Anyone betting against Rutgers with 2.5 spread I hope if Michigan wins they beat us by 1 point so you morons are doubly miserable
Guess the UM opening line
- Thread starter RUfanSinceAnderson
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Lol it's exactly the same concept with the spread (the real numbers are $110 and $100, not $200 and $100). LOL fail.
They have no edge no matter what. The line may not (almost certainly is not) perfectly correct, but these people from this thread very obviously do not have the tools to identify that and generate any positive edge from it.
Yea I was pointing out your 200-100 was argued in good faith because it wasn’t but you know that. So basically you just think every bet is a bad bet? There’s many people who make money gambling but I guess you just think they’re lucky lol. This is sad.
I don’t bet sports. Because I know that I can’t beat the vig in the long run. But saying that everyone who bets sports has a negative expectation ignores the evidence that some bettors have proven themselves to have an edge against the house. Haralabos Voulgaris made himself rich and was hired by the Dallas Mavs as Director of Quantitative Research and Development. He recently moved on to buying a Spanish soccer club.
What are you talking about? I'm trying to explain the concept of expected value to you since you clearly do not understand it. I'm not trying to claim the odds Vegas are offering are as bad as that.
There are ways to find positive EV in sports betting, yes. The people squinting at the Michigan line and posting "hurr durr we suck this line is wrong" are not the people who can do this. They are just flipping coins and losing the vig. If they happen to win money, yes they are just lucky.
It's not impossible to generate alpha in the stock market either, but if some dumbass stumbles in here to tell us how the S&P is obviously over/under valued for whatever the alpha they are bringing is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000%.
Sure way to be on path to gamblers anonymous , bet sports. Too many games all day including races , golf, etc. I love casinos and not too long ago was in Vegas monthly but would not often bet sports. Knew many who made tons in the business from those who think they're experts. It's sad the state is sucking in so many young people . They all figure they can predict winners.
Three things that always surprise people when I talk to them about sports gambling (I'm relatively successful, somewhere toeing the line between a "very serious amateur" and a mediocre "semi-pro")...
1 - I work WAY harder than they'd ever think...researching info, making power ratings, updating, sitting in front of the screen for hours looking for updates and comparing lines, etc
2 - I'm much more likely to have money on a WNBA, XFL, Euro Golf, tiny NCAAB conference game than I am an NFL/NBA/MLB game. I can't find an edge in a major US sport...I can in the fringe sports (and thus why the limits on them are so much smaller)
3 - Having $ on a game makes me no more likely to watch or follow it...this week, I'll be watching bubble games and whatnot as they interest me to a far greater level.
1 - I work WAY harder than they'd ever think...researching info, making power ratings, updating, sitting in front of the screen for hours looking for updates and comparing lines, etc
2 - I'm much more likely to have money on a WNBA, XFL, Euro Golf, tiny NCAAB conference game than I am an NFL/NBA/MLB game. I can't find an edge in a major US sport...I can in the fringe sports (and thus why the limits on them are so much smaller)
3 - Having $ on a game makes me no more likely to watch or follow it...this week, I'll be watching bubble games and whatnot as they interest me to a far greater level.
I saw DK is posting like college lacrosse and hockey lines now.. I assume that stuff is pretty attackable but I also assumed my limits would get cut to like $15 if I won two bets so it just doesn't feel worth it.
agree with all of this! NFL/NBA and large conference college hoops are rough long term.
i only bet decent money on MLB where you can dissect numbers and handicap pitchers, pitcher current form and lineup matchups and play 1st 5s team totals or MLs. K props also if you have the outs for them and the timing as lines move so quickly now when they come out. doesn't take long to find batter K% in past 30/60 days vs lefty for each guy in the lineup, vs league avg 23% , compare to lifetime #s vs that pitcher as well, compare to the pitcher K% vs lefty/righty in past month, and come up with your own little formula for a plus play. fangraphs pay service is great and allows export. for current form the guys at PitcherList also blog summary of every start daily for every pitcher and note velocity changes and or/approach changes.
I also think it's super funny when people perpetuate the "it's all about balancing the money" myth. How much money do you think DraftKings expects to draw on the O/U 25 line they posted for the UMass Lowell / Jacksonville lacrosse game this afternoon? You might have the opportunity to balance the action and guarantee a profit on major stuff like NFL point spreads but when you are putting up that many esoteric markets obviously it's going to be more about getting the line close to right (and charging a lot of vig and banning/limiting the people who beat them)
if you follow those sports those are definitely what you should be playing. it's a game though , you have to throw little money on other major sports now and then. if you JUST bet those fringe and started winning, even small amounts at a time, will get flagged.
I think I was on my 4th different 5dimes account by the time they closed their doors to US customers...unfortunately, not quite as easy to pull off with the US facing books. But I'm definitely more cautious with the NJ books, since I don't want the headache of getting shut out of DK or something that big.
did you ever talk to Tony? i did one time on chat, he was actually pretty cool. was a shame what happened to him.
WNBA has fat, juicy lines. That said, NCAAF is normally easy to cherry pick, at least through September / early October.
Plenty of times in chat. I was part of the large crowd that wasn’t a big fan of him, though I never would have wished that ending on him.
I do a lot with international soccer in the summers, and NCAAB is my most labor-intensive sport starting in early September. So, I'll follow some others on NCAAF, but not willing to put in the time to do it myself during the late summer/fall.
"Know thyself". I don't go anywhere near MLB (ever), and barely any NCAAB or NFL. In NCAAF, I stay out of the SEC in general. The old Big East (Pitt, BC, Louisville, Syracuse) and most of the PAC seem to have better / easier lines.
In his defense, some of the times were ones where I probably deserved it, but man was he a cocky SOB. I'd usually play dumb and he'd get so pissed. I remember a day where I maxed out (it was only like $500 or $1k) a MLB 5 inning total where they clearly has the full game line by mistake (so I played like u9.5) and he basically said give me the $ back or I close your account. Or when I was playing stuff from a really successful service (or I could probably say, about the only really successful service) before I knew enough to hide it/play it elsewhere, and since I was beating the lines before they steamed, he put me on about a 2-3 minute delay, which made it impossible to play any halftime plays from that day forward under that account.
Line already to 3.5 where I am looking two places. 4 by tomorrow?
Thanks…I had seen clips of it, but never the full interview. Appreciate you posting it.
Mr results don’t prove anything is now using results to prove his point. Lol too funny.
