MLB historical statistics say the disparity is much greater, that pitchers pitching on 3 days rest typically perform poorly. But you also have to weigh UCLA's #3 starter vs their #2 starter. If #3 is much worse than #2, then the odds swing back towards doing everything to win Game 2.
Graveman tomorrow night per ESPNU...oh lordy..
- Thread starter skydawg1
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If he has a 5% greater chance of winning tomorrow, the smart thing would be to give him his best chance to win. Not saying I'd have the guts to do it with a Stratton though. Cadaver is right, this is being blown out of proportion. It really doesn't matter much in this case which way we pitch it (and it wouldn't with Stratton either if we're only talking about a 5% better chance by holding him). What if holding Stratton till tomorrow would increase his chance of winning from 60% to 80% though? Would you still pitch him today knowing that you have to win both today and tomorrow to be national champions? I sure wouldn't.
Ross Mitchell is our Stratton. I'd consider starting Mitchell and letting him go the distance. Pitch Graveman and Bracewell tomorrow. Or you let Mitchell pitch 4-5 innings both days maybe. Either way Ross Mitchell has to get serious innings the next two days. Girodo is a stud but he's probably done for the series after throwing 120 pitches last night. Now it's time for Ross Mitchell. I said before the regionals started that we might just win the whole damn thing if Ross Mitchell threw almost every game. We are just two wins away from that being fact. Pitch the absolute 17 out of Mitchell these last two games. He throws 84. He can handle 200 pitches in two days.
Now this is something we all may agree on. I would not be opposed to starting someone else then going to Real Deal Mitchell quickly. I don't want to start him though, he's ALWAYS sucked from the starting role. Start Bracewell or Pollo then go Real Deal.
Then you have your Sr. starter going Wednesday for the title.
Then you have your Sr. starter going Wednesday for the title.
It's an elimination game. You do everything you can to win that game with a natty on the line. This isn't some weekend SEC series. You do whatever you have to do in order to give your team a chance to play the next day. If that means pitching 9 pitchers tonight, so be it. It's the last game of the season unless they win.
If you live to play another day, the team has more confidence and rides the wave of emotion and you see where the chips fall.
If you lose, you lose with no regrets or second guessing saying "we should've pitched so and so just so we'd have a shot game 3"
The % of winning game 3 doesn't matter if you don't win game 2.
If you live to play another day, the team has more confidence and rides the wave of emotion and you see where the chips fall.
If you lose, you lose with no regrets or second guessing saying "we should've pitched so and so just so we'd have a shot game 3"
The % of winning game 3 doesn't matter if you don't win game 2.