Guess the Michigan Line
- Thread starter Miggins
- Start date
Torvik has Rutgers -6. I think Mag and Caleb bring out at the same time is worth 3-4 points.. I’ll say RU -2.5 if Caleb is out.
Not sure of Michigan’s injury situation compared to the rest of season though
What a joke. Mag and Caleb out against Michigan is like about a 10 point swing in Michigan's favor. 3-4 points?! I mean, hey, I'm glad you like Oskar so much!! We need him to light it up!!!
I absolutely love your Rutgers enthusiasm but you must be the ultimate homer thinking Mag and Caleb out only costs us 3-4 points. Preach brotha!
It’s far less than 10, but with a little more thought I agree 3-4 is probably too little. Especially since the loss of the 2nd starter is worse (as we get further into the bench to replace them).
However the Bart line already includes a few games without Mag and a couple without Paul and Caleb early in the year.
I’ll revise to 5 points and say RU -1. Again this assumes Caleb is out, Michigan is healthy.
Also aren’t you the one who says the offense is better without Caleb? Make up your mind lol
Vegas isn’t shifting lines because a player that scores under 10 ppg is out. RU -4 sounds about right.
Vegas doesn’t usually move lines cause of injury unless it’s a star player. I’d be surprised if it moved by more than half a point. Think we were only 2.5 dogs at Miami even with Paul not playing.
Let me guess, you think having Mag and Caleb out results in only a 1 point swing in Michigan’s favor?
I hope you are right friend! I hope Palm goes lights out from 3 and drops 18!!Let me guess, you think having Mag and Caleb out results in only a 1 point swing in Michigan’s favor?
The combo of both would mean a couple of points…but not anything approaching 10 points like 2004 is saying.
So you blew up your own argument that Caleb is vital to Rutgers winning. Apparently it makes no difference. Smooth!
If Vegas won’t move line for having our two best defenders out, that just means that they aren’t paying enough attention. Which is certainly possible.
People have way overestimated the quantitative difference between players.. but Mag was almost certainly worth at least a point or two and Caleb is both better than Mag and now pushing us further into the bench.
Regardless of where the line actually opens, when you give Mag’s minutes to Hyatt you can at least argue that Hyatt being more of an offensive threat offsets some of the defensive drop off.
Once you have Caleb out too now you are replacing that with Palm, Simpson, Miller, etc. it’s not clear that’s an offensive upgrade and it’s a huge defensive downgrade. We are definitely multiple points worse at this point
Defense is half the game. He's the reigning DPOY. If you're only looking at his PPG you're doing it wrong
I’m just telling you how Vegas works. Whether you want to believe it or not is up to you.
The thread is "guess the line". That isn't my opinion, but that is pretty much how Vegas operates (and they are usually pretty good at setting a line). Personally, I think he is an important player but we as fans probably overvalue our guys too.
So your prediction is Michigan -6? Just want to make sure I have this on record.
Only barely. Mag and caleb out are major losses against a team as athletic as Michigan.
My expectations are low for this game, like keep the loss under 10 low. If we manage to steal this it will be a massive win.
"Vegas" certainly isn't ignoring injuries to multiple starters...being on top of these types of rotation changes is how some of the most successful handicappers/groups gain their edge.
If Michigan is healthy and McConnell is out, I'd expect something like Rutgers -2 (and I would have expected something like -4.5 with a fully healthy Rutgers team).
Not sure if you guys are giving your own lines or guessing the actual line, but there’s basically no way we are an underdog on the actual line imo
Agree there is very little chance we are underdogs at home here even in the worst case scenario
It's rather sad. We were arguably the best defensive team in America with Mag and Caleb. I don't understand how folks don't think that's a 10-point (or more) handicap. I mean, if you think it's no big deal, that means you believe Oskar/Dean/Simpson can make up the difference. I just don't see it. We now need a monumental performance pretty much out of Spencer to win games.
We are completely a different basketball team with McConnell and Mag out
You just don't understand how much 10 points is. You guys that think people are worth this much are right about the qualitative factors that make them important, you just don't understand how much 10 points truly is.
5 points per player per game is basically the difference between the best and the worst teams in all of division 1.
Well we can agree to disagree. This is asking a lot of Andre and Palmquist. Particularly Oskar. It's also asking a lot of Cliff with no help from Mag defensively. I hope you are right, but I do think no Mag and Caleb is a 10-point handicap. That said, I would love to see Cam and/or Oskar dropping bomb after bomb rest of way.