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Guess the Michigan Line

G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
fluoxetine said:
Also I mean, there are other metrics. Box plus-minus for example..

Caleb is +4.3
Mag is +3.6
Hyatt is +2.8
Simpson -0.2
Reiber -0.4
Palmquist -1.7

When you lose Mag and replace as much as possible with more Hyatt the dropoff is mitigated somewhat. But Hyatt is already at max usage before you lose Caleb. So you are replacing Caleb basically 100% with people that are below 0 on BPM which is at least a 4 point per 100 possession hit. Which is 3+ points per game.
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BPM is garbage....but forget that for a second....

Is it possible one's BPM is impacted by the other 4 on the court AND the loss of Mag and McConnell could lower the "expected" BPM of some of the players? I suppose it could work the opposite though.
 
S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,448
49,369
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
BPM is garbage....but forget that for a second....

Is it possible one's BPM is impacted by the other 4 on the court AND the loss of Mag and McConnell could lower the "expected" BPM of some of the players? I suppose it could work the opposite though.
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It's not the opposite. Caleb and Mag helped cover for others who got beat all the time. We definitely don't look as "connected" on defense as well did with them
 
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L

Luvscarletknights

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2018
3,577
4,283
113
I love these articles mentioning how Michigan may be short players playing at Rutgers again. Boo Hoo..

Though no mention about our team with injuries.
 
CranfordKnight

CranfordKnight

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2006
4,052
3,880
113
It happens every thread about the lines- the lines are not designed to predict the score of the game. Lots of casual fans will based on our record, computer predictions, previous results, common opponents, being at home, etc, while more informed fans will weigh the effect of the injuries, matchups, etc. All that goes into setting the line so that even money is bet on both sides.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,897
0
CranfordKnight said:
It happens every thread about the lines- the lines are not designed to predict the score of the game. Lots of casual fans will based on our record, computer predictions, previous results, common opponents, being at home, etc, while more informed fans will weigh the effect of the injuries, matchups, etc. All that goes into setting the line so that even money is bet on both sides.
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The opening lines are outputs of statistical models, and are essentially predictions of the game.

As long as a bookmaker is properly capitalized, it doesn’t need to worry about balancing action on every single event. If the lines are set well enough (as predictions of the outcome) they cannot lose in the long run.
 
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F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,897
0
FinalFourOrBust said:
Eh this line couldn’t be any higher.
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Well actually it could be infinitely higher. My model had it at 6.5 without any injury effects.
FinalFourOrBust said:
Think you had it at 2.5.
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Contingent on McConnell sitting and everyone from Michigan playing, yes. This isn’t known. Though I will admit based on the current line it wouldn’t move all the way to that even if that info came out now.
 
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