Does Orange really pay $18M?
- Thread starter onewoof
- Start date
Ahhh the joys of attempted cherrypicking.
http://forums.sixpackspeak.com/show...ne-the-math-on-how-much-additional-revenue-we
There's plenty more where that came from -- from AFTER we began to get the actual distribution models.
How much do you think it is worth when both the Orange and Sugar are off the playoff rotation? At the time I wrote the expectation statement -- I expected the Sugar to payout to the SEC every year and Orange more often than not. That was all the info we actually had on the structure at the time. We also didn't know that the playoffs were going to be a step-up clause that AVERAGED $500mil/yr, but started at $400mil/yr. So, $500mil was the logical, assumed starting point. The first link(from 2 years ago today before we had any real info on the structure) assumed it would be setup like the basketball tournament -- where money made is directly proportional to your total number of games played(total contribution).
It didn't assume that we'd get screwed to "only get $4mil or 6mil participation bonus" out of the games. It assumed we'd get 35-40% of the revenue produced by every game we played in. And make no mistake -- the SEC got screwed on this. Our teams' percentage contributions to the New Years 6 is going to be far greater than their percentage rewards as a conference.
is my recent quote. Add 20% to get to the average distribution(the $500mil number that we had at the time) = $62 mil CFP money to SEC. Add our half of the Sugar Bowl Stake = $40 mil. That's an extra $52mil on top of the number we had this year = $161mil = $146.3mil profit = about $10mil/school.
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About $20mil when it's a playoff game and we have a team there
About $10mil when it's not a playoff game and we have a team there
About $10mil when it's a playoff game and we don't have a team there
About $6mil when it's not a playoff game and we don't have a team there
Rough estimate, assuming the Peach is worth $50 mil in non playoff years and $100 mil in playoff years, and the SEC gets 1/5 of 75% of that revenue...
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its a great deal for everyone especially the sec and big 10. Each conf will take home a out $50 mill each yr. and then pac big 10 sec and big 12 get 40 mill when their contracts arent playoffs. Acc gets 27.5
Then the big 10 and sec each get another 75 mill over a period with the opportunity to make another 55 mill thru the extra orange bowl contrAct
Why wouldnt the conf sign up for this?
Then the big 10 and sec each get another 75 mill over a period with the opportunity to make another 55 mill thru the extra orange bowl contrAct
Why wouldnt the conf sign up for this?
Congrats, you were wrong in April, too.
Now, how long until State passes the $100 million mark for our athletic budget? I'm going to need an updated answer.
You get partial credit for dropping down to $5 million later in the thread (that's a heck of a percentage variance there), but if I was smart enough to think about averages with the Orange Bowl\Sugar Bowl contracts, you can be, too. We need you to step up your game.
Now, how long until State passes the $100 million mark for our athletic budget? I'm going to need an updated answer.
I'm not saying we shouldn't have signed up for it. I'm not hugely against the structure -- because it's clear now that they were never going to agree to one that was fully "fair" to the SEC. We gave a little in the payment methodology and got a little by them uncapping the number of teams that can appear...
We're still not going to get our percent input of total value. $455 total New Years 6 payout this year. 75% of $400 + $55 for Orange Bowl = $355mil. The SEC will provide 3 of 12 and most likely 4 of 14 total team appearances. 4/14 = 28.5% contribution. 28.5% of $355 = $101.18mil contribution to the New Years 6. We're getting about $87.5mil total back from those games. So, even after paying the League of 5 Conferences a fair amount, we are still "giving" the other 4 P5 conferences about $14mil of money you can argue should be the SEC's, assuming that Bama advances to the title game. If Bama doesn't advance, it's the weakest year I can imagine as far as power bowl representation -- and we still contribute a couple million to the less-represented P5 conferences...
This was a down year for the SEC as far as representation in those games. IMO, we'll be represented by 4 teams in those bowl games more often than not, and 5 on occasion. In those years, we're going to be contributing a huge amount of money to other power 5 conferences for games that we're playing in that they aren't. Fact is -- if we hadn't jumped Michigan St for the Orange and instead ended up in Dallas like we thought we would -- the SEC would be getting $64.5mil back for $101.18mil contribution. That's how it's going to be in many years IMO...
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EXPECTING $5mil in year 1 with it being "very possible the structure itself will bring us as high as $10mil"(a statement never meant to be applied to year 1) is "a heck of a percentage variance"? Seems to me it's damn accurate prognostication on both accounts with an overly obsessed fanboy trying to poke holes in it...
Where have I ever commented on our budget? We're famously frugal. And now we've got debt. My comments have always been on REVENUE. TWO years to cross $100mil in REVENUE(not budget) -- and we just might this year. Exactly like I've said all along.
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I don't think so. Giving Arizona a major bowl and sending K-State to the Alamo Bowl tells me the committee is going to use 10 of the 12 slots to give each of the major conferences 2 teams, plus the 11th slot for the highest ranked mid-major champion. So I think 3 is going to be the max for the SEC in most years.
I agree that the trivial #11 slot is going to pass over an SEC team far more often than not. But the final top 10 are locked in to the NY6 bowls. The committee would take a huge hit pushing teams out of the rankings just to prevent them from playing in these bowl games. Any overt action like that is somewhat kept in check by both the polls and pseudo BCS standings still out there. IF we assume SEC dominance stays on the level it has been in the past, which I see no reason to doubt that the gap is going to continually get wider in recruiting, we will have more than 3 of the final top 10 more often than not IMO
The pre-bowl top 10:
2013 - 4 AP, 4 BCS
2012 - 5 AP, 6 BCS
2011 - 4 AP, 4 BCS
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ETA: Screwed up Orange money payout as well as methodology of dividing the money. I'll edit initial post since I got the math all wrong -- but the premise stays the same...
$400mil is the total New Years 6 expected payout this year. $55 mil from the Orange considered separate from that. So, the "total" elite bowl payout is $455 million this year. About 25% of the payout goes to the League of 5 Conferences(I should have taken 75% of $400mil and left the $55mil Orange money separate -- so that was a pretty large math error on my part -- LO5 doesn't get 25% of the Orange cut).
Even if you flip flop Orange and Sugar, we still contribute far more to the pot than we are actually getting back...which has always been the case.
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That's a nice little attempt to jink there. Your 2012 statement listed the $10 million bowl money claim with "probably" as well.
And if you want to go with revenue instead of budget, that's fine. We had only 8.6% more revenue than budget just 2 years ago, so I think the odds are still in my favor on that discussion.
So at least you're on record (again?) for over $100 million in revenue for the 2015-2016 budget year..
And if you want to go with revenue instead of budget, that's fine. We had only 8.6% more revenue than budget just 2 years ago, so I think the odds are still in my favor on that discussion.
So at least you're on record (again?) for over $100 million in revenue for the 2015-2016 budget year..
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Where did either reference "day 1" for the $10 extra million? That's right -- they didn't. I claimed an extra $5mil on day 1. Which we're going to get. And then some. And the number will be closer to $10mil than $5mil over the life of the contract as the guaranteed money goes up 4% per year.
Correct.
We brought in about $69mil in 2012 before a mild drop off to $62mil last year without a Seal Complex to fundraise for. We would be north of $70mil this year prior to figuring the extra bowl revenue, extra stadium revenue, extra adidas revenue, and extra TV revenue. Nevermind the earmarked funds for the new baseball stadium and what will almost assuredly be a(new) record in private donations to the athletics dept. We'll be somewhere between $90-100mil this year depending on startup cost deduction on the SECNetwork. Once those startup costs are paid there -- it's game on.
Nevermind that the SECNetwork+ is a separate cost. Or that the network is an escalator contract that will go up somewhere around 8% per year automatically. The guaranteed quantity of bowl revenue will go up yearly too.
What's your obsessive disconnect on this? Punch your own calculator. It's easy. How about forming your own opinion rather than obsessing over mine six months or a year after the fact in a thread that had little to do with it? Or is that too much to ask?
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Oh, an even better dodge. I like that one!
Meanwhile, I have my own opinion, and already put the calculations out there: I expected the average payout of bowl money to each SEC institution from the conference pool to be around $2 million higher than last year.
I'm also on record as saying we'll top out under $85 million in revenue for 2015-2016. That prediction was made prior to the new baseball stadium announcement.
You're now on record as expecting more than $90 million in 2014-2015, and over $100 million in 2015-2016. I'm a little iffy on whether the last time you predicted $100 million the baseball stadium had been announced, but I'll let it slide.
Meanwhile, I have my own opinion, and already put the calculations out there: I expected the average payout of bowl money to each SEC institution from the conference pool to be around $2 million higher than last year.
I'm also on record as saying we'll top out under $85 million in revenue for 2015-2016. That prediction was made prior to the new baseball stadium announcement.
You're now on record as expecting more than $90 million in 2014-2015, and over $100 million in 2015-2016. I'm a little iffy on whether the last time you predicted $100 million the baseball stadium had been announced, but I'll let it slide.
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What exactly does the SEC office need their share for? Don't they also get a share of all the TV money too? So the SEC office gets what $40 mill a year. For what? What do they do with it? They ain't building new stadiums and ****. Just some suits clearing 10 mill a year for nothing?
Just because you say the word "dodge" doesn't make it so. I've never "dodged" my opinions.
Ah -- so this whole bookmarked and/or memorized "call-out" of numbers I put out there 2 years ago and obviously hurt your feelings on -- and I was actually still closer to correct than your prediction? You were off by 250%. Even using my $10mil top out figure -- I was still off by 200%. And my first year prediction, by your own admission, nailed it. I would have never cared to remember it -- but thanks for that admission.
That, my friend, is what is called self-incrimination. But I give you credit -- you are trying really hard.
My $100mil was made prior to the stadium announcement as well.
It hadn't -- but it's happening either way. I guess you can use the stadium build as your asterisk**
I appreciate your overt, constant concern for "the record". I'll actually bother to remember this discussion this time.
For all intents and purposes, it's all tv money we're dealing with here. Just coming from a separate pot. Yes, there's big money at hand in tickets, tourism, etc -- but the actual effect that has on MSU is incredibly minimal in comparison to the tv $$. As a nonprofit, it's a good question. I don't know where the conference will park all of their new $$ -- but the 990s will be publicly available in the future to view this...
Let's review, shall we?
I predicted $4.5 million ($2.5 million last year plus $2 million) with no range.
We're getting $6.3 million.
My number was under by $1.8 million.
You said:
Your misunderstanding the contract language for the Sugar Bowl put your bottom estimate at $8 million with a top of $12.5 million (note the word extra).
You missed over by a range of $1.7 million to $6.2 milion. Take out the $3.66 million you expected from the Sugar Bowl, and you range from $1.96 million under to $2.54 million over.
The real winner in this discussion is Brett McMurphy. If you include the Orange's contract, his numbers came in around $6 million in bowl revenue per SEC school.
Well, that takes your asterisk out. Care to speculate on what level private giving will push us to?