I agree with you pat, and if you look at Tech's season, it's not like they have a ton of impressive wins. The win over Texas was big, and the rout of Okie State was impressive. Outside of that, they've looked very average in some other games (Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma).
I think a lot depends on which TTU team shows up. Are they going to be a TTU team that shows up with a chip on their shoulder about being snubbed for a BCS shot, or will they show up disappointed in their bowl and play unfocused.
I agree with pat though that the only defensive fronts they've faced that compare to ours are Texas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma lived in TTU's backfield and disrupted their offense all game. If our front 4 can do that, as I think they can, then TTU won't light up the scoreboard as much as people think. I don't think they get to 40, and conversely, I think our offense can score on them, so I think it'll be a close game in the high 20s to somewhere in the 30s.