I'm not saying we'll be favored to win any of them (we won't).
I'm not saying that any sane statistical method of predicting the winner of any of the games we have left will show us having a >50% probability of winning (no same method would).
I'm not going to pump sunshine and say that things are better than anything we've seen on the field this season (the luck coin flipped in our favor yesterday and we still have the same issues on our lines).
All three of our final opponents are top 25 teams with at most 2 losses with two top ten 1-loss teams at home and the 2-loss team away. But none of the three have exactly been handily demolishing teams recently. Georgia had trouble with Florida this weekend and had to snatch a win late. If Missouri gets as beat up by Texas A&M next weekend as we did, they might be down when we play them in two weeks. And the Egg Bowl is always competitive.
If I were to put some kind of expected value on the number of wins we have the rest of the way, saying 0.5 wins would be generous. But if this team puts enough of the good pieces of what they've done across all the games this season for a game or two, they can prove me wrong and beat that 0.5.
I'm not saying that any sane statistical method of predicting the winner of any of the games we have left will show us having a >50% probability of winning (no same method would).
I'm not going to pump sunshine and say that things are better than anything we've seen on the field this season (the luck coin flipped in our favor yesterday and we still have the same issues on our lines).
All three of our final opponents are top 25 teams with at most 2 losses with two top ten 1-loss teams at home and the 2-loss team away. But none of the three have exactly been handily demolishing teams recently. Georgia had trouble with Florida this weekend and had to snatch a win late. If Missouri gets as beat up by Texas A&M next weekend as we did, they might be down when we play them in two weeks. And the Egg Bowl is always competitive.
If I were to put some kind of expected value on the number of wins we have the rest of the way, saying 0.5 wins would be generous. But if this team puts enough of the good pieces of what they've done across all the games this season for a game or two, they can prove me wrong and beat that 0.5.
