Graveman tomorrow night per ESPNU...oh lordy..
- Thread starter skydawg1
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I think Graveman will pitch really well for us tomorrow. He only threw 76 pitches on Friday, and should be fine to go on 3 days rest. His sinkerball needs to be on tomorrow and force a lot of ground balls.
I like this matchup for Kendall. He has seemed to do really well against average or below average hitting teams (Arkansas, Florida, Texas A&M, etc.)
We don't just need a win tonight, we need at least 6 or 7 innings from Graveman. I think it's important to find a way to win without extending Ross for more than an inning or two.
We don't just need a win tonight, we need at least 6 or 7 innings from Graveman. I think it's important to find a way to win without extending Ross for more than an inning or two.
This^. Getting an early lead is the key.
And we can't worry about who can't be over extended...there is no tomorrow, so you throw Ross 100 pitches if you have to and Then we deal with Wednesday if we make it. We still have Bracewell, Pollo, Lindgren, Cox, Gentry, Holder, and Ross that haven't seen the mound in this series. Use whatever it takes to get to Wednesday and we will be fine
Last night was more on the hitters and defense than the pitchers. The pitchers for the most part did what they had to do to win. We need to settle down at the plate, work the counts, and stop trying to hit for the fences. We also have next to no room for error on defense.
Only think I can think of is pitching him on only 3 days rest. I'd prefer to hold him for tomorrow on 4 days rest since we're just going to be in the same shape tomorrow we would have been in today if we'd gone with Pollorena or Bracewell and Graveman would likely be more effective tomorrow than today. But he should be fine on 3 days rest and it's not a big difference either way.
We ain't winning it without winning 2 games. Only question is do we win with Graveman tonight and Pollo/Bracewell tomorrow or do we win with Pollo/Bracewell tonight and Graveman tomorrow. I understand your thinking and I'm fine with pitching Graveman tonight. But I do think the better chance to win 2 games is to pitch him on 4 days rest instead of 3. I think he'd be a little more effective on 4 days rest and also have a better chance to go 7, 8, or even 9 innings if needed.
If we pitch Graveman tonight and force a game 3, we will have the momentum, especially if we are putting up 6 or 7 runs in the process.
We have to win tonight, worry about tomorrow if there is a Game 3.
We have to win tonight, worry about tomorrow if there is a Game 3.
Only pitcher in recent memory that Ican think of who actually is better not on full rest. Kendall's best stuff comes when he's 87-89 instead 90-92. When he tries to throw instead of pitch is when he gets beat. I'm strangely optimistic about this game
Exactly. You have to pull out all of the stops to win tonight. Worry about game 3 when it comes. If you don't win game 2, then there is no game 3.
Trust me, I really do understand that line of thinking. But it doesn't matter if we win 0 games or 1 game. Either way, we're national runner-up, which is a fantastic season. It shouldn't matter to Pollo/Bracewell which day they pitch since they're both fully rested. But most pitchers will be more effective on 4 days rest than on 3 days rest. I don't think it matters as much for a guy like Graveman as it would for a guy like Wahl, but I do think even for him he would be a little more effective tomorrow. And if we lose tonight and don't use him tomorrow, we weren't going to win the series anyway. But I am OK with pitching him tonight, it's just not my first choice.
Pat has always argued this point. I would much rather worry about game 3 after we give out best shot of winning game 2.
This got a laugh out of me for the blunt simplicity of the answer. Sorry, pat, he's dead on.
You never know what can happen in baseball, which is why it is important to go all in, in an elimination game. Hell, Evan could trot out there and throw a no no in game 3.
Which is fine with me in this case. I don't think it makes much difference. But that line of thinking is really no different than Polk starting Maholm against Middle Tennesee Tech back in 2003. You've got to win game 1 to even get to the winner's bracket game after all. And that was just idiotic.
I like pitching Graveman tonight, it should benefit his sinker with 31/2 days between games. Everyone says he pitches better throwing in the upper 80's versus his low 90's.
I don't like the idea of Pollo starting only because he walks batters and seems to get behind in the count to much.
I don't like the idea of Pollo starting only because he walks batters and seems to get behind in the count to much.
I understand the issue of 'playing to win the series/regional/etc.' But you only do that when you have a game to spare. When Polk threw Maholm, it was idiotic because we didn't have one loss already. No matter what, you will throw your ace in an important game. That's the difference between then and now, we have a loss. There is no tomorrow.
No, patdog is right. Your point is incomplete. The obvious retort to your point is "It doesn't matter if you win Game 2 if you lose Game 3."
I know most people don't think this way, but trust me... this is a classic case of "gut" or "intuition" being wrong against the simple math.
I also know that as soon as the first pitch is thrown, all decision-making changes with new situations. But that doesn't change the fact that patdog's point is valid: All decisions from this point forward should be to maximize our chances of winning both games, not just Game 2.
No, the simple math says Game 3 doesn't exist if you don't win Game 2. End of story. In an ideal world sure let's trot Pollo out there tonight and see if he can get us to Graveman tomorrow for the win. But that's not how **** works. You put your best players out there in the do or die situations.
Now, I am concerned about who goes Wednesday assuming we get the job done tonight. They are all going to be scared shitless because No. 1, none of them have pitched for like a month, and No. 2, you know, it's the national championship 'n ****. This isn't the SEC Tournament Ch'ip, and there ain't no Brooks Dunns walking through that door. That atmosphere will eat our guys up. I guess you have to go Bracewell or Pollo because they are seniors, unfortunately UCLA has that lefty who is experienced, so it's really a moot point.
Now, I am concerned about who goes Wednesday assuming we get the job done tonight. They are all going to be scared shitless because No. 1, none of them have pitched for like a month, and No. 2, you know, it's the national championship 'n ****. This isn't the SEC Tournament Ch'ip, and there ain't no Brooks Dunns walking through that door. That atmosphere will eat our guys up. I guess you have to go Bracewell or Pollo because they are seniors, unfortunately UCLA has that lefty who is experienced, so it's really a moot point.
Exactly. To put it mathematically, say pitching Graveman tonight gives you a 60% chance of winning. But pitching him tomorrow on 4 days rest would give you a 65% chance of winning. Pitching Bracewell/Pollo gives you a 40% chance of winning either night. Then if you pitch Graveman tonight, you give yourself a 60% * 40% = 24% chance of winning the CWS. But if you hold him till tomorrow (knowing there's a 60% chance that tomorrow never comes), you give yourself a 40% * 65% = 26% chance of winning the CWS. So you should go with Pollo/Bracewell. It's not that significant, so I'm OK with pitching Graveman tonight.
I think that patdog has a completely valid point, and if emotion and momentum were not a factor, I would think it was even more valid. Also, if we had a more balanced group of starting pitchers it would come in to play more as well.
In order to win the overall Championship we have to win 2 games...1 with Graveman and 1 with Wholestaff....so technically it shouldn't matter which starts first if our ultimate goal is to win it all.
However, I'm a big believer that if we win game 2, it gives us all of the momentum and puts a ton of pressure on UCLA not to blow a 1-0 series lead and lose the series. So I put more weight on game 2 than Game 3 because game 3 will have more momentum and pressure factored in.
I agree that this is a valid point too. Just to emphasize again, I am OK with what Cohen is doing. At the end of the day, I don't think it matters all that much which order he pitches them in.
So let's say you have a well-rested staff. And in using your example of percentages, we have a guy like Chris Stratton that threw on Friday. You wouldn't pitch him today if you thought he was ready for a 5% greater chance to win tomorrow? I go with Stratton all day today.
"You're talking about what you're going to do, if he makes it out of there alive? Why don't you wake up and smell what you're shoveling."
Not if it's a guy like Stratton. But maybe if we had a rested Vander Tuig vs a Plutko on 3 days rest...since they are very similar when it comes to overall talent.
I think pat's point is being blown out of proportion really...he is basically just saying that we aren't just trying to win game 2, we also want to win the series. So if you know who your next two starters are going to be, you are going to HAVE to have both of them win to win the series...so order doesn't always matter if the matchups allow you to switch up while bettering your overall chances at the series.
Like I said though, the fact that a win by us tonight shifts all the pressure back on UCLA is more than enough reason to always start your best in this situation.
Nah - this is a point that Pat has always argued. I just take the best chance we have to win any elimination game. If our coaches think it's pitching Graveman with 4 days rest - then pitch Graveman.