should make this year with the Adidas deal, SEC network, stadium expansion and seat donations, etc.?
Has anyone done the math on how much additional revenue we...
- Thread starter The Usual Suspect
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Probably a couple years out still, but $100,000,000 annual is well within reason. My source on this is engie, so tread with caution.
I wouldn't care if Adidas put us in pink uniforms if they gave us 100 million per year.
I have to wonder if every single bit of that 100 million will be spent in the athletics department, or if they will use some of it in academics somewhere. I imagine we could hire 2 or 3 of the world's best engineering professors with some of that dough.... Just a thought.
A chunk of that money will be used to pay down the debt on these construction projects. How much I don't know.
Well let's do some quick assumptive math.
Sources
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sec&id=64053&src=desktop
http://m.outkickthecoverage.com/col...etwork-aims-for-500-million-a-year-launch.php. <--I know it's Clay Travis but it was the newest estimate I could find.
http://www.msubulldogclub.com/reseating/about-the-project/
We were at 69MM in 2013, The SEC deal is sharing 20.7 MM per school, 8800 seat at an average of 1500 apiece is 13.2MM. So 69+20+13=102. While not doubling it is over 100MM.
Sources
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sec&id=64053&src=desktop
http://m.outkickthecoverage.com/col...etwork-aims-for-500-million-a-year-launch.php. <--I know it's Clay Travis but it was the newest estimate I could find.
http://www.msubulldogclub.com/reseating/about-the-project/
This thread says $100 million additional
Not total. Unfortunately we're all still way behind the big boys of the SEC.
Not total. Unfortunately we're all still way behind the big boys of the SEC.
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I may have misread what Strat was saying
I know Engie has put that 100MM annual (not increase) number out there before so I assumed that is what they were referencing. No way in hell we increase by 100MM in 2 years. If that happens the SEC might as well join the NFL.
We would have to go to $140+ to "more than double our income"...
No, we're simply adding $30 mil to a $70 mil athletics department...
Eta: I see the confusion in how the question was worded now...
- Up $2mil in uniform revenue
- Up $5ish mil in bowl revenue
- Up $7-10 mil in stadium revenue
- Up about $27 mil when the SECNetwork reaches the same market saturation as espnu(the short term goal for distribution) with it's current pricing structure... That's assuming it's a 50/50 partnership and that the conference revenue distribution model stays the same(15 pieces to the pie with the conference operating on one piece)
Tacking all that on top of what is currently between a $60-70mil athletics dept is how I've always arrived at the $100mil number... Which I still think is pretty conservative overall... And should put us either in the top 25 overall athletics depts in the country -- or very close to it...
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$27mil per year for SEC? That's pretty sweet. And yes, the confusion was due to the first post, nice breakdown.
Yeah, the actual earning potential of that network is going to put MSU/OM permanently into a new tier financially...
What I'm really interested to see is how far espn tries to push the "inside market" pricing structure. North Carolina should be an interesting battleground because of the amount of college football fans and sec fans already there -- and they have something like 5 of the top 25 college football markets in the country in terms of viewership. Makes a huge difference in the bottom line for the conference if they can get $1.30 per there vs $0.25 per there...
What I'm really interested to see is how far espn tries to push the "inside market" pricing structure. North Carolina should be an interesting battleground because of the amount of college football fans and sec fans already there -- and they have something like 5 of the top 25 college football markets in the country in terms of viewership. Makes a huge difference in the bottom line for the conference if they can get $1.30 per there vs $0.25 per there...
SEC expansion is done for the next 10-12 years. The ACC and the Big 12 own the media rights to all their schools, and there's not other targets out there that would bring in the incremental revenue to make it work. But when the SEC does expand again, it won't be NC State. It'll be North Carolina.
Travis seems to be very much on the high end of predictions.
It's also a little fuzzy about what time frame he's talking about for some figures. More conservative estimates from last year didn't have the requested rate to work with (which will always be negotiated down by carriers), but they put the increase in revenue from the new bowl structure and SEC Network at $10-14 million in the short term. Add in the new Adidas money, and we should be in the mid-80's a year from now.
http://mrsec.com/2013/01/new-deals-...5-million-as-weve-been-saying-since-the-fall/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2013/01/16/sec-conference-money-increases/1836389/
It's also a little fuzzy about what time frame he's talking about for some figures. More conservative estimates from last year didn't have the requested rate to work with (which will always be negotiated down by carriers), but they put the increase in revenue from the new bowl structure and SEC Network at $10-14 million in the short term. Add in the new Adidas money, and we should be in the mid-80's a year from now.
http://mrsec.com/2013/01/new-deals-...5-million-as-weve-been-saying-since-the-fall/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2013/01/16/sec-conference-money-increases/1836389/
You say that, but UNC would never jump ship. We got A&M away from Texas because of some political BS, but UNC and Duke are going steady. No way you'd add one and not the other.
NC State on the other hand is based in Raleigh (big southern town with a lot of potential) and they'd leave in a heartbeat. If adding MU didn't prove that it's not about the actual team, just the location, I don't know what else would.
I just can't see UNC leaving Duke, Louisville, ND, Syracuse, Pitt, or even WF for a bunch of teams they have no history with. And by no history, I mean absolutely zero. It's not like the ACC is a complete cluster17 like the Big 12.
Raleigh gets you the entire state of North Carolina's TV market and parts of Virginia. That's without the speculation that it would also be VT.
Agreed on the part that it's not going to happen anywhere in the not-so-far future.
NC State on the other hand is based in Raleigh (big southern town with a lot of potential) and they'd leave in a heartbeat. If adding MU didn't prove that it's not about the actual team, just the location, I don't know what else would.
I just can't see UNC leaving Duke, Louisville, ND, Syracuse, Pitt, or even WF for a bunch of teams they have no history with. And by no history, I mean absolutely zero. It's not like the ACC is a complete cluster17 like the Big 12.
Raleigh gets you the entire state of North Carolina's TV market and parts of Virginia. That's without the speculation that it would also be VT.
Agreed on the part that it's not going to happen anywhere in the not-so-far future.
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None of what you said makes a difference... Nothing about history matters when you are talking billions of dollars of difference over the longterm.
The only way UNC avoids becoming an afterthought and athletically poor team in their own state is to be the one that jumps ship. When it comes to flourishing alone or dying together -- the choice becomes pretty simple...
Isn't a portion of that 69 mill budget derived from SEC sharing? Are you saying the SEC share per school is going up 20.7 million more?? That's a nice remodel for the Women's Volleyball facility right there.**
Both of those articles are out of date and speculate incorrectly on how the network is setup -- details that have now leaked.
- We know there are currently 30 million cable subscribers in the SEC footprint.
- We know there are 80ish million cable subscribers outside the footprint.
- We know the pricing structure($1.30 inside and $0.25 outside) -- and we know we have a ton of leverage with how the deal is set up.
- We know it's a 50/50 partnership with ESPN.
It's a simple math equation beyond that point. Not knowing exactly know we're going to define the "SEC" markets...
It's very possible the bowl structure itself will bring us close to an extra $10 million...The Sugar Bowl alone is now worth $40 mil to the SEC -- or about $3.66 million per team. And we're going to be in the Orange Bowl as well more times than not -- for an extra $27.5 -- or almost $2mil/team. That's 5.5 million per team before we even get the playoff money and increased revenue from the next tier of bowls that are all renegotiating...
Yes. And it'll go up significantly more than that eventually.
Just with the 2 companies already signed on(dish and uverse) -- that channel is already worth at least $135 million....5.5 months before launch...
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Sure, the SEC does better than any conference and that's a fact. But you're talking about the ACC like it's floundering. There's no proof that UNC would die by staying. Their basketball fan base is probably the 2nd biggest national fan base in the country only behind Duke. The money they draw has a LOT to do with playing Duke. They have a financial gain by leaving for the SEC but in reality they're already doing better than we are. It's not entirely about the money. If it was we'd already have VT.
The only real shot we have at a North Carolina school is NCSU, and I don't see why that's a bad thing. We already have LeBron James, it's time to add some role players. They would indeed provide us a valuable member while allowing our current rockstars to exist in harmony. I don't see how adding UNC over NCSU helps over the long run. Would be a big initial bump in cash but would mean that someone else is going to have 1 or 2 more losses on their schedule in every sport.
It won't happen for another 10-12 years. A lot can happen in that time. But if UNC is faced with a choice of join the SEC or leaving Duke to join the SEC themselves, I think they'll suddenly be a lot less tied to Duke. As for basketball, yeah the SEC sucks now, but it's still got more Sweet 16 teams than the ACC. And at some point you've got to think SEC basketball will turn it around again.
The gap between the SEC and 2nd place is going to grow exponentially over the next 5 years as the SECN gets established.
Well, if you take Travis' prediction at face value, and the SECN brings in $500 million in revenue, split that in half with ESPN and divide by 15, each schools gets $16.7 million more in revenue. That's not more than double what we get now, despite what he says. I'm guessing Dish got a nice discount on the $1.30/0.25 so that the SEC and ESPN could pressure DirecTV, so we'll see how accurate his predictions were next year.
Also, I wouldn't count the Orange Bowl hosting an SEC team even every other year with that extra payout. There are only 8 available years out of 12 that we can get that slot (with a minimum of 3 guaranteed), and you almost have to have a year where we only place one team in the playoff (the SEC champion can't go to the Orange if the Sugar is hosting a semifinal).
Also, I wouldn't count the Orange Bowl hosting an SEC team even every other year with that extra payout. There are only 8 available years out of 12 that we can get that slot (with a minimum of 3 guaranteed), and you almost have to have a year where we only place one team in the playoff (the SEC champion can't go to the Orange if the Sugar is hosting a semifinal).
I just don't think we could leave Ole Miss in any situation. Factor in that their rivalry usually means something in the grand scheme of things, has a national audience, and they're not hurting financially, I especially don't think they'd leave each other.
I love to hate Ole Miss, but we're intertwined and I wouldn't have it any other way. That has to mean something outside of money, which again they're not in a bind for in the ACC.
It still requires a number of assumptions.
First off, 30 million in-footprint subscribers, maximum revenue of $468 million.
Then, an assumed 40 million more outside the footprint for another $10 million. Not sure where Travis got that 40 million number, but I haven't noticed any other media sources list a different one.
Finally, an assumption of $100 million in advertising revenue.
Best case scenario: $578 million split 50/50 with ESPN, then divided 15 ways. $19.3 million more per school per year.
More realistic scenario: 30 million subscribers for $345 million
Another $8 million from out of footprint subscribers.
Keep the advertising at $100 million.
$453 million split with ESPN then 15 ways: $15.1 million more per school per year.
In Other Revenue news, the expected playoff payout should be around $52 million, up from $30 million with the old BCS. Orange Bowl berths should get us another $7 million a year on average. So, $29 million new from the playoffs, or $2 million per school.
http://espn.go.com/college-football...age-91-million-new-playoff-format-sources-say
First off, 30 million in-footprint subscribers, maximum revenue of $468 million.
Then, an assumed 40 million more outside the footprint for another $10 million. Not sure where Travis got that 40 million number, but I haven't noticed any other media sources list a different one.
Finally, an assumption of $100 million in advertising revenue.
Best case scenario: $578 million split 50/50 with ESPN, then divided 15 ways. $19.3 million more per school per year.
More realistic scenario: 30 million subscribers for $345 million
Another $8 million from out of footprint subscribers.
Keep the advertising at $100 million.
$453 million split with ESPN then 15 ways: $15.1 million more per school per year.
In Other Revenue news, the expected playoff payout should be around $52 million, up from $30 million with the old BCS. Orange Bowl berths should get us another $7 million a year on average. So, $29 million new from the playoffs, or $2 million per school.
http://espn.go.com/college-football...age-91-million-new-playoff-format-sources-say