Conference Expansion Predictions

oldtimer67

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Dec 19, 2006
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Just another silly article about ACC addition/subtraction that does not mention GOR or the Big Ten not interfering with another conference's contracts.

Another option that is rarely mentioned is, instead of the Mountain West taking in the PAC4, the PAC might absorb some or all of the Mountain West. The result may be the same, but the PAC survives, keeps its auto bid, and the current MW teams gain prestige. They might then take a deal with Apple.
 

Scarlet Jerry

All-Conference
Jul 30, 2001
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There would be a lot of upside if the Pac 4 takes all or most of the mountain west. Most of that conference is in close proximity to your schools, and you have programs with some national interest, like Air Force and Boise State. Plus, there would be lots of parity with USC and Oregon out of the conference. If you are Stanford, it could also give you a home until the ACC GOR expires and the Big Ten adds ND and Stanford. Also, you have a path to an autobid. You may even be able to somehow wrangle the Rose Bowl if you make an agreement to play a Big Ten team (perhaps a former conference mate?) on New Years Day. Just do it! (Sorry Oregon)

Scarlet Jerry
 
Oct 19, 2010
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OK, I'll play:

The Pac 4 takes SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, CSU, Air Force from the MWC and SMU, and Tulane from the AAC.

The ACC is stuck in neutral. No one leaves because breaking the GOR is cost-prohibitive for at least the next five years. Cal and Stanford joining the ACC is absurd and not additive.

No more expansion from the SEC and Big 10 in the short term.

A new MWC conference emerges - Hawaii, SJSU, Wyoming and New Mexico add UTEP, New Mexico State and Sam Houston from CUSA, and some schools transitioning from FCS to FBS under the WAC banner.
 

Retired711

All-American
Nov 20, 2001
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Just another silly article about ACC addition/subtraction that does not mention GOR or the Big Ten not interfering with another conference's contracts.

Another option that is rarely mentioned is, instead of the Mountain West taking in the PAC4, the PAC might absorb some or all of the Mountain West. The result may be the same, but the PAC survives, keeps its auto bid, and the current MW teams gain prestige. They might then take a deal with Apple.
It's mentioned a lot on the Cal board. Cal fans hate it. But beggars can't be choosers. "Go to him now/ he calls you/ you can't refuse . . . "
 
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SantaFeScarlet

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Aug 8, 2001
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Just another silly article about ACC addition/subtraction that does not mention GOR or the Big Ten not interfering with another conference's contracts.

Another option that is rarely mentioned is, instead of the Mountain West taking in the PAC4, the PAC might absorb some or all of the Mountain West. The result may be the same, but the PAC survives, keeps its auto bid, and the current MW teams gain prestige. They might then take a deal with Apple.
No happening as each MW school has a $35mil exit fee
 

SantaFeScarlet

All-Conference
Aug 8, 2001
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OK, I'll play:

The Pac 4 takes SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, CSU, Air Force from the MWC and SMU, and Tulane from the AAC.

The ACC is stuck in neutral. No one leaves because breaking the GOR is cost-prohibitive for at least the next five years. Cal and Stanford joining the ACC is absurd and not additive.

No more expansion from the SEC and Big 10 in the short term.

A new MWC conference emerges - Hawaii, SJSU, Wyoming and New Mexico add UTEP, New Mexico State and Sam Houston from CUSA, and some schools transitioning from FCS to FBS under the WAC banner.
Not happening as MW schools have a $35 mil exit fee.
 

rubigtimenow

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Mar 4, 2015
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No happening as each MW school has a $35mil exit fee
I think that’s only for next year. It’s not cost prohibitive for 2025. PAC needs to add I think 4 schools for 2024 (SMU? not sure who else) then can add MWC schools the following year.
 

satnom

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Jun 28, 2002
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Don’t see any way Stanford and Cal are the only western schools in the ACC. Makes no business sense even if ESPN incentivizes. Those schools would have to be accompanied by Or St and WSU at minimum.

Miami, UNC and UVA to BIG at some point makes a bunch of sense.

Think FSU to B12 is a possibility.

VA Tech and NC St could be attractive to SEC for new southern markets that border existing SEC schools.

GO RU
 

mikeinsec127

Junior
Feb 24, 2003
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I’m not so sure the PAC can just grab a bunch of MWC schools and that’s it. The MWC was demanding $35m for SDSU to leave. A reconfigured PAC is only going to get about $10.5m per school, while the MWC makes $3.5m per. So at a plus $7m per year max return, it will take a school about five years to break even.
 

rureadyforsomefootball

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Aug 20, 2005
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Did the NIL help to kick start and speed up conference realignment? The NIL sure didn't do anything to help balance the recruiting wars. It just made the Big Boys even more powerful. If the P5 becomes the P3, the Mid- Majors will find talent under rocks and lose them to the Big Boys after a couple of seasons. They will turn into a Minor league feeder system for the Majors to cherry pick. Really sad what this has done to college sports.
 
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JerseyNoles

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Jul 28, 2021
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Don’t see any way Stanford and Cal are the only western schools in the ACC. Makes no business sense even if ESPN incentivizes. Those schools would have to be accompanied by Or St and WSU at minimum.

Miami, UNC and UVA to BIG at some point makes a bunch of sense.

Think FSU to B12 is a possibility.

VA Tech and NC St could be attractive to SEC for new southern markets that border existing SEC schools.

GO RU
Agree w/everything except FSU to the B12
There's a better chance I move to Alaska or #'s moving to Florida then that happening
 

JerseyNoles

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Jul 28, 2021
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SEC took UT which which is duplicate market as A & M - so now they won't want FSU b/c duplicate market with UF ?

Moreover, they'll want the B1G to corner the market and grab all 4 coasts?
 
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NickRU714

Heisman
Aug 18, 2009
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Did the NIL help to kick start and speed up conference realignment? The NIL sure didn't do anything to help balance the recruiting wars. It just made the Big Boys even more powerful. If the P5 becomes the P3, the Mid- Majors will find talent under rocks and lose them to the Big Boys after a couple of seasons. They will turn into a Minor league feeder system for the Majors to cherry pick. Really sad what this has done to college sports.

NIL?
It’s conference media revenue and the huge inequality between conferences.
NIL has nothing to do with conference realignment and the Big Ten-SEC poaching schools.

Heard NIL also caused all the flooding in California. Rumors NIL also tanked the Russian moon lander.
 

rureadyforsomefootball

All-Conference
Aug 20, 2005
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NIL?
It’s conference media revenue and the huge inequality between conferences.
NIL has nothing to do with conference realignment and the Big Ten-SEC poaching schools.

Heard NIL also caused all the flooding in California. Rumors NIL also tanked the Russian moon lander.
Snarky remark, not surprised. I'll listen to these guys before your closed minded take.
 
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RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
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SEC took UT which which is duplicate market as A & M - so now they won't want FSU b/c duplicate market with UF ?

Moreover, they'll want the B1G to corner the market and grab all 4 coasts?
UT was about longhorn network as well

I don't think the SEC gets too much with another fl school but FSU is a national brand

FSU to BIG baby......eventually if it all plays out
 

JayDogSmooth

All-Conference
Aug 18, 2006
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UT was about longhorn network as well

I don't think the SEC gets too much with another fl school but FSU is a national brand

FSU to BIG baby......eventually if it all plays out
Ahh I did not consider the Longhorn network aspect

Really nothing would surprise me, except fsu staying in the acc are going to the big 12
 
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Doctor Worm

Heisman
Feb 7, 2002
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The LHN basically destroyed the original Big XII.
Au contraire. The LHN SAVED the Big 12.

What would have destroyed the Big 12 was the defection of UT, OK, OK St, and Texas Tech to the PAC-12. Which in 2010 came THIS CLOSE to happening. The deal-killer? The PAC-12 was unwilling to let Texas establish its own TV network. Without it, Texas said no deal. And without Texas, the PAC-12 said no deal to the other schools.

The Big 12 did allow Texas to establish the LHN. And bought themselves another dozen years of existence. Which brings us to today.

MORAL: Let the big dog eat! I am certain that looking back, the PAC-12 (or what's left of it) wishes they had.
 

SantaFeScarlet

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Aug 8, 2001
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Au contraire. The LHN SAVED the Big 12.

What would have destroyed the Big 12 was the defection of UT, OK, OK St, and Texas Tech to the PAC-12. Which in 2010 came THIS CLOSE to happening. The deal-killer? The PAC-12 was unwilling to let Texas establish its own TV network. Without it, Texas said no deal. And without Texas, the PAC-12 said no deal to the other schools.

The Big 12 did allow Texas to establish the LHN. And bought themselves another dozen years of existence. Which brings us to today.

MORAL: Let the big dog eat! I am certain that looking back, the PAC-12 (or what's left of it) wishes they had.
You are correct...my bad.
 
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Oct 19, 2010
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Au contraire. The LHN SAVED the Big 12.

What would have destroyed the Big 12 was the defection of UT, OK, OK St, and Texas Tech to the PAC-12. Which in 2010 came THIS CLOSE to happening. The deal-killer? The PAC-12 was unwilling to let Texas establish its own TV network. Without it, Texas said no deal. And without Texas, the PAC-12 said no deal to the other schools.

The Big 12 did allow Texas to establish the LHN. And bought themselves another dozen years of existence. Which brings us to today.

MORAL: Let the big dog eat! I am certain that looking back, the PAC-12 (or what's left of it) wishes they had.

Great point on the LHN destroying the Pac-12 expansion. In a sense, the LHN killed both the original Big XII and the Pac 12. Way to go, Texas!
 
Dec 17, 2008
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If that's the case, I don't know that either the B10 or SEC would take them both. 1 each maybe but I don't know if UNC went to one that the other would want NC State or not. Also would the networks pay for overlapping geography, especially if not a high performing school like NC State.