog]

We all know that this board is incredibly emotional after a loss, and Saturday's loss was brutal. However, when I remind myself of my own expectations before the season started, I have to conclude that we're doing better than expected. I hoped to go 3-1 in non-conference, get 1 or 2 conference wins, and look competitive. Basically not get our arses drug up and down the field like last year. So far, we have looked like a decent team that was only badly outmatched in 1 game (on the road to a top 5 team). If we continue to play at this level, we will get another win or more this season.

I don't disagree with you at all. So far, we've looked better than I expected. Still not anywhere near where we need to be, but better than I expected. And I still think we'll get a 5th win somewhere and make all of this moot, and he's probably safe even if we don't. But dammit, I'm still p*ssed at the way we lost Saturday.

 

[L4Dawg]

As things sit right now, per ESPN upcoming matchup predictor the chances of a 4-8 finish for MSU is only 24.9%.

If we lose this weekend, chances of 4-8 really don’t increase that much….goes up to 31.3%.

Even if we lose both of what people feel are the most winnable games - the next 2 against Texas and Arkansas, chances are STILL slightly more likely that we finish better than 4-8. 4-8 chances go up to 49.1% if we lose both of the next two games.

Lose the next 3 (Texas, Arkansas, UGA), chances of 4-8 increase to 59.4%. This is where 4-8 actually goes from being “not likely” to “likely”, if it happens.

Lose the next 4, chances increase to 73.7%.

This is a big part of why people say Lebby would have to go at 4-8. He still has the odds greatly in his favor to not have that happen….even after blowing the Florida game. The bar is pretty damn low here, and will still be low even if we drop the next two.

ETA: Here are current chances for every possible final record, listed from most likely to least likely:

1) 5-7; 40.7% chance
2) 6-6; 25.4% chance
3) 4-8; 24.9% chance
4) 7-5; 7.78% chance
5) 8-4; 1.13% chance
6) 9-3; 0.07% chance

I'd say it's about 90%.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

I'd say it's about 90%.

I’d say 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

so there IS A CHANCE State does better than 4-8. But the Astroid may not come close enough to any of our remaining opponents to affect the outcome in our favor.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I'd say it's about 90%.

I was going to say 80%. I like your odds better after this weekend.

 

[Puppers]

6) 9-3; 0.07% chance

 

[HotMop]

I still have us at 3-9.

2-10 is more likely fool.

 

[CDawg08]

Being a State fan is not for the faint of heart that’s for sure.

 

[22yardpunt]

0% chance we don’t go 4-8. It’s happening so accept it and enjoy any signs of progress that you can.