ive argued multiple statistics, ypg (worse), ppg allowed (worse), ypp (worse), 3rd down conversion rate (worse). the defenses in this league are exceptionally poor comparative to normal years...look at lsu, georgia, atm, and a myriad of other teams. thats what its like when you have multiple first rounders or high draft picks. the sec didnt just wake up and start to become an offensive league overnight. its a perfect storm of qb's that have matured coupled with defenses that have been decimated by the nfl draft. its no coincidence that the low differential teams are some of the traditional powers with the exception of kentucky.
ole miss: 10
auburn: 9
tennessee: 8
bama: 7
uk: 7
arky:7
mizzu:6
msu: 6
vandy:6
usc:5
lsu: 5
florida:5
aTm: 4
georgia: 3
data from phil steele:
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2013/JAN13/DBJan21.html
and those are optimistic preseason projections...others i have seen were lsu returning 4, florida returning 3, and some others, all that to say, these are conservative estimates that move against points a point i am trying to make, and its STILL a huge amount of players for the upper crust of the league to replace.
thats an average of 6.28 starters returning....normally, its well over that.
its no coincidence that sec is largely considered an offinsive power all of the sudden...its better teams with very young and inexperienced defenses. all that to say, its not that the offenses flipped some switch and we are now an offensive league, things will return to sec defensive dominance as the better teams move from finding 8, 7, and 6 brand-new starters, instead of the 4 or 5 they traditionally replace. simple as that.
so, with offensive power debunked, lets look back at defense and where we stand against the nation and our sec brethren. i just demonstrated WHY being in the middle of the sec defense pack is NOT a good thing. normally, being in the middle of the pack means you have a defense in the mid 30's....now, it means you have a defense that ranks 77th. SEVENTY SEVENTH!!!!!!!!
the defense went from 36th to 77th
Data from here:
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-points-per-game?date=2013-01-07
and here:
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-points-per-game
you are fooling yourself if you wish to compare yourself to a league totally rebuilding. essentially, you are taking all the top teams (ones i bolded above) and placing them in the bottom half of the league while allowing other teams to surpass us. YES, we are in a very similar position, but its not because we are equal or close, its because traditional powers are replacing well over half their defensive squads and its CONSIDERABLY well over half the defensive squad for those teams, not just a player. now, i concede that there is some improved qb play where manziel, murray, mett and a few others have taken advantage of these weak and crippled defenses, but defenses are largely down because of huge defensive losses by traditional powers in replacing the defensive starters ravished by the nfl.
bottom line, you can fool yourself in saying "we arent much worse...just look at where we stack up with our fellow sec teams" or you can realize we are giving up over 5 ppg more, almost 6 ppg, than we were last year which has caused us to tumble in the overall rankings from 36th to 77th amongst our ncaa peers. its only going to get worse too...i wouldnt be shocked if we ended up in the low 80's by seasons end. what will the excuses be by years end? if we ended dead last, would anyone concede that i might have a point? im not holding my breath. we seem to prefer the head-in-sand method.