Here are our possible landing spots:
UNC, Clemson, Florida State in the ACC
Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA out West
Coastal Carolina, USM in the mid-major
Here are the non-hosting SEC likely teams in the field
Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida (2 seeds)
Mississippi State, Kentucky (3 seeds)
First, Hattiesburg is just as likely to attract Alabama or Florida as they are Mississippi State, but USM is definitely a possible landing spot. You could put an ACC team as the 2 seed (Georgia Tech) and put us in Hattiesburg, or you could put Alabama as the 2 and plug in one of the stronger Southern mid-majors as a 3.
Here are the non-SEC and non-ACC 2 seeds if we end up being sent to one of the three ACC sites:
TCU
Dallas Baptist
UC Irvine
Northeastern
Kansas
UTSA
Arizona
West Virginia
Cal Poly
Geography wise, Kansas to Arkansas, UTSA, Dallas Baptist or TCU to Texas, West Virginia to Tennessee all make sense. Northeastern is the 2 seed that fits no where, so they could literally be at any of the 16 hosts.
If we go out West, Cal Poly and Irvine are likely to be sent to one of the three West Coast hosts, and possibly Arizona as well. Oklahoma and Mississippi State as 3-seeds in one of these regionals makes sense.
The S-curve has us as the second best 3 seed, which in a perfect storm would match us up with the second worst 2 seed (which is Duke). Is there a place where it makes sense to send Duke as a 2 seed with a strong 3? Coastal Carolina fits this arrangement. The committee is unlikely to do this, but it is a good fit.
The wildcard in all this is if the committee puts us as a weak 2 instead of a strong 3. I'm not completely sold on this committee making Northeastern a 2 seed and Cal Poly might be a 3 as well.
What I am cheering for: I still think UCLA is the weakest host. They are 15th in the RPI and the Big Ten outside of Oregon is pretty terrible. Sure, it would be hard for our fans to get there, but we aren't talking about a place that is intimidating for road teams. The problem is that UC Irvine might be the best 2 seed no one is talking about , and they are pretty likely to be at UCLA. Oregon and Oregon State have solid teams and would be tougher to win at than UCLA.
As far as the ACC schools, North Carolina pitching terrifies me. Clemson would be a tough place to play. Florida State's Cracker Jack ball park is always interesting. You get bats hot like we were the last three weeks of the season and you can crank some balls out of there in a hurry.
The mid major hosts are both solid teams. We know what we are getting with USM and they will be crazy if we go there. Did you know that Coastal is 2-4 when hosting regionals? They have hosted six times and have only won two of those regionals. In those two regional wins, they have one win against a major program. All-time, Coastal is 8-28 against Power 4 teams in the regional round.
UNC, Clemson, Florida State in the ACC
Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA out West
Coastal Carolina, USM in the mid-major
Here are the non-hosting SEC likely teams in the field
Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida (2 seeds)
Mississippi State, Kentucky (3 seeds)
First, Hattiesburg is just as likely to attract Alabama or Florida as they are Mississippi State, but USM is definitely a possible landing spot. You could put an ACC team as the 2 seed (Georgia Tech) and put us in Hattiesburg, or you could put Alabama as the 2 and plug in one of the stronger Southern mid-majors as a 3.
Here are the non-SEC and non-ACC 2 seeds if we end up being sent to one of the three ACC sites:
TCU
Dallas Baptist
UC Irvine
Northeastern
Kansas
UTSA
Arizona
West Virginia
Cal Poly
Geography wise, Kansas to Arkansas, UTSA, Dallas Baptist or TCU to Texas, West Virginia to Tennessee all make sense. Northeastern is the 2 seed that fits no where, so they could literally be at any of the 16 hosts.
If we go out West, Cal Poly and Irvine are likely to be sent to one of the three West Coast hosts, and possibly Arizona as well. Oklahoma and Mississippi State as 3-seeds in one of these regionals makes sense.
The S-curve has us as the second best 3 seed, which in a perfect storm would match us up with the second worst 2 seed (which is Duke). Is there a place where it makes sense to send Duke as a 2 seed with a strong 3? Coastal Carolina fits this arrangement. The committee is unlikely to do this, but it is a good fit.
The wildcard in all this is if the committee puts us as a weak 2 instead of a strong 3. I'm not completely sold on this committee making Northeastern a 2 seed and Cal Poly might be a 3 as well.
What I am cheering for: I still think UCLA is the weakest host. They are 15th in the RPI and the Big Ten outside of Oregon is pretty terrible. Sure, it would be hard for our fans to get there, but we aren't talking about a place that is intimidating for road teams. The problem is that UC Irvine might be the best 2 seed no one is talking about , and they are pretty likely to be at UCLA. Oregon and Oregon State have solid teams and would be tougher to win at than UCLA.
As far as the ACC schools, North Carolina pitching terrifies me. Clemson would be a tough place to play. Florida State's Cracker Jack ball park is always interesting. You get bats hot like we were the last three weeks of the season and you can crank some balls out of there in a hurry.
The mid major hosts are both solid teams. We know what we are getting with USM and they will be crazy if we go there. Did you know that Coastal is 2-4 when hosting regionals? They have hosted six times and have only won two of those regionals. In those two regional wins, they have one win against a major program. All-time, Coastal is 8-28 against Power 4 teams in the regional round.
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