Has Stans lost this team?

Brahmabull

Redshirt
Sep 18, 2008
127
0
0
Has Stans lost this team? By the way they played Saturday and their comments after the game, I am afraid he is either lossing or has lost this team. If that is the case, with them being "young", can he get them back for next year?
 

Brahmabull

Redshirt
Sep 18, 2008
127
0
0
Has Stans lost this team? By the way they played Saturday and their comments after the game, I am afraid he is either lossing or has lost this team. If that is the case, with them being "young", can he get them back for next year?
 

Brahmabull

Redshirt
Sep 18, 2008
127
0
0
Has Stans lost this team? By the way they played Saturday and their comments after the game, I am afraid he is either lossing or has lost this team. If that is the case, with them being "young", can he get them back for next year?
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,998
24,995
113
This is one of the few (maybe the only) Stans team that has not gotten better as it went deeper into the season. I can't remember a Stans team ever fading down the stretch like this one has.
 

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
39,314
18,602
113
of this team. We don't hit 3's, we don't win. It's as simple as that. Plus, our starting 5 plays a lot of minutes.
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
13,912
5,749
113
if so, and we continue to shoot a ton of 3's, I can' see us being much better next year.
 

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
20,283
1
0
have looked totally different to me in how the team is run and performs. And the trend doesnt look good.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,998
24,995
113
And we'll be back to a more traditional lineup. We may go 4-guards for small stretches in games, but I really doubt it'll be our normal lineup.
 

mstatefan88

Redshirt
Nov 30, 2008
3,396
0
0
If we play 4 guard next year Stans should be fired. Osby has enough talent to be a good PF, but he doesnt look it right now because when he gets the ball he doesnt know what to do with it because he doesnt get the ball in the game alot. He ends up with the ball alot on our high pick and roll and gets trapped and cant dish it to someone else alot of the times. If he and Kodi and Brian Johnson and Elgin actually got the ball and had offensive plays run for them instead of everyone running around, they would look more comfortable on the court.
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
13,912
5,749
113
I don't get all the hate for Osby on this board. He really plays hard when he is in there. He can put the ball on the floor and get in the lane. The problem right now is that he's not mature enough to make plays once he gets in the lane.

Throwing up 3s is fine and good when not much is expected of you and gets you some surprise wins like at Rupp. But when you have everyone coming back like we will (I guess that's a bad assumption at MSU), you need to learn to do more than jack up a 3.

It all comes down to the same problem--we have to start getting buckets in the half court offense. And without a mature superstar guard like Z, Bowers, or Jamont, Im not sure we'll ever know how to do that.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,998
24,995
113
which I never thought was a realistic expectation. The real problem with this team isn't that Osby isn't contributing, it's that Augustus isn't starting and making a major contribution (whether that's Stans's fault or Augustus's fault I don't know, but ultimately it's Stans's fault either way).
 

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
10,978
1,746
113
Look, I know we shoot a lot of threes, but it's not our only problem. When we don't shoot well from the floor, period, we lose. That isn't rocket science. The problem is we aren't nearly as good from the floor overall as we have been.

Here are some numbers.
We are 16-2 this year when we shoot over 40% from the field. We are 1-10 when we are under that. We average taking about 23 threes a game and hit ~36%
Last year we were 21-7 when we shot over 40%, and 2-4 when we were under. We took about 22 threes a game and hit ~33%.
The year before we were 21-8 when we were over 40% and 0-6 when we were under. We took about 21 threes per game and hit ~35.5%.

So we are actually taking only 1 or 2 more threes a game over the last two years and we are MAKING a higher percentage of them. But we have twice as many games where our overall percentage is under 40%. That goes back to having no inside presence. Jamoney and CRhodes would drive you crazy, but they made a living in the paint. We have no one this year who can do that consistently.
 

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
39,314
18,602
113
that our inside presence is horrible. When the ball goes to Jarvis, 2 things are going to happen when he shoots. A made basket or a defensive rebound. There is zero chance of getting an offensive rebound when Jarvis is on the block.

I wonder how many shots/game we are averaging less this year than past years. I also wonder what % of our shots are 3's compared to last year. I bet it's a lot closer to 50% which means if we make more 3's, we are more than likely to win.
 

fishwater99

Freshman
Jun 4, 2007
14,072
54
48
It's true and we have been dying.... It seems like we have to shoot 40% from 3 to win, and that is not good for any team.
Stans has failed to implement a half court offense once again, suprise, suprise...
The difference with this team is that we don't play defense or rebound, something Stans teams usually do well.
Next year will be more of the same...
 

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
39,314
18,602
113
since that is where we went to the small lineup...

For the whole season of 2007-2008, we took 1922 shots where 703 were 3/s for a % of 36.5% of our shots being 3 pointers. Compare to just the SEC season below (2009):

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 222pt;" width="295" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <col style="width: 70pt;" width="93"> <col style="width: 55pt;" width="73"> <col style="width: 49pt;" width="65"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 70pt;" width="93" height="17"> </td> <td class="xl24" style="border-left: medium none; width: 55pt;" width="73">Total Shots</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-left: medium none; width: 49pt;" width="65">3-pt shots</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" width="64"> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">at Arkansas</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">56</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">27</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">48.21%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Alabama</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">58</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">24</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">41.38%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Vandy</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">50</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">18</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">36.00%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">at LSU</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">52</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">20</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">38.46%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">at Georgia</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">56</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">24</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">42.86%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Ole Miss</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">54</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">31</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">57.41%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">at Kenucky</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">52</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">27</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">51.92%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Arkansas</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">55</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">29</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">52.73%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">LSU</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">77</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">24</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">31.17%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">at Auburn</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">72</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">35</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">48.61%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">South Carolina</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">67</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">26</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">38.81%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Alabama</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">80</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">39</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">48.75%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">at Tennessee</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">53</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">30</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">56.60%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Auburn</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">57</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">30</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">52.63%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> </td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;"> </td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;"> </td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;"> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Total</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">839</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">357</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" align="right">42.55%</td> </tr> </tbody> </col></col></col></col></table>
 

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
10,978
1,746
113
We are 7-11 when we are under 40% from three, and 10-1 when we are over. The over should not shock anyone. Any team shooting 40% or better on threes is likely to win. Guess how many teams in the SEC are shooting 40% as a team? Zero. Guess how many teams nationally....13. So that's a brilliant deduction...if for a game we shoot threes at a higher percentage than all but 13 teams in America, we are very likely to win that game. And here's a special bonus stat. Guess how many of those 13 teams are in the latest Top 25 rankings? One - UCLA. Three of them have losing records. So they are living by the three and still dying.
 

MSUArrowCS

Redshirt
Dec 19, 2006
686
0
0
is clearly on the defensive side of the ball. It doesn't take long to see that, even in the few minutes they get.

To me, the 4-guard stuff has been all about the defensive side of the ball. The only guy in there for offensive reasons is Ravern, and when he started cooling off, Benock (a better defensive player) started getting some of his minutes. Lately, we've been getting rolled on both sides of the ball, so the defensive stuff obviously hasn't been working.

One thing Stans could do is just put these guys out there and let them "play through" some stuff, especially on the defensive end. But that would mean a) taking Ravern, who is potentially our best offensive weapon out of the game or b) taking one of our two best perimeter defenders out of the game in Barry or Phil. And if any personnel change doesn't work and we were to lose out, even more idiots would be calling for Stansbury's head.

So which is it? Player development or giving us the best chance to win? Something's gotta give, and I don't even know which I would prefer at this point. I will blame Stansbury all day for player development, and I think that's one of his biggest faults, but we're in the middle of the season. Adjustments will come at a cost, and is a major adjustment justified when the losses (with the exception of LSU part 1 and Auburn) have been two possessions or less?
 

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
10,978
1,746
113
If my maf is right, that is 25.5 threes per game, so up maybe one three per half over past years. Notable, yes. Significant, dunno. I would guess that we also take more threes this year because we find ourselves trailing more. Probably the issue many of us have is the quality of three we take. We hit some very long ones that look great, but we take some horrible ones at times. I don't mean long ones or guarded ones. I mean one pass and heave it without trying to get a better one. Sometimes we take a shot with 25 seconds on the clock that the defense would GIVE us with 8 seconds left.
 

fishwater99

Freshman
Jun 4, 2007
14,072
54
48
I think you will see I have a vaild point.. We did not start 4 guards until right before SEC play.
The exception in the SEC was the LSU games, they made us try to beat them inside and did not give us the 3 point shots and they won.

My point is that we should not have been playing 4 guards and relying on the point shots to win games. My Big problem is that Stans found this 4 guard gimic and decided to live and die by the 3 pointer, instead of actually instituting a half court offemse(which he can't do). Stans has to be the worst offensive coach in the SEC. In the past he has made up for this inability with great team defense, rebounding, and a "go to guy" on offense.(J-Money, Roberts, Austin, etc..)
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
13,912
5,749
113
he is usually guarding the other team's 4.

I have no problem with taking Barry out for stretches, moving Phil to the 2 and letting Osby or Augustus get some minutes. Or take Ravern out when he disappears and move Phil to the 2. I don't think Osby's D is that bad in the interior. It can't be worse than letting him guard a 4 versus letting someone 6'2" guard a 4.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,998
24,995
113
In the last 5 games when the wheels really came off of this season, we've attempted 160 3-pointers out of 329 total shots. That's 32 3-point attempts per game and 49% of our shots from behind the arc and that's why we're getting our *** kicked.
 

MSUArrowCS

Redshirt
Dec 19, 2006
686
0
0
The four guard lineup that we have been playing is much better defensively than any "traditional" lineup we could put on the floor. I

I'll buy that in a heartbeat, especially considering that the fourth guard was/is Phil Turner. Even if we were willing to start Phil over Ravern, Osby/Augustus would get exposed down low - both of them are dysmal defensively. I'll take my defensive liability at the 3, given the choice. I think he's still trying to put the best defensive team on the floor.
 

MSUArrowCS

Redshirt
Dec 19, 2006
686
0
0
I'd still take Phil's defense inside over Osby or Augustus, regardless of height. He's been fine when guarding the perimiter, but you're right he hasn't had to do it much at all this year. I agree with you that Phil should move outside periodically to give Osby and Augustus more minutes, I just don't see the need for a (starting) lineup change. I'll take my defensive liability at the 3 (Ravern) over the 4 any day, and benching your best offensive option is a tough call.

A lot of people would be fine benching Barry Stewart, but he's our best *perimeter defender. Benching him and replacing him in the lineup with a guy like Osby would keep two guys on the floor that routinely get absolutely lost on defense. There's always the chance that Osby/Augustus would "find himself" defensively if given more minutes, but I'm not sold on that either.

Edit: Stewart is our best perimeter defender. Apologies to Jarvis Claus
 

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
20,283
1
0
I wish we would have kept playing Osby and Augustas at the 4 and gotten them time and experience all year. Having them challenged game after game would have produced results from these guys.

Rotate Bailey in to rest Swat at 5
Beckham backs up Bost
And a 3 man rotation at the 2 and 3 with Phil, Ravern, and Randy</p>

Johnson and Benock would only play if we were up 20 or down 20</p>
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,998
24,995
113
Coach34 said:
I wish we would have kept playing Osby and Augustas at the 4 and gotten them time and experience all year. Having them challenged game after game would have produced results from these guys. </p>
Playing guys who can't get the job done to get them "experience" is way overrated. Players get better in practice, not in games. Somehow Jarvis and Ravern managed to get better by their Soph. years without getting a lot of game experience their Fresh. years.
 

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
20,283
1
0
however, we could be alot better right now because we bit the bullet early and forced these guys to get better through experience and battling each night out.
 

99jc

Senior
Jul 31, 2008
2,494
486
83
and make 40 % you probably win if you shoot 4-3's and make 50% you may or may not win. we do live and die by the 3 because we shoot more than 4-5 a game.
 

fishwater99

Freshman
Jun 4, 2007
14,072
54
48
Osby and Kodi sharing time at the 4. I would much rather have those players developed for next year than where we are now in the season.
Now we will be no better off for next year at the 4 than we were before the season started. Sometimes you have to take a chance on young players and look forward to next year... I just don't see Stans making any changes... If we go with 4 guards again next year then Stans will be gone after the season...
Stans looked totally clueless against Auburn.. Why can't he institute a half court offense? If we don't score in offensive transition we look just like a Church-league team jacking three's.. This is the SEC, we deserve a coach he can call up and execute an offensive play. How about an in-bounds play?

</p>
 

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
39,314
18,602
113
I want the lineup on the floor that gives us the best chance to win that night. You worry about next year...the next year.
 

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
20,283
1
0
because we had nobody else, that didnt make us better for that famed NIT FF appearance? They didnt get better after starting the SEC 1-8 to finish 5-11?
 
Nov 16, 2005
27,052
19,460
113
You would start those guys even though they have shown that they can't start right now to develope for next year? So just throw away your season on a chance. That's brilliant.
 

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
20,283
1
0
would have given us a much better chance to win this past Saturday. We are 1-5 in our last 6 games...is this line-up we are playing giving us the best chance to win?
 

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
20,283
1
0
We changed right after the loss to Charlotte...against Charlotte we were 6-26 from 3 pt range...Stewart was 1-13 and 0-8 from 3...how is that Augustus and Osby's fault?

We were 6-3 with the normal line-up
 

MSUArrowCS

Redshirt
Dec 19, 2006
686
0
0
would have given us a much better chance to win this past Saturday. We are 1-5 in our last 6 games...is this line-up we are playing giving us the best chance to win?
With an emphasis on *now*. Saying that we should start guys who aren't ready just so they'll be ready later in the season is a totally different issue. I agree with everyone else that's said we shouldn't have to settle for sub-par starters. I will say I think we could have given those players (Osby and Augustus, throw in Brian Johnson too, IMO) a better chance to get in the flow of a game and prove themselves, develop, etc.

Stans isn't afraid to play freshmen and sophomores *if they are ready*. Look at the rest of the lineup.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,998
24,995
113
fishwater99 wrote:
Now we will be no better off for next year at the 4 than we were before the season started.
Osby will be a much improved player for us next year, which will allow Phil to move to the 3 and (hopefully) Randy to the bench.