Essex downs Northumberland...

[uvacavs1]

Congrats to Essex Coach Fulks, his staff, and players on a convincing win over now 5-1 Northumberland. Riversportsfan called it as he predicted a 21 to 28 point win for Essex (it was a 27 point victory, 33-6)

About five Northumberland supporters said to me before the game, we might actually have a chance this year against Essex. So enthusiasm was high. Alas, it was not to be.

However, all is not lost for Northumberland. History can still be made (and is certainly within reason) if Northumberland wins out going 9-1. At least NHS has not had a 9 win season since the mid 90s, NNDman would know or any long time Indian fans.

It will not be easy though for NHS as CB (4-2) with Lucas is dangerous and W&L, Lancaster, or Rappahannock could be trap games with turnovers etc..

Essex knew they had to have this victory and they got it done. This game v Northumberland was a must win for the Trojans to restore some glory & respect to that proud program. Plus, they needed a win to be able to have a winning season, earn power points for playoff seeding, and to most likely win the NND as usual (as was predicted by many even with a 1-4 start).

Northumberland had 4 turnovers on the way to being down 33-0. Essex until late had 0 turnovers, more on the game in a bit.

 

[uvacavs1]

Essex at Northumberland was actually much closer than the final score appears. The Indians were in it and had a few chances to make it a battle.

The score was 0-0 at the end of the 1st. One of the Indians drives had ended with an incomplete pass into the end zone on a 4th down. Northumberland had a nice drive stalled by a mistimed throw that was intercepted by Essex. NHS survived that but later gave up a TD in the 2nd, 6-0 Essex.

NHS still remained confident and went toe to toe and was driving well again, when after a nice 1st down run the ball came out, recovered by Essex. That was the turning point of the game in my opinion.

Essex played smart game management on offense and defense, taking little risks and being opportunistic. The nail on the coffin was I think Essex's 1st pass of the game which came with about a min to go in the half, a 24 yard pass and untouched run TD on a 3rd and 17. NHS' top cover man was on the sidelines for that play. Essex had major momentum going in the half with the odds significantly in their favor.

For an underdog to win, you almost always have to score 1st to build confidence (the mental game) and build momentum and energy. Plus, winning the turnover battle, of course, helps a lot. NHS lost 4 to 1 late for Essex.

Heck, even among similar talented teams, the team that scores first wins about 65% of the time. I would argue that if an underdog falls behind early, that number goes up to 75 to 80% easy. If you go down the 1st two scores, that number goes to mid 90s.

Of course, there are always some exceptions.

 

[Essex Trojan1]

Essex at Northumberland was actually much closer than the final score appears. The Indians were in it and had a few chances to make it a battle.

The score was 0-0 at the end of the 1st. One of the Indians drives had ended with an incomplete pass into the end zone on a 4th down. Northumberland had a nice drive stalled by a mistimed throw that was intercepted by Essex. NHS survived that but later gave up a TD in the 2nd, 6-0 Essex.

NHS still remained confident and went toe to toe and was driving well again, when after a nice 1st down run the ball came out, recovered by Essex. That was the turning point of the game in my opinion.

Essex played smart game management on offense and defense, taking little risks and being opportunistic. The nail on the coffin was I think Essex's 1st pass of the game which came with about a min to go in the half, a 24 yard pass and untouched run TD on a 3rd and 17. NHS' top cover man was on the sidelines for that play. Essex had major momentum going in the half with the odds significantly in their favor.

For an underdog to win, you almost always have to score 1st to build confidence (the mental game) and build momentum and energy. Plus, winning the turnover battle, of course, helps a lot. NHS lost 4 to 1 late for Essex.

Heck, even among similar talented teams, the team that scores first wins about 65% of the time. I would argue that if an underdog falls behind early, that number goes up to 75 to 80% easy. If you go down the 1st two scores, that number goes to mid 90s.

Of course, there are always some exceptions.

Were we at the same game?! Northumberland had NOTHING for Essex. On Northumberland's 1st possession, Their QB was sacked twice by Essex Adarious Jones. Before he got hurt in the 2nd Q and was taken out for the rest of the game, had 2 sacks and just misssed out on 3 or 4 more. He and the rest of the Trojan D line and LBs were in the Indians backfield all night. If not for the the Indians QB being a scrambler to get away and some missed tackles, we would of gotten double digit sacks on him. Northumberland was in the game til about mid 2nd. They got some yards due to poor tackling (gotta work on that Trojans). That Pass you are talking about had a Trojan defender there to break it up. That 1st down run, an Essex DB nailed him good and he coughed it up. Northumberland has improved but STILL not on Essex level. Essex won by 27 last year with a better team and won this year by 27 with a team that's trying to find themselves against an improved Northumberland team. Plus Essex was missing I think 4 starters on D. Two were injured, one had to sit out til 2nd half and the big 450lbs. D lineman quit right before the Deep Run game. We lost another D lineman in the second Q for the night. We even lost our QB for a possession or 2 from rolling his ankle and we STILL scored. Just imagine if all those starters were in. The only Way Northumberland scored was because of a low fumbled snap by Essex deep in our red zone that they scooped up an ran it in from 2 yards out.. Essex still need to clean up some stuff. Maybe the 2 will meet again...who knows.

 

[uvacavs1]

I'm not quite sure what you are disagreeing with me about. I called Essex the favorite and NHS the underdog (almost everyone on Preps has been predicting Essex would win out the NND after a tough start because of schedule).

I said that the Indians went back and forth for much of the 1st 16 minutes or so. Yes I remember the sacks by EHS and I remember 1 or two by NHS early. I am pretty sure Essex had a couple punts after a 3 and out.

I was stating that for a major underdog like the Indians (I had heard some predict an Essex victory by 20 to 50 points) that they remained in it until the 2nd turnover and then it was relatively over by the late 1st TD that made it 13-0.

Had NHS gone into halftime down 6-0 or had been able to score on one of those good three drives they had, it may have been a different game. But it wasn't and Essex blew out the Indians in the 2nd half.

I could say NHS needed to do a better job tackling as well and were also missing two D starters.

Yes, Essex is on a different tier of football that is why I discussed the % of needing to score 1st to have a shot at staying in the game. Those are my observations and numbers but I'm fairly sure analytics would be quite similar.

For example, against Trinity Episcopal, NHS pulled the big upset. The Indians scored 1st, got fired up and stayed that way as a team, and won the turnover battle by 3. I would say Trinity probably has a better offense than Essex but Essex definitely has the better Defense.

 

[Essex Trojan1]

I was one that said Essex would run the table in district play and I said I was not buying into the Northumberland hype about them being ready to Challenge Essex. Even with Essex being slightly down. I respect your opinion. I just don't agree that the game was much closer than the score shows. For 1 1/2 quarters yes but the rest was all Essex. Northumberland moved the ball some but never got those WRs going that I've heard so much about. They got in some yards but as long as they don't score, the defense has done their job. Just my opinion.

 

[NND Sports Fan]

I have to go with EssexTrojan 1 on this one. No way was that game closer than the final score. If not for that bad center snap, Essex gets a shutout. Northumberland moved the ball well on a couple 1st half series, but I don't believe they got into the red zone. If not for some nice scrambles by the NHS QB in the 2nd half, the Indians would've had little to no yardage in the last 24 minutes. Like Trojan1 said, Essex went into this one shorthanded and then lost their best defensive player midway through the 2nd quarter and still won going away.

 

[uvacavs1]

I have to go with EssexTrojan 1 on this one. No way was that game closer than the final score. If not for that bad center snap, Essex gets a shutout. Northumberland moved the ball well on a couple 1st half series, but I don't believe they got into the red zone. If not for some nice scrambles by the NHS QB in the 2nd half, the Indians would've had little to no yardage in the last 24 minutes. Like Trojan1 said, Essex went into this one shorthanded and then lost their best defensive player midway through the 2nd quarter and still won going away.

I certainly respect both opinions and you make valid points indeed. You are absolutely right about the 2nd half. Essex dominated the 2nd indeed. Essex went into halftime with the late TD to make it 13-0. It realistically was over at that point, then Essex received ball 1st in 3rd q, and scored like a 65 yard TD. Game definitely over.

I was not clear in my words. I enjoy looking for the top turning points of a game. I find the psychological impacts on sports players based on game events and other factors to be quite interesting.

I stand by my comments about the 1st half. Imo, the 2nd turnover by the Indians on their third good drive was devastating for any hopes of an upset. Then when Essex scored on the pass TD at the end of the 2nd on a wide open 3rd and 17 it was undone. The 2nd half was basically a forgone conclusion according to the overwhelming odds. Many may disagree with that, but that's how it is (sometimes their are exceptions to the rule, of course).

 

[The Gridiron Guru]

I must agree with the Essex perspective here. Northumberland had only two sustained drives in the 1st half. As I recall the first ended on an INT on a 3rd and 20+ play around the Essex 35. The other ended on downs after successive incompletions around the Essex 30. When Essex scored on that 3rd and 17 they overcame two penalties including a hold that put them behind the chains.
Essex showed they are the team to beat in the NND and better not overlook Colonial Beach because from what I saw their tackling is horrendous. I've never seen so many attempted tackles around the shoulders. If they had tackled better Northumberland would have been in more trouble than they were.
And, where was the crowd for the biggest Nortumberland home game in 20+ years. I got there 20 minutes before kickoff thinking I would have to walk a country mile and there were all kinds of parking spaces in the two lots. SMH

 

[uvacavs1]

Good points. Yes, crowd was not as big as expected and hoped for. My only guess would be that 1) NHS has been down for so long and that continues to impact attendance. 2) Many people figured Essex would win (like 19-1 or so v NHS). As for Essex tackling I agree, to stop the skill players often all they did was grab, pull, and hold on until help arrived. This happened maybe 12 times or so. Jerseys were ripped I was told. Oh well, whatever works.

Yes, CB is dangerous with Lucas. Always tough and well coached.