Conference Realignment (Again)

FickusDuckus

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That article seems like a LOT of opinion. Everything he wrote has already been mentioned before by someone else. Most of those ideals ave been lobbed around right here on this forum. There are many valid points but I dont feel like he brought anything new to the discussion.

I do agree heavily with him on some points though. For starters realignment isnt done. I have felt all along the Big 12 is the most vulnerable and most likely to dissolve. No one is happy being under Texas' thumb and thats exactly where they are with maybe only Oklahoma having enough clout to at least fend off their bullying. The rest of that league is run by Texas one way or the other.

The next thing he is right about is the playoff is going to expand sooner rather than later. It wouldnt surprise me if it happens after this coming season. They are thinkng NYE cost them ratings and they may be right but let them not get the results they expect this year when its on a better date and watch how quick they have an emergency meeting (prior to the contract being up) and go to 8 in short order (and I think 16 eventually get in). Money will see to it that this happens.

He also brings up another issue that I have been a proponent of for years and many years ago wrote about it here. You want to see teams put a priority on winning in the sports that make money. Add an element of fear of losing that money and see how quick they right their football or basketball ship. Demote the last place team but do it with some stipulations. Make it to where there are years you can avoid demotion when in last place. The stipulations to that can vary. Lets say you play 7 conference games (your divsion foes) and 5 OOC games (all P5 schools). If you go at least 3-2 in those OOC games you are safe. Maybe not exactly like that but you get the gist of where Im going here. Also make it to where once demoted you cannot be promoted back to the top league unless you post a winning record down in league 2. So lets say Vandy gets demoted. The following year Missouri finishes in last place but Vandy goes 2-10 down in the second division. Missouri is safe. The D2 winner from that league moves up and replaces the team promoted the year before UNLESS the team promoted the prior year made the playoffs. Making the playoffs as a D2 team is a guarantee of another year at the D1 level. In this case they stay and Mizzou joins Vandy in D2 and there are now two former D2 teams playing in the SEC D1 division.

Also you do this down the line. Something like this. SEC is attached to CUSA, CUSA is attacked to the OVC. You go 3 or 4 layers deep to include every "current D1" school be they FBS or FCS. Also you only do this for the 2 revenue producing sports.

This approach adds some fairness but grandfathers in the teams already there. It will assure that teams like ourselves where the admins have been happy to draw a check for many years would have to not only get in gear but stay in gear or said check goes away. It would benefit every fan base in America in the long run because when money is at stake results are expected and if not achieved heads will roll. A consistent flame under the *** of every AD/coach in America.
 

Tskware

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Don't know about national realignment, but I can see where the SEC West teams are not happy about the East teams playing Kentucky and Vandy every year, which usually means two easy wins for Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia while A&M or LSU may only get to play them every once in a while. I would not be surprised if Vandy gets moved West, and one of the Mississippi schools gets put in the East.
 

Grumpyolddawg

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Jun 11, 2001
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That article seems like a LOT of opinion. Everything he wrote has already been mentioned before by someone else. Most of those ideals ave been lobbed around right here on this forum. There are many valid points but I dont feel like he brought anything new to the discussion.

I do agree heavily with him on some points though. For starters realignment isnt done. I have felt all along the Big 12 is the most vulnerable and most likely to dissolve. No one is happy being under Texas' thumb and thats exactly where they are with maybe only Oklahoma having enough clout to at least fend off their bullying. The rest of that league is run by Texas one way or the other.

The next thing he is right about is the playoff is going to expand sooner rather than later. It wouldnt surprise me if it happens after this coming season. They are thinkng NYE cost them ratings and they may be right but let them not get the results they expect this year when its on a better date and watch how quick they have an emergency meeting (prior to the contract being up) and go to 8 in short order (and I think 16 eventually get in). Money will see to it that this happens.

He also brings up another issue that I have been a proponent of for years and many years ago wrote about it here. You want to see teams put a priority on winning in the sports that make money. Add an element of fear of losing that money and see how quick they right their football or basketball ship. Demote the last place team but do it with some stipulations. Make it to where there are years you can avoid demotion when in last place. The stipulations to that can vary. Lets say you play 7 conference games (your divsion foes) and 5 OOC games (all P5 schools). If you go at least 3-2 in those OOC games you are safe. Maybe not exactly like that but you get the gist of where Im going here. Also make it to where once demoted you cannot be promoted back to the top league unless you post a winning record down in league 2. So lets say Vandy gets demoted. The following year Missouri finishes in last place but Vandy goes 2-10 down in the second division. Missouri is safe. The D2 winner from that league moves up and replaces the team promoted the year before UNLESS the team promoted the prior year made the playoffs. Making the playoffs as a D2 team is a guarantee of another year at the D1 level. In this case they stay and Mizzou joins Vandy in D2 and there are now two former D2 teams playing in the SEC D1 division.

Also you do this down the line. Something like this. SEC is attached to CUSA, CUSA is attacked to the OVC. You go 3 or 4 layers deep to include every "current D1" school be they FBS or FCS. Also you only do this for the 2 revenue producing sports.

This approach adds some fairness but grandfathers in the teams already there. It will assure that teams like ourselves where the admins have been happy to draw a check for many years would have to not only get in gear but stay in gear or said check goes away. It would benefit every fan base in America in the long run because when money is at stake results are expected and if not achieved heads will roll. A consistent flame under the *** of every AD/coach in America.


The guy is right, college athletics have transformed formed from something to brag about to being a money producing machine. Talk about 4 16 team super conferences have been around for a number of years. That essentially is what we have now except it is 5 conferences plus ND, which I feel either joins one of the 4 are has no chance for a bowl or championship, see how long it takes until they are applying to join a conference, the issue would be all are full, so one of the P5 teams gets booted. Plus the footprints. Charter members of conferences might be placed in other conferences, in fact it is almost a guarantee, unless you scatter membership regardless of locations. If that happens we could have SEC schools in California. If it is done geographically its almost assured the SEC will lose Missour, A&M, LSU and Arkansas to get the number to 10, then add FSU, Miami,GT, Clemson, NC, Duke, NCST and Wake. That would put the southeastern conference at18, so 2 more would be transferring conferences. It would put either the Kentucky schools in the northeast and keep the Mississippi schools, or move the Mississippi schools to the midwest and keep the Kentucky schools. I don't think any of the fanbases want to leave the SEC, so it will cause some ill feelings whoever leaves. Charter members won't be happy with having to move.

As for as the playoff goes, if it goes to 16 teams, then I think our regular season gets shortened. The 2 teams in the finals would be playing their 17th game of the year with a 12 game regular season. So you are looking at finishing up at the end of January. Many complain about bowl teams getting an extra 15 days of practice, well how about the 2 best teams getting 30 extra days? I personally don't think that is as big a deal as some because it won't be the same guys but many here have said it gives a big advantage to bowl teams over teams who don't play in one. Season is 9 months away and at least 10 or so top players won't be there come fall practice. I do think 17 games is too many. Sure we have complaints from the number 5, 6 and 7 team about getting left out, but with 16 we will get those same complains from 17, 18 and 19 with 16 teams. It will be much tougher defending 16th rank team than it is 4. Conference championship gets you in now for the most part, 2 losses likely puts you out, but at 16, likely with 2 or more losses, the same as 7-8 teams ranked below them. In other words, regardless of number of teams in the playoff, the one ranked one spot below the cutoff will complain, even if 32 were in it.
 
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Onomatopoeia

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I like the article and Fickus great analysis. It's interesting to think about and we can only truly speculate, thats what I'm going to do.

1. Conference alignment isn't over, but is that really Earth shattering? We all know it will happen again. I think a better prediction is to say it is over for the foreseeable future. We won't see any whole sale moves for at least 5 years or so. Then what?

While I find it hard to see SEC going to 16 teams, the ACC has 15 now. Would the SEC got to 16 just because of ACC? Well it would be more money, but with the SEC being a communist conference; all that money is split evenly. So would they be making more money in the end? It would depend on what two teams they could poach.

Who is realistic?

Texas - Would be a good grab, but the SEC wouldn't tolerate Texas. And Texas would never want to be in a conference they didn't run.

Oklahoma - The perfect snatch and very feasible. Not sure they would do it until the Big 12 is almost at it's death knell.

Oklahoma St - Would you bring them with Oklahoma? From a TV market standpoint, there's no reason to.

West Virginia - Another good alternative.

Kansas St - If you're gonna take Oklahoma, then Kansas St will fit in. Kansas St would go before Kansas because Kansas is a basketball school and no one cares about that.

Then if none of those are a go, you have your last resort schools

ECU and Cincinnati are teams that generally sell more tickets a season than Vanderbilt. ECU and Cincy are typically pretty good but couldn't compete with the SEC year in and year out, but neither has Vandy or Kentucky. But these two are the last resort.

As far as Kentucky or Vandy being poached, it would never happen. I remember reading an article years ago (around the first ACC conference shuffle) that said UK, Vandy, and Florida would be the schools the ACC would target in a SEC raid. And that the SEC would fight to keep them. Vandy has great baseball (2nd most popular sport in the south) and the grades to boost a conference.

Although I would be up for UK in the ACC for multiple reasons. One being an easier football schedule. I would also love to see the rupptards get butthurt when they see UK no longer playing a cream puff basketball conference that could could care less about basketball. No longer would there be 1 or 2 loss conference schedules. It would be a legit schedule. Also UK would not be the center of the conference. They would be squarely behind UNC.

All that being said, it would never happen. SEC would probably just close their basketball down if UK left. Literally no one cares about it after you cross Jellico mountain.
 

BlueRattie_rivals

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Call me old fashioned, but I miss the days when conferences were actual reflections of a specific geographic and cultural location. Big East football--for instance--was, you know, a bunch of teams from the northeast. They had their rivalries, recruiting battles, and idiosyncratic distinctions that made it Big East football. Same with every geographic region. Now, there are literally no borders to any conferences. I'm glad, in a way, that TA&M is in the SEC, but the evidently the "E" in SEC is reminder of what we were--not what we are. I know that entrance into a conference is now about expanding the geographic (read: TV) footprint of the conference, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
 

ukalum1988

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Call me old fashioned, but I miss the days when conferences were actual reflections of a specific geographic and cultural location. Big East football--for instance--was, you know, a bunch of teams from the northeast. They had their rivalries, recruiting battles, and idiosyncratic distinctions that made it Big East football. Same with every geographic region. Now, there are literally no borders to any conferences. I'm glad, in a way, that TA&M is in the SEC, but the evidently the "E" in SEC is reminder of what we were--not what we are. I know that entrance into a conference is now about expanding the geographic (read: TV) footprint of the conference, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
Excellent post. I was fine with the SEC when it was a 10-team league. Over time, I came to accept the 12-team concept after Ark and USC joined in. The vision of Roy Kramer, carried on by Mike Slive, really propelled the SEC to the top of the college sports environment. However, I'm still struggling with the 14-team model, and I frankly hate the thought of going to a 16-team league.

One of the few good things I can think of with four 16-team leagues is that would make the College FB playoff a lot easier to implement. You do that, and you could effectively absorb at least one round of a playoff in each league's championship game.
 

BlueRattie_rivals

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So, if alignment looked like what fans actually want, instead of what TV people / league presidents want, what would it look like?
 

EliteBlue

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So, if alignment looked like what fans actually want, instead of what TV people / league presidents want, what would it look like?
Instead of A&M and mizzou the SEC would have taken Nc State and Va Tech. When we expand to 16 the "state rival agreement" would be up for grabs and FSU and Clemson/Ga Tech would be heavily considered.

The ACC should have taken WVU, uofl, kept Maryland, Pitt, Cuse and other northeast semi coastal teams. Maybe Rutgers or something.
 

bryan211999

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It's pretty simple, Vandy made more money than Oklahoma. If you are Oklahoma's admin would you stand for this while Texas makes more because of the Long Horn network? It's a matter of time before the Big 12 divides up unless something changes.

Now what happens to schools like Kasnas and Kanas State will be interesting. They may get left out of the power conferences.
 

Blue Decade

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This article is from someone who claims to be in media and talks about how TV money is going to drive a move to 4 16-team power conferences with some programs moving in and out of their traditional conferences. It predicts Vandy getting sent to CUSA and implies someone else might head there at least for football.
I don't believe the SEC will jettison any of its current members. But the guy who thinks TV mega money is driving and will continue to drive conference realignment is fundamentally correct.
 

BlueRattie_rivals

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A guy can wish. . .

5 Power Conferences with 12-14 Teams
  • · Power Conferences Send 2 Teams to National Tournament
3 Regional (minor) Conferences with 12-14 Teams.
  • · Regional Conference Teams send 1 Team to National Tournament
3 “At Large” teams will be invited to the National Tournament.



Round of 16: Teams with higher ranking get Home Game

Round of 8: Team with higher ranking get preferential neutral site game

Final Four: BSC Championship Bowls Format.
 

Deeeefense

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for the most part the recent realignments have been upgrades or at best neutral moves for a team from the standpoint of quality and prestige. A&M and Missouri to the SEC, West Virginia to the b12, Maryland to the B10, but what is being offered up here is a realignment that would be very detrimental to numerous programs not to mention the negative financial impact. Because of the negative impact on the programs and their fans the possibility of this taking place is probably nil IMO.
 
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BlueRattie_rivals

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It's pretty simple, Vandy made more money than Oklahoma. If you are Oklahoma's admin would you stand for this while Texas makes more because of the Long Horn network? It's a matter of time before the Big 12 divides up unless something changes.

Now what happens to schools like Kasnas and Kanas State will be interesting. They may get left out of the power conferences.


If Kansas State get's the cold should that would be a shame. They've built a quality program with second tier facilities, recruits, and location. They deserve better.
 

BlueRattie_rivals

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for the most part the recent realignments have been upgrades or at best neutral moves for a team from the standpoint of quality and prestige. A&M and Missouri to the SEC, West Virginia to the b12, Maryland to the B10, but what is being offered up here is a realignment that would be very detrimental to numerous programs not to mention the negative financial impact. Because of the negative impact on the programs and their fans the possibility of this taking place is probably nil IMO.


I agree. A realignment plan that would 1) make sense and 2) please the fans would be impossible in the current NCAA / TV environment.
 

UKSanders_rivals37733

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It wouldn't surprise me if conference realignment may be "encouraged" if the NCAA doesn't hammer UNC in light of their 25 yrs of academic fraud... at least it would if I were an AD for a power 5 conference team.

IF the NCAA isn't going to uphold one of their main responsibilities, then everyone is finally admitting the major NCAA sports are (sadly) more about money than student-athletes.

If that's the case, why continue as part of the organization?
 
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Blue Decade

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It wouldn't surprise me if conference realignment may be "encouraged" if the NCAA doesn't hammer UNC in light of their 25 yrs of academic fraud... at least it would if I were an AD for a power 5 conference team.

IF the NCAA isn't going to uphold one of their main responsibilities, then everyone is finally admitting the major NCAA sports are (sadly) more about money than student-athletes.

If that's the case, why continue as part of the organization?
I see this kind of complaint about the NCAA a lot here, and it makes me wonder if people understand what the NCAA really is. The NCAA is organized and managed by its member schools. It is not the police, and never was. It is nothing more than a collection of individuals and committees hired by the schools to provide a structure to represent their interests. Enforcement of rules is 1 of their interests, because any system must have rules. But acquisition and distribution of money is always the primary goal in any industry. In the last 2 decades, TV money has exploded because of cable and satellite. Realignment of conferences is being done to maximize TV revenue acquisition by the member schools. When you think about it, this is pretty easy to understand.
 

Michigan Fan

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I see this kind of complaint about the NCAA a lot here, and it makes me wonder if people understand what the NCAA really is. The NCAA is organized and managed by its member schools. It is not the police, and never was. It is nothing more than a collection of individuals and committees hired by the schools to provide a structure to represent their interests. Enforcement of rules is 1 of their interests, because any system must have rules. But acquisition and distribution of money is always the primary goal in any industry. In the last 2 decades, TV money has exploded because of cable and satellite. Realignment of conferences is being done to maximize TV revenue acquisition by the member schools. When you think about it, this is pretty easy to understand.

Pretty much nailed it...the Bold says it all...
 

Ctroberts1024

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It's only a matter of time before the Big 12 dissolves. Texas killed that conference with the Longhorn network.

I think the SEC should go after Oklahoma and Virginia Tech. Both are historically good football schools and have a large fan base. It'll add in two completely new markets for the SEC as well. There's been some talks that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have a pact that the new conference must take both.

I think within 10 years (maybe sooner) that there will only be the Pac 12, B1G, ACC and SEC. The Big 12 may still be around, but most of the schools in it right now are actively trying to leave.
 
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Michigan Fan

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It's only a matter of time before the Big 12 dissolves. Texas killed that conference with the Longhorn network.

I think the SEC should go after Oklahoma and Virginia Tech. Both are historically good football schools and have a large fan base. It'll add in two completely new markets for the SEC as well. There's been some talks that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have a pact that the new conference must take both.

I think within 10 years (maybe sooner) that there will only be the Pac 12, B1G, ACC and SEC. The Big 12 may still be around, but most of the schools in it right now are actively trying to leave.

You're correct about the LHN...it caused a rift when it was born and the members like OU & KU aren't really happy about it.
 

Grumpyolddawg

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I like the article and Fickus great analysis. It's interesting to think about and we can only truly speculate, thats what I'm going to do.

1. Conference alignment isn't over, but is that really Earth shattering? We all know it will happen again. I think a better prediction is to say it is over for the foreseeable future. We won't see any whole sale moves for at least 5 years or so. Then what?

While I find it hard to see SEC going to 16 teams, the ACC has 15 now. Would the SEC got to 16 just because of ACC? Well it would be more money, but with the SEC being a communist conference; all that money is split evenly. So would they be making more money in the end? It would depend on what two teams they could poach.

Who is realistic?

Texas - Would be a good grab, but the SEC wouldn't tolerate Texas. And Texas would never want to be in a conference they didn't run.

Oklahoma - The perfect snatch and very feasible. Not sure they would do it until the Big 12 is almost at it's death knell.

Oklahoma St - Would you bring them with Oklahoma? From a TV market standpoint, there's no reason to.

West Virginia - Another good alternative.

Kansas St - If you're gonna take Oklahoma, then Kansas St will fit in. Kansas St would go before Kansas because Kansas is a basketball school and no one cares about that.

Then if none of those are a go, you have your last resort schools

ECU and Cincinnati are teams that generally sell more tickets a season than Vanderbilt. ECU and Cincy are typically pretty good but couldn't compete with the SEC year in and year out, but neither has Vandy or Kentucky. But these two are the last resort.

As far as Kentucky or Vandy being poached, it would never happen. I remember reading an article years ago (around the first ACC conference shuffle) that said UK, Vandy, and Florida would be the schools the ACC would target in a SEC raid. And that the SEC would fight to keep them. Vandy has great baseball (2nd most popular sport in the south) and the grades to boost a conference.

Although I would be up for UK in the ACC for multiple reasons. One being an easier football schedule. I would also love to see the rupptards get butthurt when they see UK no longer playing a cream puff basketball conference that could could care less about basketball. No longer would there be 1 or 2 loss conference schedules. It would be a legit schedule. Also UK would not be the center of the conference. They would be squarely behind UNC.

All that being said, it would never happen. SEC would probably just close their basketball down if UK left. Literally no one cares about it after you cross Jellico mountain.


I don't think there will be an SEC and ACC. The conferences will combine and 10-12 teams in those two conferences will no longer belong to either one of them. If there are 4 conferences, I think it will break down to the Southeastern, Northern, Midwest and West, all with 16 teams. I don't think poaching is the right term, more of a realignment will be what happens to fit the 64 P5 teams into a Super4. One of the 64 is very likely to get dropped to make room for ND. If all the TV money is put into one lump sum, there is no need to have a big footprint. Like I said, I believe the Mississippi schools will be shipped to the Midwest conference with LSU, Arky, A&M and Missour and the teams in Kentucky play in the Southeastern, or the Teams from Kentucky get moved to the Northern conference and the Mississippi schools stay in the southeast conference. Either one will make fanbases unhappy. But I could see a conference of Virgina, VT, WV, Pitt, PSU, Rutgers, Syracuse, tOSU, Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern, ND, Mich, MichSt, Kentucky and Louisville. Now that isn't what I am saying is going to happen, but I think its a real possibility if they go to the super conferences.
 

WildCard

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FWIW, ever since the realignment wheels started turning I have thought the "best" competitive arrangement for big time college football would be 4 super leagues of 18 teams each divided into two 9 team divisions. Seventy two teams total would allow grandfathering in programs that really don't deserve the spot as well as adding some programs that do deserve a spot but are presently on the outside looking in.

Believe it or not, there was a time when this could have been done with minimum subtraction to the 4 super leagues. Essentially, the BIG XII-II and Big East would be dissolved and those teams (as well as deserving others) would be accommodated in the ACC, SEC BIG, and PAC. It could be fine tuned by the movement of a few team from their traditional conference to another conference. The advantages are:

> 8 game divisional home and away determines division champ allowing 4 slots to schedule as you wish (hard, easy, traditional opponents in other conferences/division, etc.) without impairing your chance to get into playoff picture

> 8 divisional champs play each other as "first round" of playoffs; winners go into 4 team national playoff

The key would be establishing and maintaining some kind of "competitive balance" among the 8 divisions. this might have been possible just after the original ACC raid of the Big East but subsequent conference changes would make it much more difficult now.

All theoretical. JMO.

Peace
 

vhcat70

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Don't know about national realignment, but I can see where the SEC West teams are not happy about the East teams playing Kentucky and Vandy every year, which usually means two easy wins for Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia while A&M or LSU may only get to play them every once in a while. I would not be surprised if Vandy gets moved West, and one of the Mississippi schools gets put in the East.
No reason the alignment has to stay the way it is. It's a common choice. if some are unhappy, then they can do something.
 

Grumpyolddawg

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FWIW, ever since the realignment wheels started turning I have thought the "best" competitive arrangement for big time college football would be 4 super leagues of 18 teams each divided into two 9 team divisions. Seventy two teams total would allow grandfathering in programs that really don't deserve the spot as well as adding some programs that do deserve a spot but are presently on the outside looking in.

Believe it or not, there was a time when this could have been done with minimum subtraction to the 4 super leagues. Essentially, the BIG XII-II and Big East would be dissolved and those teams (as well as deserving others) would be accommodated in the ACC, SEC BIG, and PAC. It could be fine tuned by the movement of a few team from their traditional conference to another conference. The advantages are:

> 8 game divisional home and away determines division champ allowing 4 slots to schedule as you wish (hard, easy, traditional opponents in other conferences/division, etc.) without impairing your chance to get into playoff picture

> 8 divisional champs play each other as "first round" of playoffs; winners go into 4 team national playoff

The key would be establishing and maintaining some kind of "competitive balance" among the 8 divisions. this might have been possible just after the original ACC raid of the Big East but subsequent conference changes would make it much more difficult now.

All theoretical. JMO.

Peace

!8 would be a good number and allow both the Mississippi and Kentucky schools to stay in the southeaster division. But how do you determine who the additional 8 teams would be? ND would obviously be one if they ever get off their ego trip and join a conference. BSU could be another option, Houston this year will be able to be most of the P5 teams. Then you have Memphis, another southeast team which is already full, but Tennessee doesn't really count it as part of the state so it could fall into thmidwest group I guess. Texas could pratically fill the midwest division with 7-8 teams, LSU, OU, OSU, Arky, Missour, Kansas, KSU, Iowa, Iowa State and Nebraska. Of course no one wants to be in a conference with Texas, they will try to run it. That isn't a bad number Card. Getting the divisions balanced would be tricky. I don't think anyone would be happy if the 3 best teams were in one division, That's an interesting idea.
 

rmattox

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Don't care about bball, but would like to see the 64-80 main football schools simply leave the ncaa and establish their own rules for Football.
No problem with them splitting into 4-5 big conferences, but from that point, here's what I'd like to see:

Develop a scheduling structure similar to that of the NFL (or at least what they used to do). If the SEC became a 20 team conf, break it into four divisions. You have to play everyone in your division (4 games) then one team from each of the other three divisions on a rotating basis (3 games).

At that point, do what the NFL does/used to do....For example if a team goes 0-12, for their ooc games, they play the predetermined ooc schedule pairing teams with poor records from the previous year. Weaker teams would play an ooc schedule vs teams with similarly poor ooc records from the previous year. On the other hand, say Bama wins the nc, their ooc schedule may consist of teams that won their conference or at least their division the previous year. While college Football will never have parity at the level of the nfl, there could be much more parity in the college game.
 
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The most likely scenario would be the break up of the Big 12. The Longhorn Network is a disaster costing ESPN a loss of jobs and income. The SEC network has cannibalized the Longhorn Network. Expansion is a matter of weak choices in possibly Brigham Young, Boise State etc. WVU gives nothing to a league in the Midwest. Why aren't the Mountaineers in the ACC? Look for Texas to join the Pac 12 while OU and OSU go to the SEC despite small TV markets. The rest of the Big 12 goes to the Big 10 or elsewhere. All this is interesting speculation. Yet, at the end of the day, change for the sake of a better playoff (huge incredible TV money for ESPN, streaming, cable and networks) is inevitable.
 

Blue Decade

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It's only a matter of time before the Big 12 dissolves. Texas killed that conference with the Longhorn network.

I think the SEC should go after Oklahoma and Virginia Tech. Both are historically good football schools and have a large fan base. It'll add in two completely new markets for the SEC as well. There's been some talks that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have a pact that the new conference must take both.

I think within 10 years (maybe sooner) that there will only be the Pac 12, B1G, ACC and SEC. The Big 12 may still be around, but most of the schools in it right now are actively trying to leave.
The SEC has already gone after Oklahoma because Oklahoma gets covered in the Dallas and Oklahoma City media markets. The SEC does not need VA Tech. The SEC pursued Maryland in an attempt to get the Washington and Baltimore TV markets, but Maryland chose the Big Ten instead. VA Tech doesn't get as much Washington media coverage as Maryland gets. Bringing in T A&M got the Houston media market. I think the SEC is done with expansion for several years, until the Big 12 or the ACC destabilizes. The state of Texas is a natural area for SEC expansion although T A&M's permission will be needed. Oklahoma would also be a desirable target but OU also has options with the Big 10 and PAC 12.
 

murpack

Redshirt
Oct 16, 2004
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What is always lost in these discussions are the "non revenue sports". It is expensive for instance to send a baseball team or a women's field hockey team from Boston College to Miami. Also from Iowa to Maryland. There was a suggestion a few years ago from coach K and others for football to have its alignment while basketball and the other sports keep affiliations that are based more on regional considerations.

I think ultimately that is where things will end up, but it will take 20-30 years with a couple of permutations in the meantime.
 

Perrin75

Senior
Aug 9, 2001
3,810
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The author makes some good points, but I don't think he has a firm grasp on how the conferences work. First, the SEC and the Big 10 are the real money makers here. They will most likely be able to handpick their targets for the next round of expansion. Second, Vanderbilt and Kentucky would not be the target for removal from the SEC, nor would they be looking to move. Vandy brings in a ton of cash to the SEC in more ways than just football, and Kentucky football generates a ton of revenue on its own. The only school that I could see possibly moving out of the SEC would be Mississippi State and that is a big if. They certainly wouldn't be looking to move, and would have to be pushed out. In terms of what they mean to the conference, Mississippi St would certainly be on the bottom but that doesn't mean that there is any interest in pushing them out.
 

ville 77

Redshirt
Jul 15, 2013
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I think the only thing that is certain is that if their is consolidation to 4 major super cobferences the B-12 would have to be the conference cut up. We could debate on the strengths of the ACC or B-12 but that has nothing to do with it. Simple logistics is that if you go to 4 conferences the P-12 has to add 4 teams and there is zero chance that any school East of the Miss moves to play in the Pacific Time. Zone.

Easy yo say but the B-12 is Broken up.

2 teams to B-10
2 teams to SEC
4 teams to the P-12
1 team to ACC

And Iowa St is in a bad spot

WV would be the assumed ACC school but I would suggest WV to the SEC and Vandy to the ACC would work well.
 
Oct 1, 2001
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I think the only thing that is certain is that if their is consolidation to 4 major super cobferences the B-12 would have to be the conference cut up. We could debate on the strengths of the ACC or B-12 but that has nothing to do with it. Simple logistics is that if you go to 4 conferences the P-12 has to add 4 teams and there is zero chance that any school East of the Miss moves to play in the Pacific Time. Zone.

Easy yo say but the B-12 is Broken up.

2 teams to B-10
2 teams to SEC
4 teams to the P-12
1 team to ACC

And Iowa St is in a bad spot

WV would be the assumed ACC school but I would suggest WV to the SEC and Vandy to the ACC would work well.
Nice, intelligent comments. The scenario you suggest will never happen.
 

UKSanders_rivals37733

All-American
Jan 1, 2003
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I see this kind of complaint about the NCAA a lot here, and it makes me wonder if people understand what the NCAA really is. The NCAA is organized and managed by its member schools. It is not the police, and never was. It is nothing more than a collection of individuals and committees hired by the schools to provide a structure to represent their interests. Enforcement of rules is 1 of their interests, because any system must have rules. But acquisition and distribution of money is always the primary goal in any industry. In the last 2 decades, TV money has exploded because of cable and satellite. Realignment of conferences is being done to maximize TV revenue acquisition by the member schools. When you think about it, this is pretty easy to understand.


Encouraged probably was a bad word to use. What I intended was actually in line with what you said above... the power 5 conferences know they are the major money maker, so my intent was to say they may feel they will police themselves if the NCAA committee won't.
 

Perrin75

Senior
Aug 9, 2001
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753
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The problem with the scenario of simply breaking up the Big 12 to get to a certain number is that some of the Big 12 schools simply aren't that desirable. Texas and Oklahoma are slam dunks, but after that it gets hard to determine which teams might move the needle when it comes to adding TV markets and revenue to a new conference. TCU might be the third most valuable school in that whole conference simply because of the access they offer to the DFW TV market. And would you rather have a team like Houston or Memphis who are in growing markets, or a team like Kansas St who barely has a market?

The next round of expansion may actually be triggered by the Big 12. They have several schools who have no clear ticket to another conference if this whole thing gets started again. They might make efforts to quickly expand to 16 to try and ensure they are still part of the Power group when the dust settles.
 

Grumpyolddawg

Heisman
Jun 11, 2001
28,381
37,124
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Instead of A&M and mizzou the SEC would have taken Nc State and Va Tech. When we expand to 16 the "state rival agreement" would be up for grabs and FSU and Clemson/Ga Tech would be heavily considered.

The ACC should have taken WVU, uofl, kept Maryland, Pitt, Cuse and other northeast semi coastal teams. Maybe Rutgers or something.

As things stand right now, Clemson, FSU, GT nor Louisville will ever be members of the SEC. UF, USC, UGA and UK don't want either of those 4 in and will vote together to keep those 4 out. Odd thing is GT was a chartered member and decided to leave. But if it goes the super conference route that most likely won't hold any longer. Virginia and VT are tied together by their state legislature and how VT got in the ACC. Same deal with OU and OK.ST, they have to be in the same conference. So there is no taking VT without Virginia or OU without State.. VT and Virginia would be a good way of getting Missouri to the West division. Or bring in OU and state and move Auburn to the east.
 

Sin The

All-Conference
Apr 24, 2007
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The article is a bunch of speculative garbage. Kentucky is not leaving the SEC for CUSA. The whole notion is laughable.