your point "we just don't know" is the truth. he didn't lose or win the game for us, and the opponent was awful. I don't think anyone here has a different outlook on the season based on Wimsatt's play on Sunday.
Credit to Gavin
- Thread starter BillyC80
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hell yeah he deserves credit. looked like a completely different person out there, that's a result of good old hard work during the offseason combined with having an upgrade at OC. He was much more decisive and aware of the field in his pre and post snap reads. The OL did a much better job as well. Great job all-around, hopefully this is a continuing trend.
Note I thought was interesting from nj.com film review:
“A more granular note: Ciarrocca put Wimsatt in play-action on nearly half of his dropbacks, and the early results are clear: the quarterback is significantly better in non-play action snaps (12/15, 125 yards, 1 TD) than in play-action (5/14, 38 yards).”
“A more granular note: Ciarrocca put Wimsatt in play-action on nearly half of his dropbacks, and the early results are clear: the quarterback is significantly better in non-play action snaps (12/15, 125 yards, 1 TD) than in play-action (5/14, 38 yards).”
So- looking at last season's losses to teams like Iowa/Neb/Ind/MST
Our QBs averaged
220 yds, 1 TD 1.25 Int 2.5 sacks and only had 1 rushing TD
You don't think a game like Sunday's by our QB could have made a difference? Or at least have you look at the possibility of this season better.
And against the two "weaker" BC/Temple teams that we won- our QB's were even worse. So, to say that NWU is not good, has some merit but last year- our QB's were horrible against weaker teams.
One thing I assume the coaches have noticed and will have Gavin work on is his "tell" for a pass vs. run play at least on some plays. On some passes (not all), he starts to lean back slightly just before the snap and every time he does this it's a pass, whereas on every run play he never leans back before the snap.
Were BC and Temple weaker than Northwestern ? Doubtful. Northwestern 1-8 in conference last two years and 1-11 & 3-9 overall.
One game isn't a trend. I hope he's much improved over last year but we have to see more against decent teams.
Again, Sunday's performance doesn't change the season outlook.
One game isn't a trend. I hope he's much improved over last year but we have to see more against decent teams.
Again, Sunday's performance doesn't change the season outlook.
Wimsatt better in every way. Ran the ball a bit, effectively and looked good doing it. Bought time against the rush and made some plays outside the pocket. Makes line drive throws on the run with more velocity than previous years starters could make in a pocket, with their feet set.
But offense is a team game. He's improving, the whole offense is improving and that's what you want to see. It's highly likely not going to be enough to close the gap against the upper tier of the conference. No doubt, all the bratty, man boy fans will be whining after Michigan and OSU.
The defense is improving, the offense is improving the strength and conditioning is improving, recruiting is improving. Just root for the team, applaud the effort they have put in and support them, win or lose. There is the path of being a mature, grown up and understanding the challenge the team faces in this conference. You don't have to be an internet brat, waiting for adversity to scream about the coach and the QB. It's lame and counter productive in every way. The program practices in a bubble, doesn't sell out its stadium, is at a huge disadvantage in NIL...temper expectations.
Thanks for the chance to rant.
But offense is a team game. He's improving, the whole offense is improving and that's what you want to see. It's highly likely not going to be enough to close the gap against the upper tier of the conference. No doubt, all the bratty, man boy fans will be whining after Michigan and OSU.
The defense is improving, the offense is improving the strength and conditioning is improving, recruiting is improving. Just root for the team, applaud the effort they have put in and support them, win or lose. There is the path of being a mature, grown up and understanding the challenge the team faces in this conference. You don't have to be an internet brat, waiting for adversity to scream about the coach and the QB. It's lame and counter productive in every way. The program practices in a bubble, doesn't sell out its stadium, is at a huge disadvantage in NIL...temper expectations.
Thanks for the chance to rant.
We came into the game wondering if we had a QB who could play P5 level. Over the past bunch of years, we have not had a QB who could perform even against bad P5 teams.
Gavin could have come in and threw a TD, 2 Int, get sackd 3 times and fumble the ball and we win 17-10
That is where I say the win is scary
Gavin scored twice, threw some passes we havent seen in years, run with confidence, no Int and no sacks.
Even against a bad P5 team- that is still performing.
Maybe it does not jump out to say- we have a top QB but it certainly makes going into Temple/VaTech and a few other Conference teams much easier on our minds than if Gavin sucked.
Ask Clemson fans this morning if feelings about "going into..." games matters. I don't care about the before. I care about the outcomes. So far, so good. But this game was certainly not a test case for valid projections. Playing well against Michigan would mean something.
If Gavin was 120 yds, 2 Int, 1 fumble sacked 3 times against NWU on Sunday, even if we won...wouldn't your outlook for games like VaTech and Temple be worse?
Temple and BC both finished 3-9 last year against weaker schedules than NW (especially Temple as 2 of Temple's wins were against 1AA teams and NW barely lost to Duke, while Temple got blown out by them), so I think it's a fair comparison that Wimsatt was much better against a weak team this year than he was against a couple of weak teams last year. Doesn't guarantee a bowl or anything, but to say he didn't have his best game of his career yesterday is just putting your head in the sand.
If Gavin and this team can show steady improvement in the areas most here had doubts about then it gives hope going forward. Another player who is a BEAST… Shaquan Loyal was highly touted coming out of High School and Schiano has made that known. This youngster can hit and you can see his physical development in the strength program.
Ok, sure, best game of his career. Mario Mendoza has 4 career home runs in 9 MLB years. But in those 4 games, wow.
Did he play well ? Yes. Am just saying Wimsatt's play doesn't change the season outlook at all. That's what I care about. Knowing we are not the worst team in the conference is not a ringing endorsement of the 2023 squad.
Let's compete in the remaining conference games before judging.
Look, I get your point about this game not guaranteeing anything, but maybe just leave out the irrelevant snark. Mendoza had 4 HRs in probably 1000+ games, so those 4 are extreme outliers, statistically, whereas Gavin now, arguably has one very good performance against a weak team vs. two mediocre performances against weak teams, so statistically, the NW game is highly relevant with regard to improvement and not an outlier.
If I’m not mistaken, this was Gavin’s first time playing the whole game. As far as I’m concerned this was game 1 of the rest of his career.
The shuffling in and out last season was not a good barometer of his ability to lead this team. Not to mention he was injured last year.
Definitely optimistic now based on his performance on Sunday.
The shuffling in and out last season was not a good barometer of his ability to lead this team. Not to mention he was injured last year.
Definitely optimistic now based on his performance on Sunday.
Analyzing his play in one game is fine....but the rosy extrapolation/projection above isn't valid. That's what ticks me off. Same with the Gavin Griffiths being a one-and-done lottery pick nonsense. The kid hasn't played 1 second of college basketball. These unfounded assertions bother the hell out of me, and are what generate my negativity.
Fieldhouse Al and multiple other ignorant "fans" usually don't have any sense of reality. After the game Knight Shift boasted how it was Ciarrocca's decision to go for it on those first qtr 4th downs. Is this forum comprised 95% of imbeciles ? I think it is.
And no, 1 game's performance isn't highly relevant or statistically significant evidence of anything. You more than most should know that.
What rosy projections are you talking about? I've seen very few people doing that. I still think we're a 4-5 win team, although I think the odds of 6 just went up a bit. I wouldn't call that "rosy." I also haven't noticed more than a very few saying Griffiths will be one and done - I certainly don't, but I do think he'll be very good.
Also, you're simply wrong on the stats. I was making a relative comparison and 1 out of 3 being "good" is far more relevant than 4 out of 1000 being "good," but it is true that 1 game is a weak statistical predictor of future outcomes (hence my having just nudged my expecations up a little bit). If you saved your snark for people who are being outlandish, you'd probably get far less grief for being circumspect.
football is not transitive by any stretch of the imagination
I tend to agree with Shelby in that it's 1 game. I wish Gav started every game last year and he should have but he didn't. He'll get better but I think it's good to wait and see given we played a team in complete disarray who still had opportunities but couldn't capitalize.
fun discussion though
Yep, it's true that none of us knows the future, although it's fun to guess at it. I'd like to think we can all at least agree that it was his best overall game and that if he can not panic against better competition that we'll at least be better on offense than last year - even if the record might not get much better, since we have a brutal schedule outside of NW/Temple (not a gimee)/Wagner, our only 3 games I feel are strong locks for us to win (Wagner being a 100% lock). But if we can get to 4-1, then 5 wins is very doable and 6 becomes a stretch but possible.
I'm right there and wanted him to start from day since he was 'the future' of the offense. He's going to make mistakes, don't like that he doesn't pull it and run when he can (that's on Greg) but I'm loving what I have seen from this thus far. Last year I put up a long post on him, people need to be patient, he'll deliver
I'm almost of the opinion we ought to 'run and shoot' the offense with the talent we have
Sure, 4 out of 1000 yields more data points and that’s why 1 game is meaningless.
Remember Yolanda Vega from the televised nightly lottery draw ? Imagine there are 12 ping pong balls in the tumbler with a QBR rating for each game. The first ball drawn has 117 on it. Please solve for the avg QBR for all 12 balls in the tumbler. I’ll wait.
And the above sampling example doesn’t take opponent strength variability into account.
Remember Yolanda Vega from the televised nightly lottery draw ? Imagine there are 12 ping pong balls in the tumbler with a QBR rating for each game. The first ball drawn has 117 on it. Please solve for the avg QBR for all 12 balls in the tumbler. I’ll wait.
And the above sampling example doesn’t take opponent strength variability into account.
Why do you take over every positive thread with your negative Cuse self? It is annoying as F
We were the worst passing team in the B1G last year and look how we did. We are not trying to say how he did against NWU moves the needle much for the final record but to downplay how much it is a positive, is just silly.
There were two major areas of improvement we needed to see to avoid a disaster of a season- QB/OL
Both obviously improved over last year and neither played poorly- even if against a bad P5 team. We see improvement and it gives us hope as fans because these are two areas that couldnt even hold their own against a bad G5 team last year.
33% is more statistically relevant than 0.4%, even with a very small sample size - and to be honest it's more than 1 out of 3, if we're talking about completion percentage for example: 17-29 (59%) with 1 TD and 0 INTs vs. NW compared to 10-23 (43%) with 1 TD and 2 INTs against BC/Temple/Wagner is the real comparison of GW's performance against "weak" teams. And I never said anything about strength of opponent other than defining NW as likely "similar" to weak teams from last year, like BC/Temple/Wagner. He may implode completely against the ranked teams we're going to face - I have no idea - but I do think he'll do better than he did last year against such teams.
Einstein....1 win against NU has no bearing on it being 'a disaster of a season.' How do you define a disaster ? So, no, nothing is obvious after 1 game. Before the game most predictions were 4-5 wins. Same predictions now.
Last year we started 1-0 as well and comments just like yours were made. Huge win,etc. But how did 2022 work out ?
And the worst part is he makes poor statistical arguments in defense of his negative positions. We all know that Gavin might still struggle against very good teams, but I think most of us are confident, based on yesterday, that he's at least made a decent stride forward against bad teams and hopefully that will translate at least somewhat to better teams.
I completely disagree. 33% isn't a relevant metric. He's 33% what ? In what way is he 1 for 3 and what does that mean to evaluate him ? (Hint: it means nothing, just like drawing 1 ping pong ball tells nothing about the remaining 11. But if you draw 1000 balls and just 4 are HR, that tells you a great deal about HR probability).
Go back to your books. I'm surprised you are so off on our modeling concepts.
You clearly don't understand statistics or maybe I didn't do a great job of explaining it, but either way, I'm tired of this discussion, since all of this is hypothetical stuff and you are unable to entertain probability-based hypothetical discussions, which is fine - it means there's zero point in having the discussion. See you at the end of the season.
Our RB room though not as well known in the conference and country (just yet ) is actually as strong as any . Young , Monangai , Brown , Benjamin , Salaam, I’m gonna put Rochelle into this mix as well. With Winowich and Gurrieri comng at mI’d year I’m feeling pretty happy .Kirk made Minnesota a great RB team for several years under PJ Fleck.
Speaking of KC- our team is so much better built for his brand of offense now. And hopefully, he had a good understanding with Greg that it is HIS offense to run- unlike 2009.
PF with the OL is also a HR-
We did not see delay of games, we did not see any confusion, even when changing plays at the LOS, no jumps etc...
I don't know if we have the talent yet but it looks like these kids are finally being taught fundamentals.
8 minutes left in opening quarter
overthrew Chris Long while rolling out right, Long had two steps on his guy in end zone
So….he over threw a receiver . Well good golly miss Molly. You do understand that does happen even to QB’s like a Mahomes, Brady etc.
I don't look FOR positives or negatives - things are what they are and I try to stay clinical.
I played in HS and college and I can tell things about teams in the first minutes
Wimsatt looked ok and some of the fellas made some nice plays.
But truth is Northwestern is a hideous team who probably loses every game in 23.
While a win is positive its not really a measure of anything
Some NW players and coaches hate colleges admins so much they hardly want to win for them.
Few cfb teamsever get as toxic and tortured as NW is at the moment
RU ball has been bad for a long time now and I don't listen to Schiano anymore.
He's been complaining about RU's lack of red zone offense for 20 years
I want to stop playing Butch Davis ball (Miami ) from the 1990s.
Depth is always a problem for RU and when a good player goes down (like Crook) the season is basically over.
VT was awful last year so probably not until Michigan will we know if RU is ok.
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Actually , I don’t care that you played in high school and college. Clinical? See you reveal yourself quite well. Butch Davis … and dislike for Schiano tells me and others you are only here to rag on Rutgers. Here’s one thing you forget to mention about Schiano . He’s been in many top positions and at many schools . You know the schools and positions he’s had. You also know the other schools who offered him jobs. They’re either all stupid or Schiano brings something they find desirable. Meanwhile champ you’re posting on a sports board. With your experience and cache you should be coaching at D1. I doubt that is in your wheelhouse. Go find another team to rag on . That’s all you do here is post how bad Rutger’s has been find another board.