Checking in on portal / NIL impact to March Madness

[Perd Hapley]

2025 - the entirety of the Sweet 16 was P4 teams. All 4 of the top seeds in the Final Four. Chalk City.

2026 - 14 of 16 teams in the Sweet 16 are P4 teams. Only two that are not….2-seed UConn, who has 6 national titles and is practically a P4 in basketball with their NIL investment (maybe the only school with that distinction). And then there’s 5-seed St. John’s….who have a long history and are coached by a guy with 2 titles and 7 Final Fours….and they were actually favored over 4-seed Kansas. Each region had 3 of the top 4 seeds reach the Sweet 16. 7 of the top 8 seeds are still alive. Chalk City, again.

NCAA Tourney is completely dead at this point, thanks to all this BS. It’s incredible how far reaching these reforms have been at just neutering everything that used to be great about college sports.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

2025 - the entirety of the Sweet 16 was P4 teams. All 4 of the top seeds in the Final Four. Chalk City.

2026 - 14 of 16 teams in the Sweet 16 are P4 teams. Only two that are not….2-seed UConn, who has 6 national titles and is practically a P4 in basketball with their NIL investment (maybe the only school with that distinction). And then there’s 5-seed St. John’s….who have a long history and are coached by a guy with 2 titles and 7 Final Fours….and they were actually favored over 4-seed Kansas. Each region had 3 of the top 4 seeds reach the Sweet 16. 7 of the top 8 seeds are still alive. Chalk City, again.

NCAA Tourney is completely dead at this point, thanks to all this BS. It’s incredible how far reaching these reforms have been at just neutering everything that used to be great about college sports.

UConn and St John’s are both in the Big East which is considered a power conference in basketball. They spend big money on NIL basketball.

 

[onewoof]

I hate it. WTH is going on at Kentucky though

 

[Perd Hapley]

UConn and St John’s are both in the Big East which is considered a power conference in basketball. They spend big money on NIL basketball.

Correct, but with the caveat that the Big East is no longer a power conference at all in basketball. Not anymore. That league is now just UConn, St. John’s, Villanova, and a bag of cats. The 3 teams above are the only ones who even finished over .500 in league play this past season.

St. John’s and UConn are currently investing P4 upper level money into basketball. I’m not sure that Villanova is, but they might be….they’ve been down a bit since Wright retired. And I’m not sure that St. John’s can keep doing it over the long haul. UConn is the only non-P4 program nationally that you can say has the money and staying power of a P4 school in basketball. They are essentially the Notre Dame football of the college basketball world.

In the end, the story is still the same. Money rules all, and the mid-major Cinderella is dead. Never again will you see George Mason or Loyola Chicago in the Final 4. Ever.

17ing Gonzaga is a fantastic example. They’ve built themselves way beyond your typical “mid-major” level, but even they no longer have a path to relevance. They get a 3-seed. They get matched up with an 11-seed in the 2nd round, and they aren’t even the most talented team on the floor.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I hate it. WTH is going on at Kentucky though

Kentucky has been on a slow decline for a very long time. They are still relevant, but they’ve taken a huge hit in this climate, too.

They have Top 20 NIL in basketball, but they can’t outspend Duke, UNC, Kansas, Florida, or UConn, and really can’t even outspend the likes of Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, or half the B1G, either.

 

[BonzoGoesToCollege]

I hate it. WTH is going on at Kentucky though

don't know but I love it.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I hate it. WTH is going on at Kentucky though

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Correct, but with the caveat that the Big East is no longer a power conference at all in basketball. Not anymore. That league is now just UConn, St. John’s, Villanova, and a bag of cats. The 3 teams above are the only ones who even finished over .500 in league play this past season.

St. John’s and UConn are currently investing P4 upper level money into basketball. I’m not sure that Villanova is, but they might be….they’ve been down a bit since Wright retired. And I’m not sure that St. John’s can keep doing it over the long haul. UConn is the only non-P4 program nationally that you can say has the money and staying power of a P4 school in basketball. They are essentially the Notre Dame football of the college basketball world.

In the end, the story is still the same. Money rules all, and the mid-major Cinderella is dead. Never again will you see George Mason or Loyola Chicago in the Final 4. Ever.

17ing Gonzaga is a fantastic example. They’ve built themselves way beyond your typical “mid-major” level, but even they no longer have a path to relevance. They get a 3-seed. They get matched up with an 11-seed in the 2nd round, and they aren’t even the most talented team on the floor.

One season isn't a reflection of the Big East. This was a down year for sure with only three teams, but generally speaking Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and Xavier are more than a bag of cats.

 

[Bulldog45]

NCAA Tourney is completely dead at this point, thanks to all this BS. It’s incredible how far reaching these reforms have been at just neutering everything that used to be great about college sports.

I have been a big fan of the ncaa tournament for as long as I can remember. When I was a kid spring break meant watching from the opening tips Thursday and Friday mornings until the last second ran off the clock after midnight. That said, for the first time ever I have not watched one second of the tournament this year. Interest and ratings may be booming but I am no longer a fan.

 

[17itdawg]

I hate it. WTH is going on at Kentucky though

Supposedly a lack of NIL. I have no idea of the validity of that rumor, but I have heard it from people connected to the UK athletic department. Now with Barnhart retiring maybe things change.

 

[msudawg1200]

One season isn't a reflection of the Big East. This was a down year for sure with only three teams, but generally speaking Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and Xavier are more than a bag of cats.

Georgetown could be added to that list also if they get serious about it again. They have big money.

 

[POTUS]

We aren’t that many years removed from having SDSU, FAU, & Miami all making final four as 4, 5 & 9 seeds. 2023. So it may be too early to make declarations.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I have been a big fan of the ncaa tournament for as long as I can remember. When I was a kid spring break meant watching from the opening tips Thursday and Friday mornings until the last second ran off the clock after midnight. That said, for the first time ever I have not watched one second of the tournament this year. Interest and ratings may be booming but I am no longer a fan.

@DesotoCountyDawg You got it?

 

[8dog]

Supposedly a lack of NIL. I have no idea of the validity of that rumor, but I have heard it from people connected to the UK athletic department. Now with Barnhart retiring maybe things change.

It’s like a $22 million roster.

 

[8dog]

I have been a big fan of the ncaa tournament for as long as I can remember. When I was a kid spring break meant watching from the opening tips Thursday and Friday mornings until the last second ran off the clock after midnight. That said, for the first time ever I have not watched one second of the tournament this year. Interest and ratings may be booming but I am no longer a fan.

Been some great games regardless of the conferences/mid majors/p4. Nebraska-Vandy, Iowa-Florida, Virginia-TN. Good stuff.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Kentucky has been on a slow decline for a very long time. They are still relevant, but they’ve taken a huge hit in this climate, too.

They have Top 20 NIL in basketball, but they can’t outspend Duke, UNC, Kansas, Florida, or UConn, and really can’t even outspend the likes of Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, or half the B1G, either.

It's been widely reported that Kentucky had the most expensive roster in the country this year, somewhere in the $22 million range. Their problem started with roster building and injuries, not money. For example they gave Quaintance from Arizona State a huge deal and he barely played at all.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I know they are P4 but Nebraska and Iowa are not traditional basketball powers.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

NCAA basketball TITLES have always been more elusive than people let on. They think there's more cinderella teams because certain ones make runs, but as far as who wins, it's usually blue bloods like football.

But I think what NIL is doing more than anything is bringing up the middle tier P4 teams, rather than helping G6/mid-major, for sure. So you aren't wrong.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I have been a big fan of the ncaa tournament for as long as I can remember. When I was a kid spring break meant watching from the opening tips Thursday and Friday mornings until the last second ran off the clock after midnight. That said, for the first time ever I have not watched one second of the tournament this year. Interest and ratings may be booming but I am no longer a fan.

@DesotoCountyDawg You got it?

 

[MSUDOG24]

It’s like a $22 million roster.

Had to laugh at that as well as all I've heard all year is how expensive their roster was.

 

[Perd Hapley]

We aren’t that many years removed from having SDSU, FAU, & Miami all making final four as 4, 5 & 9 seeds. 2023. So it may be too early to make declarations.

2022-2023 season was the last year before there was major escalation in portal / NIL in the revenue sports. 2022 football was the last such year that aligned in the same window. Might as well be ancient history as it relates to current college basketball.

 

[Perd Hapley]

It's been widely reported that Kentucky had the most expensive roster in the country this year, somewhere in the $22 million range. Their problem started with roster building and injuries, not money. For example they gave Quaintance from Arizona State a huge deal and he barely played at all.

I think both things can be true. They are certainly spending big. But their margin of error isn’t nearly what it used to be, now that everyone else is spending big, too.

In the old days, they’d buy 3-4 McDonald’s All-Americans per year under the table. They’d add some elite pieces to those guys too who weren’t quite as highly rated. Nobody noticed the misses, because they had enough lottery picks to make it not matter. Now on a level playing field where everyone can do what they did for 5 decades to get an advantage, they can’t afford to miss nearly as often.

 

[MSUDOG24]

Been some great games regardless of the conferences/mid majors/p4. Nebraska-Vandy, Iowa-Florida, Virginia-TN. Good stuff.

To each their own but I've watched all or parts of every game. Heck, I watched most of all of the conference tournaments including a lot of the off beat ones. Actually watched our old nemesis The Dons go down in theirs. Been fun.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I know they are P4 but Nebraska and Iowa are not traditional basketball powers.

And Indiana is not a traditional football power.

When everything becomes all about money and nothing else, new contenders emerge and a few old ones encounter some new headwinds.

 

[Perd Hapley]

One season isn't a reflection of the Big East. This was a down year for sure with only three teams, but generally speaking Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and Xavier are more than a bag of cats.

The Big East is not ever going to approach 8+ bids again like the P4 conferences. Each P4 league got 8+ bids and at least 50% of their teams in the field, Big East had 3….same number as the WCC. Just one more than the MAC. Maybe in a better year they’d get 4-5 bids, but they are nothing close to a major conference anymore.

 

[85Bears]

Big East is a power conference in basketball Perd

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The Big East is not ever going to approach 8+ bids again like the P4 conferences. Each P4 league got 8+ bids and at least 50% of their teams in the field, Big East had 3….same number as the WCC. Just one more than the MAC. Maybe in a better year they’d get 4-5 bids, but they are nothing close to a major conference anymore.

Like @DawgatAuburn said, it’s a down year. Those schools spend a lot of money on NIL. It’s all they have.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Like @DawgatAuburn said, it’s a down year. Those schools spend a lot of money on NIL. It’s all they have.

They only got 5 bids in 2025, again less than 50% of the league.

Of course they spend on NIL, but they don’t have the payroll to go bonkers there every single year, except for UConn. They also don’t have massive football revenue and TV contracts to help with the revenue share payouts. That’s going to really hurt them more and more as time goes on.

The “P4” in basketball is really just the “P3”, along with the top 1/3 in the Big East and Top 1/3 of the ACC comprising a number of respectable teams. But neither of those 2 leagues has anywhere close to the top-to-bottom strength of the SEC / B1G / B12. Unsurprisingly, the strength of all those conferences is heavily tied to where they fall on the TV deal pecking order.