We’re not talking resume, we’re talking basketball. Again Indiana I highly disagree but I’ll give you that one if you want. Maryland no way. We were 6.5 favorites over Maryland. That was supposed to be a comfortable win.
Guess the Michigan Line
- Thread starter Miggins
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Wisconsin sucks this year. They won't make Tournament. Their fans are embarrassed by the team given their spectacular history. I believe they have made NCAAs 23 of past 24 years. Everyone knows they are neither offensively or defensively proficient, and a slow group at that.
I don't expect Wisconsin to end up Q1. I don't expect them to make the tournament either
A Q2 road win against a team not in the field is not as good of a win as Q1 home win against a team in the field
It just doesn't work that way no matter what win you think was "harder"
Ok.
FWIW I agree with you that at Wisconsin is tougher than vs Maryland. But from a resume perspective that won't matter.
Also, the line at the time is a little misleading. Maryland has been playing better.. that game was not Q1 at the time.
14-1 at home and 2-7 on the road. This isn’t a fluke. They are bad on the road and almost unbeatable at home.
Well, a combination of fluke and just expected. Obviously road games are tougher in the first place and all of the cupcake games are at home.
Everyone else is talking resume since that's the only thing that actually matters not random poster's personal feelings
This. Same games I cited before. Get the heck outta here with your 3rd best win. If that was our 3rd best win, we are squarely on outside looking in lol
Yea that pretty much sums it up. If Wisconsin actually was our 3rd best win we wouldn't be in the field
If you're making conclusions like that based on nine game noise, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
PS they were underdogs in every game they lost on the road except 1
No we were talking about our ability to win without mag and caleb. You turned it into a discussion about resume for no reason. If we can beat wisky on the road without those two then running the table isn’t out of the question. I do not care about Ohio state net ranking.
FWIW, the major models would most likely agree with him here. At Wisconsin is definitely considered tougher than vs Maryland. Indiana is closer. The quads aren't really aligned properly.
Yes they were underdogs because they aren’t good on the road. They’re playing the same teams that they played at home for the most part. It’s not a fluke.
There isn't a single person on this board, in New Jersey, or in America who agrees with your bonehead take that beating a crap Wisconsin team was our 3rd best win all year. Own your fail.
So in this thread you simultaneously believe that:
(1) Vegas will not adjust it's line when a team is missing two starters and
(2) Vegas was clued into how bad Maryland was on the road specifically (note.. many of these games were BEFORE they even had a bad road record) and is radically adjusting their lines based on that like 3 game sample (since it was earlier in the season).
Sometimes you seem to participate in good faith but that is either trolling or serious cognitive dissonance.
Buddy there’s a reason why you’re constantly getting ignored in every thread lol
We really need to define what 3rd best win means. If we literally mean difficultly level I think I agree with him actually. And so does Bart/Kenpom.
I mean it was already proven correct that the metrics don’t view mag or Caleb very highly. You responded to that so I know you saw it. We all know that Vegas based their spreads on those values. The fact that you’re now arguing this just shows you want to argue. You do you buddy.
Which metrics? The offense only ones?
Standard models (which sportsbooks are using to set their opening lines) are almost universally not having team specific home court advantages, and if they do the variance between them is tiny. I mean, look at the industry leaders here when it comes to publicly available ones
Torvik? Same HCA for everyone
Kenpom? Ditto
Sagarin? Ditto
Massey? Team specific HCA! It ranges all the way from 2.63 ppg up to 3.09, a whopping 0.46ppg difference between most and least.
Weird how none of these guys have managed to figure out what is so obvious from the numbers 2-7.
Actually, quite a few people like my posts, even if some don't. If we are hanging our hats on a road win in Madison against a team that will not make Tournament and Wisconsin people are embarrassed of, well, we need help.
Also I mean, there are other metrics. Box plus-minus for example..
Caleb is +4.3
Mag is +3.6
Hyatt is +2.8
Simpson -0.2
Reiber -0.4
Palmquist -1.7
When you lose Mag and replace as much as possible with more Hyatt the dropoff is mitigated somewhat. But Hyatt is already at max usage before you lose Caleb. So you are replacing Caleb basically 100% with people that are below 0 on BPM which is at least a 4 point per 100 possession hit. Which is 3+ points per game.
Caleb is +4.3
Mag is +3.6
Hyatt is +2.8
Simpson -0.2
Reiber -0.4
Palmquist -1.7
When you lose Mag and replace as much as possible with more Hyatt the dropoff is mitigated somewhat. But Hyatt is already at max usage before you lose Caleb. So you are replacing Caleb basically 100% with people that are below 0 on BPM which is at least a 4 point per 100 possession hit. Which is 3+ points per game.
No, you said it was the 3rd best win. The NET rankings and quadrants are how the committee sorts the wins
Q1 wins are better than Q2 wins
When the committee looks at our resume the Indiana win is going to look more impressive. Indiana is a projected 4 seed right now and ranked 17th
Wisconsin has Iowa Michigan Purdue and Minnesota left. There is a strong chance they don't even make the dance. A road win against a Q2 team not in the tournament is not some banner win to hang your hat on
I think this conversation is over your head dude. Having fun with the resume talk though.
Why would we not define it by the resume value? It's the only thing that matters. The tournament is everything. It's why there are constant threads and discussions non stop about seeding and making the tournament
Yea dude. All of these teams are very even so home court decides whose favorite. Did you just realize that? Lol I guess better late than never. So you think Caleb being out us gonna affect the line huh? I’d love to hear your prediction for the spread.
I dunno, because you can have interesting conversations about different things even if they aren't relevant to NCAA seeding or whatever. Like,
(1) which win is better from a resume perspective?
(2) which win is better in some kind of general perspective, ignoring injuries?
(3) which win is better taking injuries into account?
They can all be interesting questions but they are different questions with possibly different answers and people are talking past each other here. FWIW I think you are clearly correct if the question is #1.
Wut? That's not responsive to my post at all. Did you understand it?
I already predicted it. RU -2.5
I've already said the Wisconsin win was insanely important considering the losing streak and winning on the road with Mag and Caleb out. It was absolutely enormous
You’ve agreed with everything I said but just love arguing. I don’t hate your style. Until next time.
I spent 5 maybe 10 mins reading this thread and thankfully by the 3rd page just skimmed. This making my top 5 worst threads so far in 2023.
Guess the line means what you think Vegas going to make it. Not what you think it should be blah blah blah.
Guess the line means what you think Vegas going to make it. Not what you think it should be blah blah blah.
No your takes are just dumb *** takes. This was the most dumb *** take I've ever heard actually.
Do you think this post increased the quality of the thread?
FWIW, I’m almost positive that Ken does use his custom HCAs for each team (though certainly agree that no one that’s handicapping seriously is looking harshly at Maryland’s 9 game sample size, several of which ended up being close losses).