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Hate to break it to some of yall

F

FreeDawg

Senior
Oct 6, 2010
3,863
643
98
But Ole Miss has a decent shot this Saturday. Better than ours last year. Is it because they have arrived? I'm sure that's what Rebel fans will tell you but this just isn't the same Bama team it has been. I did some research on this game. I found some wild numbers.

-Total offense Bama is 13th in the SEC 370.7 ypg
-They are last in SEC rushing offense 132 ypg
-In passing D they are 11th 250.3 ypg
-In total D the 9th at 373 ypg
-Opponent RZ conversions 9th
-Sacks allowed 9th (I think this drops all year long fwiw)
-They are 3rd worst in the SEC in opponents long plays from scrimmage
-4th in allowing oppenents 1rst downs

I'm sure some of the sunshine pumpers will come in and tell me this is all Texas A&M skewing the statistics. A&M didn't help their stats but you're wrong. I went back to 2008 looking at their defenses numbers even vs top offensive opponents and this year there is a dip. I'm not saying I can quantify it or make sense of it, but it is what it is. Bama is beatable this year. Not just this week but if we play a lights out game at DWS and they make some mistakes, we can beat them. I just wanted to give some of you the heads up because OM not getting blown out seems to ruin some of yalls weekends judging from social media. You never know though, maybe Sabam has been using the vanilla strategy and holding back. We'll find out Saturday.
 
1

121Josey

Redshirt
Oct 30, 2012
7,503
0
0
I'll be wrong. My eyeballs tell me that Bama put 560 yards on A&M and were easily 2 touchdowns better than they were while playing on the road.

No matter the bulletin board material Wallace might spew, TSUN is nowhere near the offense that A&M is. I'll be surprised if TSUN beats last years spread.
 
W

Wizard.sixpack

Freshman
Sep 15, 2009
6,511
58
48
Have you kept up with Bama at all over the years? They get better as the season goes on. Fortunately for Ole Miss they play them in the early part of the season.
 
J-Dawg

J-Dawg

Junior
Mar 4, 2009
2,217
300
83
If TAMU and Johnny Football with the same offense and a better defense can't do it at home.... Johnny Reb can't do it in T-Town. I'll eat my crow if I'm wrong.
 
57stratdawg

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,408
24,182
113
They have a chance, but it'll require Bo not throwing a pick. That's where they lose the game IMO.

42-21 RTR.
 
F

FreeDawg

Senior
Oct 6, 2010
3,863
643
98
Im not saying OM will win by any stretch nor am I rooting for them. All I'm saying is that there are some troubling numbers indicating that Alabama hasn't played like its normal self. Bama may not be as great as I thought preseason. Could they pull it together Saturday? Sure. But I don't think Va Tech is very good, neither is CSU, and A&M has the worst defense in the SEC. Alabama hasn't been dominant
 
M

Maroonthirteen

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
1,975
0
0
They will give Bama a respectable game

But will come up short. Just like aTm. However, I dont' think OM will move the ball as well as aTm.
 
karlchilders.sixpack

karlchilders.sixpack

All-Conference
Jun 5, 2008
19,924
3,937
113
I'll be surprised with a Bear win

Bama usually grinds a team down,... you just look up at the end, and your *** is beat.

OM does not have the depth in linemen to stay for four quarters.

My 2cents.
 
S

SkullCandy.sixpack

Redshirt
Nov 19, 2012
1,157
0
0
Their secondary will give out first. They actually have some depth on the DL. They have been experimenting with safeties and even a WR at corner. No depth.
 
1msucub

1msucub

Senior
Oct 3, 2004
2,108
634
113
I think they have a pretty good shot; nobody is playing with more confidence than OM, and rightfully so. That heralded class has shown up to play on defense, and their offense can score with anybody. Truth is what it is; Freeze is easy for them to get behind, and he's a very likable guy. Pair that with the talent they've added, and that's what you get. Being on the road and Bama being their version of us vs LSU are the two biggest negatives, of course.
 
U

UIUCDog

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
711
0
0
I’d expect Ole Miss to be competitive, but would be extremely surprised if they won. They lose by 17 or so after being competitive for a half.

I also disagree that we have any sort of reasonable shot to beat Bama. Forget it.
 
H

Hanmudog

Redshirt
Apr 30, 2006
5,853
0
0
This is the same Ole Miss team that barely escaped Vandy (admittedly not your typical Vandy team), played like crap against SEMO, and then had the good fortune to play a horrid Texas team that had just fired their DC and was missing its best two players.

Alabama has some question marks but Ole Miss has just as many.
 
1msucub

1msucub

Senior
Oct 3, 2004
2,108
634
113
You're right on all those points, Hanmu. I'm just really impressed with the new talent they have; Treadwell is a monster, and their defense is really playing well. Bama may run them out of T-Town but this will be the first time in a long time that, if OM wins, I won't be shocked. That may be a better way to word it.
 
H

Hanmudog

Redshirt
Apr 30, 2006
5,853
0
0
I agree about Treadwell. He has got NFL written all over him and I will be shocked if he stays 4 years at Ole Miss.

I think Bama wins by about 14 points which is pretty respectable from an Ole Miss standpoint. The big thing for Ole Miss is to get out of this game without getting Wallace hurt if he runs a lot of those keepers up the middle.
 
D

DerHntr

All-Conference
Sep 18, 2007
15,814
2,727
113
Wallace will need to be mistake free to keep it real close in the second half and that isn't going to happen. I am not a Wallace basher either. He just happens to be the type of QB that Saban dreams about beating.
 
O

Optimus Prime 4

Redshirt
May 1, 2006
8,560
0
0
That's about what I expect. I hope no one gets hurt. I do however find the bulletin board stuff absurd. Bama doesn't care that a QB says his team can score. Bama is Bama, and they'll do what they always do, look average for a while then just wear you down and take control.

though obviously something isn't perfect if Saban is trying new DBs.
 
coach66

coach66

Junior
Mar 5, 2009
12,691
312
83
It will be interesting to see how the Bear defense holds up. I'm pretty much

sold on their offense but I don't think their defense has been tested. If they do well defensively on Saturday then they are setup to have a very good year.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
14,324
4,824
113
Bama is beatable, but not by Ole Miss and certainly not by us.

Ole Miss should be able to keep it respectable, but barring a total meltdown by Bama that includes several turnovers and special team screw ups, they are going to have too much depth for Ole Miss to win.

And to the person that thinks we have a shot? We do not have the OL to compete with Bama. I don't think Dak will bring enough improvement to the offense to allow us to run on Bama. We'd have to have Russell come in and light up their secondary with quick passes for MSU to move the ball. Unfortunately, I think our OL is weak enough that we just don't have a very realistic shot of pulling an upset this year unless you consider Arky or UM an upset.
 
J

J. Noble Daggett

Redshirt
May 7, 2013
60
0
0
We're going to give them all six inches

and come up short late in the game. We cover but don't come close to winning. Any bear fan that says we have a good shot at beating Bama in T-Town is a troll or just delusional.
 
R

Rezpup

Redshirt
May 4, 2009
591
0
0
FreeDawg said:
But Ole Miss has a decent shot this Saturday. Better than ours last year. Is it because they have arrived? I'm sure that's what Rebel fans will tell you but this just isn't the same Bama team it has been. I did some research on this game. I found some wild numbers.

-Total offense Bama is 13th in the SEC 370.7 ypg
-They are last in SEC rushing offense 132 ypg
-In passing D they are 11th 250.3 ypg
-In total D the 9th at 373 ypg
-Opponent RZ conversions 9th
-Sacks allowed 9th (I think this drops all year long fwiw)
-They are 3rd worst in the SEC in opponents long plays from scrimmage
-4th in allowing oppenents 1rst downs

I'm sure some of the sunshine pumpers will come in and tell me this is all Texas A&M skewing the statistics. A&M didn't help their stats but you're wrong. I went back to 2008 looking at their defenses numbers even vs top offensive opponents and this year there is a dip. I'm not saying I can quantify it or make sense of it, but it is what it is. Bama is beatable this year. Not just this week but if we play a lights out game at DWS and they make some mistakes, we can beat them. I just wanted to give some of you the heads up because OM not getting blown out seems to ruin some of yalls weekends judging from social media. You never know though, maybe Sabam has been using the vanilla strategy and holding back. We'll find out Saturday.
Click to expand...

It's sunshine pumping to say Manziel is skewing their stats? Of course he is skewing Bama's defensive stats. As is Saban having his team not run up the score on his coaching buddy last week.

I see Bama's offense exposing UM's defense this week which has given up its share of points. Also, it's easier to defend the pass for if your Bama since you're playing against a qb whose arm won't let him throw it deep.
i have no problem being objective when I think UM is good but I think this team is a mirage. Freeze has done a very good job to get this mediocre team to 3-0.
ETA- this will be a blowout.
 
aTotal360

aTotal360

Heisman
Nov 12, 2009
21,748
14,399
113
Vegas creates lines based on what they think will get action, not on what they think the outcome will be. And no, they are not the same thing.
 
F

FreeDawg

Senior
Oct 6, 2010
3,863
643
98
Last time they came to Starkville it was a fairly close game. We're better than that now and they're worse. Probably not my best argument but I think it stands. "A shot" is much different than "I think we win" fwiw
 
O

OzarkaNSW

Redshirt
Jul 12, 2010
763
0
0
UM gave up 35 to Vandy with one offensive player, and 23 to Baby McCoy

No chance here.


FreeDawg said:
But Ole Miss has a decent shot this Saturday. Better than ours last year. Is it because they have arrived? I'm sure that's what Rebel fans will tell you but this just isn't the same Bama team it has been. I did some research on this game. I found some wild numbers.

-Total offense Bama is 13th in the SEC 370.7 ypg
-They are last in SEC rushing offense 132 ypg
-In passing D they are 11th 250.3 ypg
-In total D the 9th at 373 ypg
-Opponent RZ conversions 9th
-Sacks allowed 9th (I think this drops all year long fwiw)
-They are 3rd worst in the SEC in opponents long plays from scrimmage
-4th in allowing oppenents 1rst downs

I'm sure some of the sunshine pumpers will come in and tell me this is all Texas A&M skewing the statistics. A&M didn't help their stats but you're wrong. I went back to 2008 looking at their defenses numbers even vs top offensive opponents and this year there is a dip. I'm not saying I can quantify it or make sense of it, but it is what it is. Bama is beatable this year. Not just this week but if we play a lights out game at DWS and they make some mistakes, we can beat them. I just wanted to give some of you the heads up because OM not getting blown out seems to ruin some of yalls weekends judging from social media. You never know though, maybe Sabam has been using the vanilla strategy and holding back. We'll find out Saturday.
Click to expand...
 
C

ColonelJohnSartoris

Redshirt
Jun 4, 2007
304
0
0
Rezpup said:
It's sunshine pumping to say Manziel is skewing their stats? Of course he is skewing Bama's defensive stats. As is Saban having his team not run up the score on his coaching buddy last week.

I see Bama's offense exposing UM's defense this week which has given up its share of points. Also, it's easier to defend the pass for if your Bama since you're playing against a qb whose arm won't let him throw it deep.
i have no problem being objective when I think UM is good but I think this team is a mirage. Freeze has done a very good job to get this mediocre team to 3-0.
ETA- this will be a blowout.
Click to expand...


Just so we know what the party line is, please confirm:

2012: OM's offense is just Hail Marys to Moncrief from Wallace.
2013: OM's offense is just short dump passes. Wallace can't throw it deep.

Thanks
 
F

FreeDawg

Senior
Oct 6, 2010
3,863
643
98
Rezpup, the defensive statistics aren't the only ones that are troubling. How in the world do they have the worst offensive rushing attack in the SEC right now? 1 A&M game doesn't skew you from #1 (where they've been every year since '08) to #9 or bottom half of the league.

Talent is and will never be an issue under Saban. They have landed the composite #1 recruiting class 3 of the last 4 years. The best 4-year composite average in the SEC by over 7 spots. The one and only thing that will ever slow Bama down is chemistry issues. They lost a bunch of elite, veteran guys last year. They have been replaced with guys of equal playing talent but perhaps not the leadership aspect. That's my theory at least: Bama has a leadership/chemistry issue that is causing them to under-perform this year. That said, I'm not getting carried away with that. They're still 3-0 with a monster road win. They just don't seem like the same Bama right now.
 
T

Toby Nash

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
216
0
0
It's pretty much the same thing. They don't just create lines to get action. They create them to generate even action on both sides. They try to predict the scores as accurately as possible. They aren't always right, and early season college football lines seem to vary the most.

They do move the lines afterwards based on action placed.
 
R

Rezpup

Redshirt
May 4, 2009
591
0
0
ColonelJohnSartoris said:
Just so we know what the party line is, please confirm:

2012: OM's offense is just Hail Marys to Moncrief from Wallace.
2013: OM's offense is just short dump passes. Wallace can't throw it deep.

Thanks
Click to expand...

I will confirm to you that there is no party line. It's my opinion and there will be an opportunity for your offense to change my opinion if they can. There are places you can go if you want to only hear ole miss rah rah.
 
R

Rezpup

Redshirt
May 4, 2009
591
0
0
FreeDawg said:
Rezpup, the defensive statistics aren't the only ones that are troubling. How in the world do they have the worst offensive rushing attack in the SEC right now? 1 A&M game doesn't skew you from #1 (where they've been every year since '08) to #9 or bottom half of the league.

Talent is and will never be an issue under Saban. They have landed the composite #1 recruiting class 3 of the last 4 years. The best 4-year composite average in the SEC by over 7 spots. The one and only thing that will ever slow Bama down is chemistry issues. They lost a bunch of elite, veteran guys last year. They have been replaced with guys of equal playing talent but perhaps not the leadership aspect. That's my theory at least: Bama has a leadership/chemistry issue that is causing them to under-perform this year. That said, I'm not getting carried away with that. They're still 3-0 with a monster road win. They just don't seem like the same Bama right now.
Click to expand...

Regarding Bama's offense I think yardage stats can be very misleading especially when you consider how many points they're scoring. The thing about them is they seem to play down or up to their competition so it depends on how well they regard this rebel team. I think ole miss has played well enough to force Alabama to take this game serously, which they didn't last year and still pulled away for a wide margin of victory. I think ole miss is about to see a motivated Bama team Saturday. If they do well in that environment then my opinion of them will change.
 
Last edited:
D

DerHntr

All-Conference
Sep 18, 2007
15,814
2,727
113
FreeDawg said:
Rezpup, the defensive statistics aren't the only ones that are troubling. How in the world do they have the worst offensive rushing attack in the SEC right now? 1 A&M game doesn't skew you from #1 (where they've been every year since '08) to #9 or bottom half of the league.

Talent is and will never be an issue under Saban. They have landed the composite #1 recruiting class 3 of the last 4 years. The best 4-year composite average in the SEC by over 7 spots. The one and only thing that will ever slow Bama down is chemistry issues. They lost a bunch of elite, veteran guys last year. They have been replaced with guys of equal playing talent but perhaps not the leadership aspect. That's my theory at least: Bama has a leadership/chemistry issue that is causing them to under-perform this year. That said, I'm not getting carried away with that. They're still 3-0 with a monster road win. They just don't seem like the same Bama right now.
Click to expand...

The early part of the season does have an effect on your rankings. Add in TAMU in their early schedule and it skews it more.
 
R

RocketDawg

All-Conference
Oct 21, 2011
18,974
2,081
113
Agree. Bulletin board for Bama isn't what Wallace said; it's more like one of our stupid fans defacing their statue last year.
 
H

Heawww

Redshirt
Jun 15, 2013
912
0
0
No, they don't. They are going to get rolled. Alabama had their down week last week and they aren't overlooking the confederates. It will be a blowout.
 
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