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fatguy87

All-American
Oct 8, 2004
13,764
9,093
0
A large portion of our defensive woes is because we have no continuity from last season.

Pope had BYU playing better defense. They weren't elite by any stretch, but the median BYU team he coached was much better than this team on defense. We'd be fringe top 10 right now in Kenpom if we were as good defensively as BYU was last year. The difference? Year to year continuity. A core group of players, even if they didn't play much, carry the experience and a sort of psychology about how to play within the coach's framework. There isn't a need to reinvent the wheel twice.

Alabama returned a core of 4 players that rank in the top 6 in minutes played this year from a team that was horrible on defense. They added some freshman talent and a fantastic paint defender who plays just 18 minutes a game and they've jumped from ranking in the 100's to the top 40 in defensive efficiency. Is Cliff Omoruyi playing less than 20 minutes game worth a 70 spot jump in adjusted defensive efficiency? The returning players also got better at defending by gaining experience playing together.
 
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C

cole854

Heisman
Sep 11, 2012
10,156
22,638
0
HymanKaplan said:
What we DON’T have a bunch of:


quality guards, and the only two we DO HAVE, are beat to hell/seriously injured.
Click to expand...

In the game that Pope runs....

Oweh is a guard.
Robinson is a guard.
Brea is a guard.
Almonor is a guard. (168 3's the last 2 years has went poof in the wind)

Despite Brea being a one trick pony, you aren't going to find too many teams w/ 4 quality perimeter players like this.
 
H

Hank Camacho_rivals115797

Heisman
Aug 10, 2021
6,263
17,746
0
Ansley Almonor and Trent Noah both entered Club Trillion last night. Almonor played 15 and a half minutes. Noah played 13. Neither one made any dent in the stat sheet other than clocking playing time. It wasn't like either was bringing any defense -- especially Almonor.

Hard to win when you are getting 28 minutes of literally ZERO production.
 
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U

ukalumni00

Heisman
Jun 22, 2005
23,723
40,406
113
Kooky Kats said:
The two things that DO worry me, regardless of talent level or injuries, is the lack of effort on 50/50 balls and lazy effing passes.

THAT is direct effort and a coaching item that has regressed all season.
Click to expand...
Think some is coaching but a lot of it is the players being soft. He needs to find several dawgs who have the natural instincts to play with a high sense of urgency. Most of these players are not it.
 
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wildcatadam6

wildcatadam6

All-Conference
Mar 28, 2005
26,522
1,746
83
HymanKaplan said:
The ridiculous number of Highest Quality Wins, combined with the circumstances under which this roster had to be assembled, divided by the crucial injuries we’ve had = ZERO red *** from me.*

*and you old-timers can appreciate the weight of that.

This team has a glut of players that are essentially the same guy: 6’6 guys that can get hot occasionally, can’t play defense, and have sketchy handles.

What we DON’T have a bunch of:


quality guards, and the only two we DO HAVE, are beat to hell/seriously injured.

End of story
Click to expand...
Can’t believe it, but Clown is calming me down about my favorite sports team. Even MY dog is chill and not walking on eggshells.
 
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august-west

august-west

Heisman
May 21, 2002
61,575
18,221
78
cole854 said:
In the game that Pope runs....

Oweh is a guard.
Robinson is a guard.
Brea is a guard.
Almonor is a guard. (168 3's the last 2 years has went poof in the wind)

Despite Brea being a one trick pony, you aren't going to find too many teams w/ 4 quality perimeter players like this.
Click to expand...

Oweh’s shot his broken and he had trouble finishing through contact last night. Robinson can’t create his shot and is Charmin soft. Brea, see Robinson and he can’t guard a screen door. Almonor is a nice 8/9 man. Quality is not the adjective I would use to describe them.
 
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PTI Anon1640710541

Heisman
Nov 14, 2002
40,458
53,107
113
Without our two best point guards, the opposing team can extend their defense as far out as they want, and dare us to beat them off the dribble (which we can't). So what we're left with is taking contested jumpers, and watching Amari Williams mindlessly stuff the stat sheet as we trade our tough 2s for their open 3s. It's like watching re-runs of Oscar Tshiebwe put up historic numbers, win National Player of the Year, and yet wondering why our team still sucks.




It's so incredibly frustrating, because our head coach truly deserves better. He's done EVERYTHING right so far, and this could have, should have been a fairy tale season. But without Butler and Kerr, and without a healthy Carr, we'll be lucky to limp into the tournament.
 
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B

btodd0224 n/a?

All-Conference
Jun 14, 2003
1,304
1,545
78
We missed 8 layups in the first half alone. It was as if Isaiah Briscoe was back on the team. Make those and the missed free throws and the outcome is different. Lack of concentration and toughness.

Still doesn’t change the fact that we’re chasing on defense and they were absolutely unconscious shooting.

We’re also standing around a lot and not moving like we did first of the year. They were cutting and setting screens better the first part of the 2nd half. That changed when Robinson started being a black hole, you just knew he was going to force something up.
 
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B

BBdK

Heisman
Sep 21, 2003
159,783
74,127
0
Robinson can't take enough shots to satisfy me, even tough ones. Black hole? I kinda wish, tbh. 18 points last night, on 6-13 (5-10), while playing a position he has no business playing and was forced into out of pure desperation.

vs. Arkansas he had 20 points, on 6-9 (4-6), but was quiet in the 2H, and only got a few shots up. He's playing very well, seems like he's being unfairly singled out b/c he SUCKS at point guard? Well, no ****. Kid is slow as molasses & has a pretty weak handle - he literally has to dribble backwards to avoid the ball being taken from him b/c he can't get around anybody, especially a quick opposing guard. Probably why he's never played point guard until recently, imo.

In SEC play, he's averaging 16ppg on 48% from 3. Not sure what so many of you were expecting of the kid, or why he's the defualt whipping boy for so many, but he's the least of our issues right now.
 
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Catman100

Catman100

Heisman
Jan 3, 2003
6,947
10,266
96
B.B.d.K. said:
Robinson can't take enough shots to satisfy me, even tough ones. Black hole? I kinda wish, tbh. 18 points last night, on 6-13 (5-10), while playing a position he has no business playing and was forced into out of pure desperation.

vs. Arkansas he had 20 points, on 6-9 (4-6), but was quiet in the 2H, and only got a few shots up. He's playing very well, seems like he's being unfairly singled out b/c he SUCKS at point guard? Well, no ****. Kid is slow as molasses & has a pretty weak handle - he literally has to dribble backwards to avoid the ball being taken from him b/c he can't get around anybody, especially a quick opposing guard. Probably why he's never played point guard until recently, imo.

In SEC play, he's averaging 16ppg on 48% from 3. Not sure what so many of you were expecting of the kid, or why he's the whipping boy for so many, but he's the least of our issues right now.
Click to expand...
I agree. He is absolutely doing the best he can with what he has to work with.
You could see the first time he brought the ball up the court against Arkansas that he was at a disadvantage against Wagner. That Arkansas advantage had a big effect on our offense. Butler in that game would have helped the offense and slowed Wagner down as well.
We must get Butler back if we are to make any noise this March.
 
UKwizard

UKwizard

Heisman
Dec 11, 2002
21,312
13,875
113
Most of my ire towards any player was on the defensive end and lack of urgency to get loose balls. A Kentucky player was nearest to numerous 50/50 balls and failed to get them. Once again even without a true point, we scored enough points to win the game had we some defensive intensity in the first half.
 
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TheShowKiller

TheShowKiller

Heisman
Dec 30, 2002
13,648
13,439
113
Butler is the most important but Carr being a shell of himself is a massive problem as well, he is our most versatile big who, when right, was good for a handful of easy buckets (that we aren't getting now) and a huge part in operating the offense. He is also long and was an important cog on D...now, he just can't move at all.

I hate this for Pope, there is no question we've suffered from some effort issues in spurts but the majority of this just comes from having a team that was just athletic and skilled enough when healthy to pass as a top 12ish squad to the domino effect of having to rotate guys that are not ready to compete in the SEC. I'm not saying there aren't certain things he could do better but it would be a nitpick, John Wooden couldn't win with the current version of this team in this league.
 
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K

k_s_t_a

All-Conference
Mar 12, 2005
2,349
1,243
66
I don’t know. I agree with almost everything that’s been said re: our defensive struggles, but part of me thinks there’s also a pretty good argument that it comes to this: we beat Tennessee because they only made 11 of their 45 mostly wide-open 3PAs, and we lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss because they made 26 of their 55. That’s basketball.
 
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U

UnfrozenCatfanLawyer

Heisman
Mar 25, 2004
14,660
62,013
0
ksta said:
I don’t know. I agree with almost everything that’s been said re: our defensive struggles, but part of me thinks there’s also a pretty good argument that it comes to this: we beat Tennessee because they only made 11 of their 45 mostly wide-open 3PAs, and we lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss because they made 26 of their 55. That’s basketball.
Click to expand...
You won’t convince me that we haven’t been unlucky in terms of how some teams have shot against us - the Arkansas game being a prime example. If they shoot their average, we win.
 
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fatguy87

All-American
Oct 8, 2004
13,764
9,093
0
There has been a run of bad shooting luck in the last couple of games for sure. Ole Miss and Arkansas torched us from deep.

We are bound to lose big in those situations because we can’t put on the clamps on scoring inside the arc and we force no turnovers. In our two game losing streak, our opponents have averaged like 4 turnovers a game or something crazy like that.

UT only turned it over a handful of times too, but we won because they laid brick after brick from 3.

Our “stop” generator is rebounding missed 3’s.
 
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krazykats

Heisman
Nov 6, 2006
23,768
14,723
0
-My issue with Robinson is his laissez fair approach at just about every aspect. Sure he scores and shoots great, but not exactly when we need it to STOP scoring droughts.

His lob passes around the perimeter are also very annoying.

But as was noted, when/if we get an actual PG back some of that goes away and his laissez fair approach isn’t as bothersome because he isn’t setting the plays up then and urgency isn’t on him.


- Love the idea of Noah being with the starters. They need energy, and too much is made of his no stats last night. Pope used him for 90 seconds at a time except for the 4 minute run he got with my energy lineup and we cut it to 11 before ole Miss finally hit a couple shots and that lineup was pulled with 9 minutes to go and Noah didn’t see the court again until 2 minutes left.


- Feels like we just came off a west coast NBA road trip with that 6 game run. USC, OU, Texas, Vandy and LSU for 5 of our last 8 could get us back on track but the hunger for wins has to be there.

We’re still good, and this is a rough first year for coach in this SEC, but you can’t let up and they are being forced to deal with that.

- Lastly the past 5 years we had this same ability to lose to anyone, and that’s fair to say for this year too at this point. However Pope and this group has a fighters chance in every game IMHO where we haven’t had that in years past.

I’ll take that and be happy year 1 especially given the injuries.
 
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k_s_t_a

All-Conference
Mar 12, 2005
2,349
1,243
66
ukalum01 said:
Against a really good Ole Miss defense…
84 points shooting 50% from the field, 47% from 3 with 10 makes, 21 assists, only 8 turnovers.

Even without Butler, offense wasn’t the issue last night. Not even close.
Click to expand...
We actually passed Alabama for 2nd in Kenpom in adjOE last night. We scored 53 in the 2nd half against a top-15 defense.

Unfortunately, we also fell to 112th in adjDE.

Again, silver linings: 2024 Alabama finished 2nd in adjOE and 111th in adjDE and made the Final Four. There's no "ceiling" on this team.
 
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Hank Camacho_rivals115797

Heisman
Aug 10, 2021
6,263
17,746
0
@fatguy87 is there a primer YouTube video on basketball analytics for dumbos like me? I'd like to be knowledgable of the statistics beyond the basic box score (and more recently the +/-) I've become accustomed over the years.

Before Pope I avoided any knowledge of such sorcery to shield my fan psyche.
 
K

krazykats

Heisman
Nov 6, 2006
23,768
14,723
0
Texas was -8 and bet down to -7 so far.

I’m betting on Texas, but damn I hope Fland being hurt which is leading to Nelly Davis having the ball in his hand more isn’t going to turn them around.

- Local Kroger had store picks of OESV and OESO today, and cases of OF 1924.

That’s the first bourbon I’ve bought in months.
 
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krazykats

Heisman
Nov 6, 2006
23,768
14,723
0
A lot of season left but with this win tonight Arkansas has escaped the possible rematch with us.

F Cal!
 
K

k_s_t_a

All-Conference
Mar 12, 2005
2,349
1,243
66
Slow GYERO day, so hopefully nobody minds if I indulge in a bit of a deep dive on what’s been going on with our defense. This was inspired by Pope’s comments today, which I found very interesting. If you missed it, he said “maybe my faith in the numbers is getting challenged right now… I’ve been an analytics guy my whole career, and haven’t felt bludgeoned like I have by the numbers, especially recently.” He went on to say we are the least disruptive team in the league. He also specifically mentioned midrange shots, off-the-dribble shots, and several other things.

To start with, here is a plot of our game-by-game defensive efficiency, which is basically how many points we give up per 100 possessions.


Couple things jump out: the Ole Miss game was our worst defensive performance of the season (2nd worst was actually the Florida win). Secondly, we started the season pretty solid defensively, but have fallen off a cliff recently. In particular, we have really tanked the last 5 games, so let’s focus on those.

In those 5 games, we are:
- 2nd in adjOE (barely behind Missouri)
- 244th in adjDE.

What’s driving the precipitous fall? Several things, but I’ll highlight just a few:

1. Teams are taking 51.1% of their total FGAs against us from 3, which is a preposterous rate. Unfortunately, despite this huge volume, they’re also shooting 37.1% from 3 on these attempts, which is a really high number. Div-I average is about 33.5. Again, this number includes the Tennessee 11-45 performance, so that tells you how well everybody else is shooting it against us.

2. The trade off is we are allowing only 18% of opponent’s shots to come at the rim, which is incredible. The best number for the whole season is only 24.8%. So where are the rest of the shots coming from? Midrange, which is where you would like your opponents to take a ton of shots. However, our opponents are also hitting 51.9% of their midrange 2s over this span. Div-I average is about about 37%.

In fact, our opponents are shooting unbelievably well from just about everywhere. Here are some field goal percentages and percentiles for our opponents over this 5-game span:

- at the rim: 76.3% (100th percentile)
- midrange: 51.9% (100th percentile)
- above-the-break 3s: 38.4% (97th percentile)

Look at this shooting chart:



That is a lot of red. “Bludgeoned” is a pretty good word for that.

3. Our forced-turnover rate is 7.9%, which is good for 364th place. There are 364 teams in Division I. And the gap between us and number 363 is a full percentage point.

In summary, our strategy seems to have been to keep teams away from the rim by not gambling and sagging off “non-shooters.” On paper, that would seem to make sense with a depleted roster, and it worked very well against Tennessee. However, it’s not working at all against everybody else.

In general, the most likely explanation for outlier performances is a small sample size. If you flip a coin 40 times, there’s an 80% chance of getting 5 heads in a row at least once. However, it’s really hard to ignore that abysmal turnover rate, and I don’t think Pope is doing that - he also said that maybe teams are outperforming their expectations against us just because they’re so comfortable.

All in all, no definitive answers here, but I actually felt a lot better after hearing him talk about things today. I think he recognizes the issues and will do what he can to address them. I also think even if nothing changes it’s extremely unlikely that teams will continue to shoot this well against us the rest of the season.
 
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