Haven't seen this posted - Financial news

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HailStout

Heisman
Jan 4, 2020
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I hope Trump is incredibly successful as I hope every president is. I am very tired however of every time ANYONE doesn’t do everything exactly the way he wants it to be done it has to be because they hate Trump. Can’t be because people see things differently and maybe know about the area they have spent their whole career specializing in better than him.

The man is president of the United States and the republicans control the house and senate. It’s like bama fans complaining about the current setup in football not being fair during the Saban days.
 

retire the banner

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Dec 29, 2022
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S&P is up .77% YTD. Russell 2000 is down 6.5%. All it would take is a slight overweighting of small cap stocks (which historically has been a winning formula) to be down year to date. I think if you take out my contributions from this year, I'm probably down about $20k in retirement accounts without much of an overweight of the russell 2000 indexes.
1. “If you take out my contributions from this year” … why would you view it like that?
2. You aren’t down $20k in retirement accounts YTD
3. You need to fire whoever is handling your finances
 

paindonthurt

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Apr 7, 2025
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I haven't been nervous about the tariffs.

If you read the textbooks, they'll tell you tariffs are bad overall. And all things being equal, maybe they are. It depends on your viewpoint to really answer that.

But all things aren't equal. For example, we are 16% of Canada's economy and they are 1% of ours. They need us a lot more than we need them.

All countries want to be a consumer economy. We are right now, but we won't be forever. We are the economic power, so even though some of these countries didn't want to play ball, they felt they had to.

I was at wife's grandmothers home over Thanksgiving. My brother in law and his son were talking about how bad tariffs are and I sat there in silence because my wife had told me to start anything. While I was sitting there though I was reading an article about how Mexico was breaking up 2 migrant caravans for the first time in many years - all due to the threat of tariffs.
Using tariffs as leverage is great. But long term tariffs raise prices.

my caution was can we handle the short term dip.

having another 4 years of similar policy after this term is very important.

we can’t win again if the economy is bad.
 

paindonthurt

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Not a Trump guy either. But what he understands about foreign policy is there are some nations that will just take advantage of the USA repeatedly if you let them & appeasing them just makes it worse. You have to show strength & stand up to them.
100% agree with this.
 

paindonthurt

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S&P is up .77% YTD. Russell 2000 is down 6.5%. All it would take is a slight overweighting of small cap stocks (which historically has been a winning formula) to be down year to date. I think if you take out my contributions from this year, I'm probably down about $20k in retirement accounts without much of an overweight of the russell 2000 indexes.
So you been buying on the cheap right? Let’s see how that turns out for you in 12 to 18 months.
 

paindonthurt

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I hope Trump is incredibly successful as I hope every president is. I am very tired however of every time ANYONE doesn’t do everything exactly the way he wants it to be done it has to be because they hate Trump. Can’t be because people see things differently and maybe know about the area they have spent their whole career specializing in better than him.

The man is president of the United States and the republicans control the house and senate. It’s like bama fans complaining about the current setup in football not being fair during the Saban days.
I mean he’s not wrong.

the media has $h1t on him since 2014 and they are extremely hypocritical about things they crap on him about.

examples?

building a wall
Kids on cages
Immigration
China
Tariffs
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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1. “If you take out my contributions from this year” … why would you view it like that?
In the context of the discussion, it seemed like people were worried about returns. Also, if you don't ignore contributions, what you are doing in your portfolio is going to be highly reflective of your contribution amount compared to the size of the portfolio. If you're a 25 year old with $40k in your 401k and you manage to put $20k in, the stock market can drop 10% and you're still likely going to end up ~$15k depending on when the drop is, which feels pretty good when you're starting at $40k. If you're a 45 year old putting $20k into a million dollar portfolio, you're going to end up down approximately $80k, which doesn't feel great.

2. You aren’t down $20k in retirement accounts YTD
Ok? My return on my invested assets has been slightly negative. Whether you want to call that being "down" doesn't really matter to me. How about, if my return on my invested assets had been 0%, I'd have about $20k more in my retirement accounts than what I actually have.

3. You need to fire whoever is handling your finances
I'd like to. He's a dumbass and he pisses me off sometimes. But he doesn't charge me anything and it'd be awkward taking a **** with him or looking in the mirror at him in the morning if I fired him.
 

johnson86-1

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So you been buying on the cheap right? Let’s see how that turns out for you in 12 to 18 months.
401k contributions stay the same, but for better or worse, I'm old enough that my contributions are no longer a big percentage compared to the portfolio, so looking at it that way isn't quite as comforting as it used to be.

I have actually done pretty well in my after tax account. Not through any investment savvy on my part. Just happened to have some extra money to invest after it had dropped some.
 

mstateglfr

All-American
Feb 24, 2008
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My 401K is up 6% YTD. Not sure why you're having issues.
Are you happy with being up 6%? CDs are at 4.5%...you are barely doing better than a CD.
This seems like you are almost bragging over being up 6%.

I just looked at my YTD-
I have 90% managed and 10% unmanaged. The unmanaged is 75% CDs and 25% 'Fidelity Crypto'. I am up 5.8% overall...and that is in part due to me adding money to the account.
I am up 4.5% overall if you exclude the money I have added YTD.


I mean...I could just keep it all in CDs and get that return.
My return is outpacing inflation though, so I guess I should be happy and grateful?
 
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johnson86-1

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Are you happy with being up 6%? CDs are at 4.5%...you are barely doing better than a CD.
This seems like you are almost bragging over being up 6%.

I just looked at my YTD-
I have 90% managed and 10% unmanaged. The unmanaged is 75% CDs and 25% 'Fidelity Crypto'. I am up 5.8% overall...and that is in part due to me adding money to the account.
I am up 4.5% overall if you exclude the money I have added YTD.


I mean...I could just keep it all in CDs and get that return.
My return is outpacing inflation though, so I guess I should be happy and grateful?
CDs aren't at 4.5% YTD. That's their APR. If you are up 4.5% YTD excluding new contributions, you should definitely be excited about that. If you could get 4% higher than the S&P 500 consistently, you would end up filthy rich with any reasonable contribution rate.
 

She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
12,473
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Y'all sure are spending a lot of time on how your investments have done over a short time period. That's not particularly indicative of much of anything, but carry on.

I hope the administration is extremely successful, because the country needs them to be. But if Congress can't be convinced that spending has to be the #1 priority and it has to be reduced, I don't think much else matters long term. We're going to suffer.
 

HailStout

Heisman
Jan 4, 2020
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I mean he’s not wrong.

the media has $h1t on him since 2014 and they are extremely hypocritical about things they crap on him about.

examples?

building a wall
Kids on cages
Immigration
China
Tariffs

I’m talking about whenever a judge or someone else doesn’t go along with him and he immediately says it’s because they hate him personally. I don’t want a government where he everyone just bends the knee to the president, even if I agree with the guy 100%. Checks and balances are important.

I also get he knows exactly what he is doing and half the stuff he says is just to help grease the wheels and get his agenda done: I’m just very naive and want the government to work the way it is supposed to.
 

paindonthurt

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401k contributions stay the same, but for better or worse, I'm old enough that my contributions are no longer a big percentage compared to the portfolio, so looking at it that way isn't quite as comforting as it used to be.

I have actually done pretty well in my after tax account. Not through any investment savvy on my part. Just happened to have some extra money to invest after it had dropped some.
If you are old enough that buying on the cheap isn’t gonna help you that much you probably need to be in something different.

either way if you hang tight, you are likely to be better off in 4 years. A lot better off.
 
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paindonthurt

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I’m talking about whenever a judge or someone else doesn’t go along with him and he immediately says it’s because they hate him personally. I don’t want a government where he everyone just bends the knee to the president, even if I agree with the guy 100%. Checks and balances are important.

I also get he knows exactly what he is doing and half the stuff he says is just to help grease the wheels and get his agenda done: I’m just very naive and want the government to work the way it is supposed to.
Understand now

but I’ve learned to not really listen to what trump says on the fly vs his overall strategy and what he actually does.
 
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jethreauxdawg

Heisman
Dec 20, 2010
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Are you happy with being up 6%? CDs are at 4.5%...you are barely doing better than a CD.
This seems like you are almost bragging over being up 6%.

I just looked at my YTD-
I have 90% managed and 10% unmanaged. The unmanaged is 75% CDs and 25% 'Fidelity Crypto'. I am up 5.8% overall...and that is in part due to me adding money to the account.
I am up 4.5% overall if you exclude the money I have added YTD.


I mean...I could just keep it all in CDs and get that return.
My return is outpacing inflation though, so I guess I should be happy and grateful?
Or switch to better options.
 

mstateglfr

All-American
Feb 24, 2008
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CDs aren't at 4.5% YTD. That's their APR. If you are up 4.5% YTD excluding new contributions, you should definitely be excited about that. If you could get 4% higher than the S&P 500 consistently, you would end up filthy rich with any reasonable contribution rate.
I get the concept of ytd and apr being different. I didn't express clearly that being up 4.5% in 5mo doesn't equate to up 10% for the year.
It's a snapshot in time.
If we did this 6 weeks ago, I would be down 8.43% ytd. That wouldn't equate to being down 42% for the year.
Again, just a snapshot.

For CDs it is safe to know what you will end at. For everything else though, I assumed 0% growth for the rest of the year. I can point to why it will be higher and point to why it will be lower.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Is this still Bidens economy?
It's a buffet and Biden is only responsible for the wilted lettuce and clumpy mac&cheese. The fresh tots and chicken fingers are Trump...unless they are still frozen in the middle, which then they are also Biden's.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!
 
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GloryDawg

Heisman
Mar 3, 2005
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I can really see the cost drop at the grocery's stores. That's huge to me. The things I need on a daily basis is getting cheaper. Also the bags of chips are getting filled up. The cereal box is coming with more cereal. Now we need the double stuff Oreos to become double stuffed again.
 
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Sep 8, 2008
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Are you happy with being up 6%? CDs are at 4.5%...you are barely doing better than a CD.
This seems like you are almost bragging over being up 6%.

I just looked at my YTD-
I have 90% managed and 10% unmanaged. The unmanaged is 75% CDs and 25% 'Fidelity Crypto'. I am up 5.8% overall...and that is in part due to me adding money to the account.
I am up 4.5% overall if you exclude the money I have added YTD.


I mean...I could just keep it all in CDs and get that return.
My return is outpacing inflation though, so I guess I should be happy and grateful?
You should be happy and grateful your clowns aren't running everything into the ground anymore.
 

Old Dawg

Sophomore
Jan 7, 2020
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My 401K and Roth says otherwise.
Along with the hundreds of thousands of unemployed Federal workers now.
Farmers losing their farms.
Yeah, great news.
Were you living when Billy Clinton reduced fed employment? Lots of employees let go. Stock market has regained all it lost. Farmers were losing farms last year as well. No such thing as perfect economy. But to your post all this is GREAT news.
 

GloryDawg

Heisman
Mar 3, 2005
19,379
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Using tariffs as leverage is great. But long term tariffs raise prices.

my caution was can we handle the short term dip.

having another 4 years of similar policy after this term is very important.

we can’t win again if the economy is bad.
Here how I see it, is Low energy prices will offset a lot of the cost of tariff. F150 are assembled in Michigan but the parts are made in Mexico and China. Those parts will cost more but the cost of shipping the parts to Michigan will be lower, the cost of assembling the truck will be lower and the shipping of the truck to the dealerships will be lower. Everyone can hate on Trump, but he is not stupid. He studies everything. He knows what's going on. He gets people around him that know more and he does listen to them. The tariff will not hurt the consumer like the left media keeps saying but it will bring in more revenue for the government. Inflation is down and cost of goods at the store are coming down because the high cost of energy is coming down. Just my opinion.
 

was21

Senior
May 29, 2007
9,937
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This morning, the CPI came in with a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, which puts the 12 month inflation rate at 2.3%, which is the lowest since February 2021.

Also, Personal income increased 0.8% in April, which is almost triple the expectations.

Lastly, the trade deficit was cut by 46% to $87.6 billion from $162.3 billion.

Good economic news!
Must be Faux News
 

Pilgrimdawg

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Aug 30, 2018
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I spent almost 45 years in U.S. manufacturing sales and could write you guys a book on the times Companies in China and Vietnam copied our designs, sold under our part numbers, and even pretended to be our company in the marketplace. Something had to be done and finally we have a leader with enough balls to actually do something about it. If you weren’t in manufacturing I doubt If you can imagine how evil and corrupt they really are. I know the tariff negotiations create a lot of confusion and uncertainty but something had to be done. They are stealing and misrepresenting at every turn. I know Trump is the proverbial bull in a China shop (play on words) but I don’t know of anyone else that might have a chance to fix this. Have some patience and let it play out. You have to recognize that a lot of the day to day head scratching comments are nothing more than a means of sending a message to those being negotiated with or an effort to make them feel uncertain or uncomfortable about their position. I 100 percent applaud the effort to try and fix this mess.
 

L4Dawg

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Oct 27, 2016
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It’s way too early to tell how Trump’s policies will shake out economically. What we have now is left over from Biden. Get back to me in a couple of years.
 
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paindonthurt

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Apr 7, 2025
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Here how I see it, is Low energy prices will offset a lot of the cost of tariff. F150 are assembled in Michigan but the parts are made in Mexico and China. Those parts will cost more but the cost of shipping the parts to Michigan will be lower, the cost of assembling the truck will be lower and the shipping of the truck to the dealerships will be lower. Everyone can hate on Trump, but he is not stupid. He studies everything. He knows what's going on. He gets people around him that know more and he does listen to them. The tariff will not hurt the consumer like the left media keeps saying but it will bring in more revenue for the government. Inflation is down and cost of goods at the store are coming down because the high cost of energy is coming down. Just my opinion.
You can have both. No tariffs and low fuel cost.

But for national security and to stop people from screwing us im willing to pay a little more until it works.
 

RBDog82

Redshirt
Sep 14, 2008
246
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S&P is up .77% YTD. Russell 2000 is down 6.5%. All it would take is a slight overweighting of small cap stocks (which historically has been a winning formula) to be down year to date. I think if you take out my contributions from this year, I'm probably down about $20k in retirement accounts without much of an overweight of the russell 2000 indexes.
This 100%, unless SPSers are a bunch of Ken Griffins.
 
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