Election Anomalies

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113


GEORGIA

Georgia was wild - they must have worried about Ossoff. Republican Senate Candidate got 210,000 less votes than the Republican Agriculture Commissioner and 190,00 less than Governor. In a total coincidence, Democrat Senator Ossoff got almost 200,000 votes more than the Democrat governor candidate.

However they did this (and I will be opining soon) it allowed them to fine tune which candidates got votes vacuumed away.
 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113


HOLY CR*P 🚨 How is this even possible??

All of California’s major candidate election results are the EXACT SAME percentages for Democrats and Republicans

Governor 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Lieutenant Governor 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Secretary of State 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Controller 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Treasurer 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Attorney General 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Supreme Court Justice: Joshua Groban 72% (D) vs 28% (R)
Supreme Court Justice: Kelli M. Evans 72% (D) vs 28% (R)

These don’t look like real election results, they look like a computer algorithm

Our elections are fake
 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113


THE 15% BAND

Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.

The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.

One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024

For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.

The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%

Variation explained: 88%

What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.

The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.

Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.

What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.

A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.

The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113


HOLY CR*P 🚨 How is this even possible??

All of California’s major candidate election results are the EXACT SAME percentages for Democrats and Republicans

Governor 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Lieutenant Governor 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Secretary of State 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Controller 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Treasurer 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Attorney General 64% (D) vs 35% (R)
Supreme Court Justice: Joshua Groban 72% (D) vs 28% (R)
Supreme Court Justice: Kelli M. Evans 72% (D) vs 28% (R)

These don’t look like real election results, they look like a computer algorithm

Our elections are fake

"Uniformity reflects state politics: California's strong Democratic lean leads to similar partisan splits in down-ballot races due to straight-ticket voting patterns, low Republican competitiveness statewide, and urban voter dominance rather than identical algorithms."

 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113


What I find problematic about this is the REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY.

America is very diverse. There is deep and wide partisan variation, even between states.

Virtually anything that was below Trump +15 in the 2024 election flipped.

That holds true not just for these Senate and Governor races, but mostly for the House races.

It's just a remarkable lack of variation for an election. Pretty crazy.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113


What I find problematic about this is the REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY.

America is very diverse. There is deep and wide partisan variation, even between states.

Virtually anything that was below Trump +15 in the 2024 election flipped.

That holds true not just for these Senate and Governor races, but mostly for the House races.

It's just a remarkable lack of variation for an election. Pretty crazy.

Give it up Gomer, all these influencers know their careers are shot unless they can keep you engaged with conspiracies about fraud. Stop helping them lie to you. Maga is dead.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113

How many times do I need to post this?

"Uniformity reflects state politics: California's strong Democratic lean leads to similar partisan splits in down-ballot races due to straight-ticket voting patterns, low Republican competitiveness statewide, and urban voter dominance rather than identical algorithms."

 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113

Oklahoma did not go blue but the electorate swung further to the left just like the ENTIRE country did. Get it through your thick skull that this was a referendum on Trump and had nothing to do with fraud. Americans are sick and tired of him and they marched to the polls with anger in their hearts. This was a message that you don't seem to be receiving. It would be much healthier for you to listen, accept it and move on. These results will not change.

 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113
We will see what actually happened. Republicans voted at the same levels as the last midterms.
Also, Democrats got ~70M in a record-turnout midterm. They got ~73M in 2024.
Republicans got ~76M in 2024 and ~55M now. The ‘missing’ votes are on YOUR side of the chart, Gomer. Maybe ask them why they stayed home.
 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113
Also, Democrats got ~70M in a record-turnout midterm. They got ~73M in 2024.
Republicans got ~76M in 2024 and ~55M now. The ‘missing’ votes are on YOUR side of the chart, Gomer. Maybe ask them why they stayed home.
Very sloppy and incorrect comparison dpic. Republicans turned out slightly greater than they did in 22 which was the last midterm. Democrats have never turned out anywhere near this on a midterm. You need to take your shoes off if you want to try advanced cyphering.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113
Very sloppy and incorrect comparison dpic. Republicans turned out slightly greater than they did in 22 which was the last midterm. Democrats have never turned out anywhere near this on a midterm. You need to take your shoes off if you want to try advanced cyphering.
I just compared it to 2024. Where did those 21 million Pubs go?
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113
Are you not aware that midterms never turn out near presidential year levels??? Until the dems magically did it this year.
Democrats were down 3 million from 2024
Repubs were down 21 million from 2024

So you're right, they stayed home is the obvious correct answer
 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113
@hopefultiger13

Since you are sort of in this business plz comment on this tech post.



Speaking as a computer scientist...

Note also that the numbers you referenced aren't all just 64-35, they're all 64.6 + or - 0.2, and 35.4 + or - 0.2. That's even more unlikely.

This is what happens when you don't pay attention in math class. Likely some corrupt programmer put in a random factor that he thought would alter the numbers, without making it look like it altered the numbers. Like (brain-dead example) "If this ballot was for the opponent, and the random number generator is greater than 0.6, then change it.". But he didn't bother to do the math, or he would have realized that if you use whatever that random element is, over enough cases, then the result converges on 64.6 and 35.4.

At least if I was going to vet the program that did this, then that's what I'd most expect to find. This is a typical undergrad mistake. Just because your algorithm has a randomizing element, that doesn't mean that the result isn't going to converge, over a large enough number of trials.

Also note that this kind of manipulation almost always leaves a footprint in the data. Statisticians who specialize in analyzing voting results know what properties honest results should have. Unless the corrupt programmer really knew what he was doing, they'll spot the strange results, and the nature of the strangeness will give them a strong clue as to what the programmer did.
 

fsu1jreed

Heisman
Apr 1, 2002
9,848
17,826
113
No they did. The difference is the dem turnout was the most ever for a midterm.

No, theys plenty of YouTube videos, some of which I posted here, of Republicans that were saying they were voting Dem because of Trump
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113
Turnout in the midterm elections reached its second-highest peak in more than a century — only slightly behind the 2018 midterms, during President Donald Trump’s first term — with the greatest number of voters casting ballots in states where Democrats won unexpected victories.

Across the United States, 49 percent of eligible Americans voted, the second-highest turnout since 1914, when neither women nor African Americans could vote in many states, according to preliminary data from the University of Florida Election Lab.

Three states with the highest turnout — Maine (65.7 percent), Minnesota (65.2 percent) and Michigan (63.2 percent) — held competitive Senate races where Democrats prevailed. All three also elected Democratic governors.

1794083806864.png
National turnout increased by three percentage points compared with 2022’s midterm elections. It was only slightly lower than in 2018, during the first Trump presidency, when 50 percent of eligible voters turned out.

Despite setting high marks for a midterm, turnout was lower than the 2024 presidential election by 15.2 percent. But the gap was smaller in the most competitive races, including in Maine, where Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson ousted Sen. Susan Collins (R), and Texas, where state Rep. James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, in the race for U.S. Senate.

Across all states with competitive Senate races, turnout averaged 52 percent, higher than the national average.

1794083856121.png
“When it comes to turnout, Trump has had more of an impact than anyone of the last century. He has the ability to mobilize both sides, for and against him,” Tom Bonier, an analyst and former Democratic political strategist, said of the president.

“What was different this time around [compared with 2018] was that he was repellent to Republicans as well, so that many just chose to stay home,” he said.


Turnout is often lower in wave elections because one side stays home.

Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster and politics professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said he expected Republicans would benefit from higher turnout because it would counter Democratic enthusiasm.

“In fact, it was exactly the opposite,” he said.


Lower-propensity voters showed up because they were “upset over the economy, perhaps a little anger over the Iran war and it’s relationship to higher gas prices.”

“Trump is an incredible mobilizer,” Shaw said. “But he also happens to be one of the great counter-mobilizers of all time.”

 
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Moogy

All-American
Jul 28, 2017
8,112
5,803
113
Look at the voter statistics. It's all over X. Mass fraud did occur imo but let's see if Trump does anything.
You're just a pathetic loser. You've been whining for 6 years about your a.ss-whoopin' in 2020, and now you're going to cry about this one, too. Act like a man.
 
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pjhawk

All-American
Oct 13, 2001
1,988
5,823
113
SaltyGoat KNOWS THINGS!

I believe him yo!
He should have noticed by now that the only people screaming fraud are Trump (and pretty weakly/wanly in this election cycle) and Russian twitter bot accounts.

None of the actual Republican office holders who got thrown out are alleging any fraud. I can't believe I'm handing it to Texas Republicans, but Abbott, Patrick, and even Paxton have been remarkably gracious in defeat.

@TigerGrowls is kind of amazing, poster who will believe literally anything he sees on the internet from any source if it confirms his priors. Reminds me of the late 90's early aughts jokes about if it's on the internets it has to be true.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113
He should have noticed by now that the only people screaming fraud are Trump (and pretty weakly/wanly in this election cycle) and Russian twitter bot accounts.

None of the actual Republican office holders who got thrown out are alleging any fraud. I can't believe I'm handing it to Texas Republicans, but Abbott, Patrick, and even Paxton have been remarkably gracious in defeat.

@TigerGrowls is kind of amazing, poster who will believe literally anything he sees on the internet from any source if it confirms his priors. Reminds me of the late 90's early aughts jokes about if it's on the internets it has to be true.
Yes, but none of them have the clout and instincts of SaltyGoat!

But seriously, these maga influencers are panicking that their golden goose is dying on the vine and they know that election conspiracies are the only thing that will keep the numpties coming back to the cesspool.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
37,166
34,888
113
Growls, THEY STAYED HOME compared to 2024. LISTEN



"Now that all the funded accounts are passing around "the chart," here's a more complete view that shows you what has happened.

Democrats got near 2024 turnout (mirroring special election and primary turnout). Republicans did not. And Independents, while down, swung massively against Republicans. And to top it off, Republicans defected more than normal.

Doesn't look like fraud now, does it?"




Here's an interesting clip that shows what the outcome would have looked like if only people in each demographic voted.

Independents and Under 30 swung hard left. YOU LOST.

 

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
50,388
39,319
113
Growls, THEY STAYED HOME compared to 2024. LISTEN



"Now that all the funded accounts are passing around "the chart," here's a more complete view that shows you what has happened.

Democrats got near 2024 turnout (mirroring special election and primary turnout). Republicans did not. And Independents, while down, swung massively against Republicans. And to top it off, Republicans defected more than normal.

Doesn't look like fraud now, does it?"




Here's an interesting clip that shows what the outcome would have looked like if only people in each demographic voted.

Independents and Under 30 swung hard left. YOU LOST.


This goes against known history. Voters of either party do not turn out for midterms at this level. Democrats never have before this year.
 
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