Not a mind reader but I would take this statement to imply that based on his shooting style the player does not tend to get a favorable bounce if the ball is even slightly off its mark. He either gets nothing but net or a sharp carom off the iron.
So your third option is an initial miss but the ball rolls or bounces around the rim and goes in. Jim probably could have said it better but then I can cut him some slack as he was in the midst of calling a BB game.