current events thread

dtrain79

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Like deaths during Covid that are woefully unreported nationally AND worldwide.

We don't denigrate the data, just the methodology used to let you to assume it as factual.

Especially when you have NO experience with actual law enforcement or criminals, or at least none you've exclaimed here.

I don't need law enforcement experience to understand data related to crime reporting. This has nothing to do with the mechanics of policing.

Yes, there are limitations to crime reporting (and the FBI data a few years ago wasn't particularly good, tho it's back in decent shape now). Which is of course why I cite to murder over and over, the data limitations aren't there. AND ... whether murders are increasing or decreasing is a good stand in for most violent crime (not all), particularly shootings, assaults, and even armed robberies (it's less linked to sex crimes and auto-related crimes).

The bottom line is that you and at least one other person argued repeatedly that crime was exploding in 2024 because you wanted Trump to win and crime is/was a good issue for him. But it wasn't true, crime began dropping in 2023 and was plummeting in 2024. It's still plummeting.

That's great, Trump can take all the credit in the world. But the dynamics of why crime spiked and dropped had almost nothing to do with Trump or Biden. And as I've stipulated here ... I prefer Trump's anti-crime agenda to Biden's (it's not close either). It's just that the data clearly indicated whomever won would get to celebrate a decreasing crime rate.
 
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ILisBest

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This is the argument against whatever the DC police/leaders have been doing. The city is too dangerous, even if improving.

I don't understand why you guys are all so obsessed with denigrating the data. You'd be citing to it if it established the "crime is getting worse" point.

Here's the reality, crime data has done a very nice job tracking the general sentiment on crime in the US. Crime really was horrific from at some point in the 1970s to the mid-1990s, and it was a top shelf political issue much of this era. It really did drop a ton from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s (hence crime receding as a political issue). And the aftermath of the Ferguson and Floyd rioting really did lead to crime spikes (the first more localized/second more generalized), which is why we are discussing crime today.

But I do think it's clear that we are moving quickly to a point where crime is just not a front burner topic of political discussion, because it's falling dramatically again, likely to under the roughly 2014 lows since we've kept the data.
I think there are a few reasons to list why others in here are not completely aligned with your thinking:

1 I can post a long specific answer from AI as to the grocery list of government inaccuracies in all statistical areas including crime that cause any honest thinker to pause on any government data.

2 Police leaders can and have altered numbers to make themselves look better.

3 Big city prosecutors not prosecuting crime, lowers crime statistics.

4 Lack of police numbers in liberal cities to investigate crime that has happened.

5 Police stop arresting criminals knowing they will just be let off for the crime.

6 Police not wanting to get involved for fear of lawsuits or other retaliation against them.

7 Asher is taking his stats from where to analyze for you? Is he the anti-Trumper that works with Mother Jones?
 

bucshon

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To families trying to keep their children safe in the Anacostia, Shaw, and Columbia Heights areas of Washington, DC, the "crime is down" mantra is tragically comical.

It sounds great to people living in gated neighborhoods in Bethesda, MD or Great Falls, VA.

I wonder what the response would be in the rich suburbs if homicide and drug overdose were the leading causes of death among its citizens ages 15-34. How would the media report on it? What would the response be from the government?

Violence is not an inevitable part of urban life in America. It's unacceptable.
 
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Uncoach

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I want to know more about this. It can’t be that hard to see the deer is blind and being taken care of. How about having some graciousness with the situation and helping the family get the proper permit? Nah. Just shoot the animal. Of course there could be some information left out of the story, but shooting a blind deer instead of getting it to a caretaker/zookeeper is ridiculous.

 
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bung23

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There’s also been stories published that right wing media is the only source keeping this story going. It’s because they know people like you will keep clicking.
I think the “right wing media” wants to pound the fact that the morons who completely melted down over this with some dishonest rhetoric need to be held to social account.
 

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I think the “right wing media” wants to pound the fact that the morons who completely melted down over this with some dishonest rhetoric need to be held to social account.
That’s the thing though. Nobody really melted down. Nobody cares.
 

dtrain79

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I think there are a few reasons to list why others in here are not completely aligned with your thinking:

1 I can post a long specific answer from AI as to the grocery list of government inaccuracies in all statistical areas including crime that cause any honest thinker to pause on any government data.

2 Police leaders can and have altered numbers to make themselves look better.

3 Big city prosecutors not prosecuting crime, lowers crime statistics.

4 Lack of police numbers in liberal cities to investigate crime that has happened.

5 Police stop arresting criminals knowing they will just be let off for the crime.

6 Police not wanting to get involved for fear of lawsuits or other retaliation against them.

7 Asher is taking his stats from where to analyze for you? Is he the anti-Trumper that works with Mother Jones?

1. I assume you are talking about the federal government here. I’d generally dispute the take (federal data is imperfect but mostly reliable), but the data at issue here is literally from tens of thousands of different law enforcement orgs, including your own most likely. Some are places you love, some you hate. But it’s dispersed data so you can’t centrally manipulate it.

2. True. But again, this would make a big dent in national stats compiled by so many different LE orgs.

3. This has zero impact on reported crimes. It’s a canard and a terrible argument for what’s under discussion. We aren’t talking about prosecutions or even arrests.

4. See #3. Lack of police is also more likely to increase crime (and thus reported crimes). Think through these points.

5. See #3. This is crime reported by individuals. Not arrests. Interestingly, the more crime, the less likely an individual criminal is to get arrested.

6. Yet again, #3. My gosh do you not realize the topic is crimes reported to police? Doesn’t matter if it’s Barney Fife investigating, it’s still reported.

Btw, this is what led to crime spikes in 2020-22 most likely. Not really happening now, which has driven crime down.

7. Asher compiles them himself from a huge swath of local law enforcement agencies. I believe his data includes all the major cities (like 100K plus) that report, and over 50% of LE orgs. The data is set against the past data from the same places to compare. Crime has been dropping since 2023 btw. It rose a lot from 2020-22.

He has nothing to do with Mother Jones except their crime reporter likes to cite him. As does Charles Fain Lehman, who writes on the topic for the extremely conservative Manhattan Institute.

You previously attacked me for focusing on murder. Which I do because people cant even claim data manipulation on a claim that is literally reported every time. Murders in 2025 will be lowest in recorded US history. Down staggering amounts across big cities from last year which was low: 40% down in Dallas, 30% in Chicago, 18% in Philly, 24% in NYC, 11% in LA, and 30% in New Orleans (would be nearly 50% if not for the January 1 terrorist attack).

Trump is going to claim total victory in 10 months when these stats get released. He’s gonna do the same on drug OD deaths also dropping like a rock.

Why do so many of you not like facts? They aren’t good or bad, they are merely informative.
 

dtrain79

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To families trying to keep their children safe in the Anacostia, Shaw, and Columbia Heights areas of Washington, DC, the "crime is down" mantra is tragically comical.

It sounds great to people living in gated neighborhoods in Bethesda, MD or Great Falls, VA.

I wonder what the response would be in the rich suburbs if homicide and drug overdose were the leading causes of death among its citizens ages 15-34. How would the media report on it? What would the response be from the government?

Violence is not an inevitable part of urban life in America. It's unacceptable.

I live in a major city with no gates anywhere near. I grew up in a town with a significant urban black population (and went to school with these kids and still know many) that had serious crime issues when I was in school (issues that are far smaller today btw).

Most jurisdictions have improved public safety a lot over the course of my lifetime. Grandstanding about rich whites or whatever doesn’t change that.

Moreso, you seem to be attributing external causes to crime in these neighborhoods. While I’d agree that causes are both complex and improveable, they are mostly not external to behaviors in places with high crime.

There are many places in America - almost all which are heavily black - that are much safer today than they were in 1995. Not sure why stating that bothers you.

I will add this. If Trump can improve safety in DC by directing more federal resources to law enforcement there, great. The Guard stuff here seems silly (this isn’t rioting or public disorder). My comments on crime have nothing to do with Trump beyond the claim that crime was rising in 2024 is dead wrong, tho people were clearly upset about the decline in safety and order from 2020-22 and so the issue was helpful to Trump.
 
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bucshon

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I live in a major city with no gates anywhere near. I grew up in a town with a significant urban black population (and went to school with these kids and still know many) that had serious crime issues when I was in school (issues that are far smaller today btw).

Most jurisdictions have improved public safety a lot over the course of my lifetime. Grandstanding about rich whites or whatever doesn’t change that.

Moreso, you seem to be attributing external causes to crime in these neighborhoods. While I’d agree that causes are both complex and improveable, they are mostly not external to behaviors in places with high crime.

There are many places in America - almost all which are heavily black - that are much safer today than they were in 1995. Not sure why stating that bothers you.

I will add this. If Trump can improve safety in DC by directing more federal resources to law enforcement there, great. The Guard stuff here seems silly (this isn’t rioting or public disorder). My comments on crime have nothing to do with Trump beyond the claim that crime was rising in 2024 is dead wrong, tho people were clearly upset about the decline in safety and order from 2020-22 and so the issue was helpful to Trump.

You have entirely missed my point.

I couldn’t care less about the politics of it.
 

dtrain79

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You have entirely missed my point.

I couldn’t care less about the politics of it.

Despite your post bringing up alternate political scenarios of serious crime problems in white neighborhoods, fixing urban crime in its entirety requires structural and behavioral changes from large segments of the population in the neighborhoods hit hardest.

No different than fixing rural drug OD problems in West Virginia.

I’m all ears to how we do that, especially in a society that highly values individual liberty and has been wildly unsuccessful dictating outcomes.
 

Uncoach

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There’s also been stories published that right wing media is the only source keeping this story going. It’s because they know people like you will keep clicking.
Silly as usual, which is why I don’t engage with you regularly. The point of this is the polling data. The loudmouths are on social media. The polling data shows the vast majority of US don’t care/aren’t offended by a white girl in blue jeans. It’s the reason why AEO doubled down on the ad campaign and didn’t apologize to snowflakes and identity politics. Dunkin Donuts slipped in an ad right after AEO with a young, handsome white male at poolside and no one batted an eye. The very second corporations go back to growing a spine instead of being led by woke morons who are more concerned with identity politics, the nation begins to go back to the Melting Pot. Tossed Salad has at bare minimum created division in the US that didn’t exist prior to the push of identity politics by the Dems.

edited out DD. meant AEO
 
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Silly as usual, which is why I don’t engage with you regularly. The point of this is the polling data. The loudmouths are on social media. The polling data shows the vast majority of US don’t care/aren’t offended by a white girl in blue jeans. It’s the reason why AEO doubled down on the ad campaign and didn’t apologize to snowflakes and identity politics. Dunkin Donuts slipped in an ad right after AEO with a young, handsome white male at poolside and no one batted an eye. The very second corporations go back to growing a spine instead of being led by woke morons who are more concerned with identity politics, the nation begins to go back to the Melting Pot. Tossed Salad has at bare minimum created division in the US that didn’t exist prior to the push of identity politics by the Dems.

edited out DD. meant AEO
I thought I was on ignore?

My point remains. You posted dozens of times about Sydney Sweeney the last few weeks. All from right wing influencers using the manufactured controversy as engagement bait.

Nobody really cared about the ad. Great advertising by AE though.
 

rillaman

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Despite your post bringing up alternate political scenarios of serious crime problems in white neighborhoods, fixing urban crime in its entirety requires structural and behavioral changes from large segments of the population in the neighborhoods hit hardest.

No different than fixing rural drug OD problems in West Virginia.

I’m all ears to how we do that, especially in a society that highly values individual liberty and has been wildly unsuccessful dictating outcomes.

I don’t think this will ever happen. Unfortunately, no one is honest with the toughest hit communities. For the past decade, the media and left has told minorities that white supremacists are the greatest threat in our country. That is far from the truth. The greatest threat is someone that looks like you, in your neighborhood. The greatest threat is young boys and men, especially those affiliated with gangs.

That is just one step out of many that are needed. But we can’t even get through step 1.
 
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rillaman

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1. I assume you are talking about the federal government here. I’d generally dispute the take (federal data is imperfect but mostly reliable), but the data at issue here is literally from tens of thousands of different law enforcement orgs, including your own most likely. Some are places you love, some you hate. But it’s dispersed data so you can’t centrally manipulate it.

2. True. But again, this would make a big dent in national stats compiled by so many different LE orgs.

3. This has zero impact on reported crimes. It’s a canard and a terrible argument for what’s under discussion. We aren’t talking about prosecutions or even arrests.

4. See #3. Lack of police is also more likely to increase crime (and thus reported crimes). Think through these points.

5. See #3. This is crime reported by individuals. Not arrests. Interestingly, the more crime, the less likely an individual criminal is to get arrested.

6. Yet again, #3. My gosh do you not realize the topic is crimes reported to police? Doesn’t matter if it’s Barney Fife investigating, it’s still reported.

Btw, this is what led to crime spikes in 2020-22 most likely. Not really happening now, which has driven crime down.

7. Asher compiles them himself from a huge swath of local law enforcement agencies. I believe his data includes all the major cities (like 100K plus) that report, and over 50% of LE orgs. The data is set against the past data from the same places to compare. Crime has been dropping since 2023 btw. It rose a lot from 2020-22.

He has nothing to do with Mother Jones except their crime reporter likes to cite him. As does Charles Fain Lehman, who writes on the topic for the extremely conservative Manhattan Institute.

You previously attacked me for focusing on murder. Which I do because people cant even claim data manipulation on a claim that is literally reported every time. Murders in 2025 will be lowest in recorded US history. Down staggering amounts across big cities from last year which was low: 40% down in Dallas, 30% in Chicago, 18% in Philly, 24% in NYC, 11% in LA, and 30% in New Orleans (would be nearly 50% if not for the January 1 terrorist attack).

Trump is going to claim total victory in 10 months when these stats get released. He’s gonna do the same on drug OD deaths also dropping like a rock.

Why do so many of you not like facts? They aren’t good or bad, they are merely informative.

I don’t think you should dismiss #5 so easily. I agree with you that murder is the key stat that everyone should follow, but people rightfully notice a general lawlessness taking over some big cities.

The police do not go after people for minor crimes anymore, and citizens have learned to not waste their time reporting these minor crimes. I’ll give you a quick example. Smoking marijuana in public is illegal in Denver. Do the police ever arrest people for it? No. Do people bother reporting it? No. So the stats say it’s not a problem. Anyone that lives or visits here, knows it is.

Go across the Kansas border and smoke marijuana in a small town…you’re going to get reported and likely arrested. This is just one example of why outside of murder (as you have said, you can’t just ignore dead bodies), crime is enforced in different ways all over the country.

When people have trouble believing that crime is down, it’s because they see general lawlessness in ways they didn’t in the past. Public marijuana use and street racing are two examples I have. See it every day and night, and no one gets busted for it.
 

rillaman

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This past Sunday, my family and I witnessed the lawlessness and lack of enforcement first hand. My wife and I took the kids to Monster Jam, at 2:30 on Sunday. Middle of the day, in a busy part of town. We parked a few blocks from the stadium. We were about a block away from the stadium when my daughter said "Daddy, what's that smell?" I told her there must be a skunk nearby. Then we saw a homeless person smoking something (probably crack or meth) and my daughter said "Daddy, that guy is smoking, that's the smell." I didn't have the heart to tell her it wasn't him, it was the group of teenagers passing around a joint right outside the stadium. There were a few police officers right outside the stadium, a couple hundred feet from the kids smoking weed, and the homeless person smoking something worse. Plenty of crime being committed right in front of us, and nothing done about it. That's what is happening in many major cities. Theft is another one that people have rightly gotten tired of reporting, because nothing is done about it.
 
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rillaman

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Silly as usual, which is why I don’t engage with you regularly. The point of this is the polling data. The loudmouths are on social media. The polling data shows the vast majority of US don’t care/aren’t offended by a white girl in blue jeans. It’s the reason why AEO doubled down on the ad campaign and didn’t apologize to snowflakes and identity politics. Dunkin Donuts slipped in an ad right after AEO with a young, handsome white male at poolside and no one batted an eye. The very second corporations go back to growing a spine instead of being led by woke morons who are more concerned with identity politics, the nation begins to go back to the Melting Pot. Tossed Salad has at bare minimum created division in the US that didn’t exist prior to the push of identity politics by the Dems.

edited out DD. meant AEO

You have posted about Sydney Sweeney the way I posted about Epstein. Good to know what bothers both of us.
 

Uncoach

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I thought I was on ignore?

My point remains. You posted dozens of times about Sydney Sweeney the last few weeks. All from right wing influencers using the manufactured controversy as engagement bait.

Nobody really cared about the ad. Great advertising by AE though.
You are on ignore. Occasionally I look when someone responds to a person I have on ignore. Your response wasn’t bright at all. I posted dozens of times about Sweeney? Should we go back to you stalking TJ about how you would beat a 57 year old man in a cross country race? How many times did you post about that, stalker?
 

dtrain79

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I don’t think this will ever happen. Unfortunately, no one is honest with the toughest hit communities. For the past decade, the media and left has told minorities that white supremacists are the greatest threat in our country. That is far from the truth. The greatest threat is someone that looks like you, in your neighborhood. The greatest threat is young boys and men, especially those affiliated with gangs.

That is just one step out of many that are needed. But we can’t even get through step 1.

No comment on why we haven't seen the improvement among certain antisocial behaviors, I think it's structural and complex.

But Doug's speech IMHO ignores the why of crime (and how behaviors among those most likely to be impacted often drive it).

Also ... we've seen a slow and steady improvement among the low income black population. Things are better than they were in 1980 and 2000. IMHO, combined with some better policing techniques, this is why crime is down. It's mostly a victory.
 

Uncoach

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I don’t think this will ever happen. Unfortunately, no one is honest with the toughest hit communities. For the past decade, the media and left has told minorities that white supremacists are the greatest threat in our country. That is far from the truth. The greatest threat is someone that looks like you, in your neighborhood. The greatest threat is young boys and men, especially those affiliated with gangs.

That is just one step out of many that are needed. But we can’t even get through step 1.
Here is the plan. You can’t stop every crime, but the defund the police, letting criminals go, cashless bail, etc have eroded cities even more. Here is how you fix it…this is a general plan, not a detailed one.

More police, not less. “Encourage” the clothing manufacturers (hint:shoe companies) to set up shop in blighted areas. Readily available cheap labor is right there. Police presence at WalMart and Walgreens. Police presence around the manufacturers, provide incentives for the manufacturers to have daycare available for their workers. These workers get off full welfare and only use WIC for aiding in food/drink purchases. Lift up the blighted communities that are preyed on by these very shoe companies. Now what you have set in motion is raising a standard of living where people can move with work experience or purchase a small home and actually be able to make it nice, which improves property value, which in turn supports better schools and the crime goes down and more service businesses move into the communities. Of course there is some
Socialism involved in the solution, but eventually it pays off and is no longer needed.
 

Uncoach

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This past Sunday, my family and I witnessed the lawlessness and lack of enforcement first hand. My wife and I took the kids to Monster Jam, at 2:30 on Sunday. Middle of the day, in a busy part of town. We parked a few blocks from the stadium. We were about a block away from the stadium when my daughter said "Daddy, what's that smell?" I told her there must be a skunk nearby. Then we saw a homeless person smoking something (probably crack or meth) and my daughter said "Daddy, that guy is smoking, that's the smell." I didn't have the heart to tell her it wasn't him, it was the group of teenagers passing around a joint right outside the stadium. There were a few police officers right outside the stadium, a couple hundred feet from the kids smoking weed, and the homeless person smoking something worse. Plenty of crime being committed right in front of us, and nothing done about it. That's what is happening in many major cities. Theft is another one that people have rightly gotten tired of reporting, because nothing is done about it.
Went down to the waterfront to watch a band
Saturday night. No fresh air. Smelled like pot all over the place. Thanks, Illinois!
 

Uncoach

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You have posted about Sydney Sweeney the way I posted about Epstein. Good to know what bothers both of us.
I actually post about getting rid of identity politics with regularity. Sweeney is one of many examples. You, like your running stalker associate, missed the point of posting the poll entirely. It had nothing to do with Sweeney and everything to do with a company that didn’t cave to the identity politics crowd. You’re the same guy who pissed and moaned about all the DEI meetings at your former company. You sat out this current culture war by not voting for a legit candidate in 2024. I can safely say that Trump didn’t win in 2024, because people wanted to see the Epstein files. It’s a side show. Did you know Trump DOJ busted another human trafficking ring in Omaha NE yesterday? I did vote for that.
 

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You are on ignore. Occasionally I look when someone responds to a person I have on ignore. Your response wasn’t bright at all. I posted dozens of times about Sweeney? Should we go back to you stalking TJ about how you would beat a 57 year old man in a cross country race? How many times did you post about that, stalker?
I’ll post about it until he keeps his mouth shut about me or admits he’s all talk. Not sure how you see them or how they could bother you at all considering I’m on ignore and I created a separate thread?

My point still remains. You love sharing engagement bait.
 

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I actually post about getting rid of identity politics with regularity. Sweeney is one of many examples. You, like your running stalker associate, missed the point of posting the poll entirely. It had nothing to do with Sweeney and everything to do with a company that didn’t cave to the identity politics crowd. You’re the same guy who pissed and moaned about all the DEI meetings at your former company. You sat out this current culture war by not voting for a legit candidate in 2024. I can safely say that Trump didn’t win in 2024, because people wanted to see the Epstein files. It’s a side show. Did you know Trump DOJ busted another human trafficking ring in Omaha NE yesterday? I did vote for that.
There was no “identity politics crowd.” Your own poll proves that. Nobody cares about American Eagle jeans ads except a tiny percentage of extreme left morons, and those addicted to engagement bait like you.
 

dtrain79

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I don’t think you should dismiss #5 so easily. I agree with you that murder is the key stat that everyone should follow, but people rightfully notice a general lawlessness taking over some big cities.

The police do not go after people for minor crimes anymore, and citizens have learned to not waste their time reporting these minor crimes. I’ll give you a quick example. Smoking marijuana in public is illegal in Denver. Do the police ever arrest people for it? No. Do people bother reporting it? No. So the stats say it’s not a problem. Anyone that lives or visits here, knows it is.

Go across the Kansas border and smoke marijuana in a small town…you’re going to get reported and likely arrested. This is just one example of why outside of murder (as you have said, you can’t just ignore dead bodies), crime is enforced in different ways all over the country.

When people have trouble believing that crime is down, it’s because they see general lawlessness in ways they didn’t in the past. Public marijuana use and street racing are two examples I have. See it every day and night, and no one gets busted for it.

#5 isn't relevant to reported crime (and no one goes to the cops to report someone using drugs, it's a "victimless" crime).

But again, we go around and around on this. The stuff I say about crime isn't really a meaningful commentary on drug usage, which may be way up when crime against victims is down. You are speaking on the question of PUBLIC ORDER. People doing drugs on the street is more of an ORDER issue than a crime issue.

You've expressed many valid concerns about the lack of order in Denver. Again, Dallas has more crime than Denver (at least violent crime), but it clearly does not have the public order issues. I rarely see disorder here beyond occasional homeless people.
 
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