Of which, there are 8 without existing SEC ties. They are:
Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl
December 20, 2011 — St. Petersburg, FL, 8 p.m. ESPN
Payout: $1 million
Big East No. 5 vs. C-USA No. 2
Belk Bowl
December 27, 2011 — Charlotte, NC, 8 p.m. ESPN
Payout: $3.4 million
Big East No. 3 vs. ACC No. 4
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
December 28, 2011 — San Diego, CA, ESPN
Payout: $4.3 million
Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3
Champs Sports Bowl
December 29, 2011 — Orlando, FL, 5:30 p.m. ESPN
Payout: $4.65 million
ACC No. 3 vs. Big East No. 2
Valero Alamo Bowl
December 29, 2011 — San Antonio, TX, 9 p.m. ESPN
Payout: $6.35 million
Big 12 No. 2 or 3 vs. Pac-12 No. 2
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
December 30, 2011 — Bronx, NY, 3:20 p.m. ESPN
Payout: $3.6 million
Big East No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 6
Insight Bowl
December 30, 2011 — Tempe, AZ, 10 p.m.
Payout: $6.7 million
Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
December 31, 2011 — Houston, TX, 12 p.m. ESPN
Payout: $3.4 million
Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6
The ones with a higher big Big 12 team are probably out, eliminating the Alamo and Insight bowls, which would leave us with:
Beef O' Brady's
Belk
Holiday
Champs Sports
New Era Pinstripe
Car Care Bowl
Even with a depleted Big East, a No. 2 spot is going to be hard to give up in return for a 6-10 SEC team, so I think Champs Sports is out.
Of the rest, I think we see the following logic:
Beef O'Brady's - I think they would love to have a lower tier SEC team in place of a lower tier Big East. It's kind of a cool venue. It has a tiny capacity and littlepayout though. This one would basically be the SEC's for the taking if they wanted it.
Belk - No 3. is a high replacement and I'm not sure they'd be willing to fight for Music City scraps as another SEC vs ACC matchup. I'd consider this one highly unlikely, plus NC overall has no real interest in the SEC.
Holiday - The only thing that would be intriguing about this is that there is no current Pac-SEC tie-in, but San Diego is kinda SEC no man's land. Though it would be good to see "tacklin'" versus "running the opponent out of bounds" in a regular matchup, I'd say this is unlikely.
New Era Pinstripe - This one could actually be a possibility with both of the more vulnerable AQ conferences tied in. The only concern would be the draw to New York in the dead of winter of a middle-lower tier SEC school. I'd say 65/35 not a probability.
Car Care Bowl - This is probably a real possibility only because of A&M's membership. The Texas bowls in general want local and semi-local teams when possible. It would end up being a Music City bowl type where they would lean more towards A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, and in a down year LSU when Music City wanted a Tennessee, SC, Vandy, or Georgia. Still, though, it's hard to wrestle a Big 12 nod from a Texas Bowl.
Edited to add: The most likely scenario would be something like Beef O'Brady's where it didn't interfere with the existing contracts and team selections of other bowls. Adding another Liberty Bowl level tie-in for a barely eligible team would be the most likely scenario.
Of course, all of this goes out the window if the BCS votes to remove the 2 team restriction and/or add the Cotton.