At home sick with nothing to do but watch replays of football games. With all the other armchair coaches and coordinators out there, why not me?
I had several concerns heading into this game after reading stories and stat lines from previous games. But after watching several Auburn games, my thoughts changed. Most notably, I watched every snap of the LSU game last week. That game was much closer than the score indicated just as our game with LSU wasn't nearly as close as the scoreboard showed. Here are a few of my takeaways and observations in advance of our game:
Nick Marshall is good but not great. He got away with several boneheaded throws and was incredibly inconsistent. But he also threw some good ones in the flats. He's a great runner and has two very good receivers. Bottom line: I don't think this game will be as high-scoring as I previously thought. He will have to score on long drives, which will help us. He may hit a few big plays but most of those should be offset by our ability to capitalize on his miscues.
Auburn's offensive line looks average SEC at best. They had trouble running the ball, especially early, against LSU. Anyone remember how we gashed LSU's defense in the run game? They were successful at times but deep into the game they were unable to establish the running game or win the line of scrimmage.
Auburn's run defense looked questionable against LSU. In reading preview stories for this game, I saw a lot about how much they had improved in this area. But I didn't see that at all when I watched the game. LSU had nearly 100 yards on the ground in the first quarter alone. In all but one of their first down plays in the first half, they ran for more than 5 yards. Several times they had 8 and 9 yard runs on first down. The problem: their passing game was atrocious. The true freshman QB was riddled with some penalties, bad snaps, miscommunication, etc. But they seemed to run the ball with ease. When they finally got their first first-down and had a drive, they hit play action for a long pass play and scored a play later on the ground. The end-of-game stats don't show it because LSU abandoned the run early after failing to convert first downs and sustaining drives. Bottom line: we should be able to run the ball against them. While everyone is talking about Dak, I think this may be another opportunity for Josh Robinson and company to have a huge day and keep their offense off the field. That run will then open us up for some big plays in the passing game. I think a heavy dose of Dak running, just like last year, is possible too. But they will be more focused on stopping him than Robinson.
We need a strong pass rush ... but we have to get Marshall to the ground. I was surprised to see the push LSU got. They had a sack or two but there were several times they had him on the run and he made big plays with his legs and ability to escape pressure and improvise. But LSU's front seven also missed a ton of tackles. We can't afford to miss tackles or over pursue.
Last key: Dak doesn't need to force things. We don't need him to be dominate to win. We just need him to play within himself. A conservative Dak would be just fine with me. They will put pressure on him; he just needs to make good decisions.
I'm not confident enough to say we win this one going away, but I "think there's a chance."
I had several concerns heading into this game after reading stories and stat lines from previous games. But after watching several Auburn games, my thoughts changed. Most notably, I watched every snap of the LSU game last week. That game was much closer than the score indicated just as our game with LSU wasn't nearly as close as the scoreboard showed. Here are a few of my takeaways and observations in advance of our game:
Nick Marshall is good but not great. He got away with several boneheaded throws and was incredibly inconsistent. But he also threw some good ones in the flats. He's a great runner and has two very good receivers. Bottom line: I don't think this game will be as high-scoring as I previously thought. He will have to score on long drives, which will help us. He may hit a few big plays but most of those should be offset by our ability to capitalize on his miscues.
Auburn's offensive line looks average SEC at best. They had trouble running the ball, especially early, against LSU. Anyone remember how we gashed LSU's defense in the run game? They were successful at times but deep into the game they were unable to establish the running game or win the line of scrimmage.
Auburn's run defense looked questionable against LSU. In reading preview stories for this game, I saw a lot about how much they had improved in this area. But I didn't see that at all when I watched the game. LSU had nearly 100 yards on the ground in the first quarter alone. In all but one of their first down plays in the first half, they ran for more than 5 yards. Several times they had 8 and 9 yard runs on first down. The problem: their passing game was atrocious. The true freshman QB was riddled with some penalties, bad snaps, miscommunication, etc. But they seemed to run the ball with ease. When they finally got their first first-down and had a drive, they hit play action for a long pass play and scored a play later on the ground. The end-of-game stats don't show it because LSU abandoned the run early after failing to convert first downs and sustaining drives. Bottom line: we should be able to run the ball against them. While everyone is talking about Dak, I think this may be another opportunity for Josh Robinson and company to have a huge day and keep their offense off the field. That run will then open us up for some big plays in the passing game. I think a heavy dose of Dak running, just like last year, is possible too. But they will be more focused on stopping him than Robinson.
We need a strong pass rush ... but we have to get Marshall to the ground. I was surprised to see the push LSU got. They had a sack or two but there were several times they had him on the run and he made big plays with his legs and ability to escape pressure and improvise. But LSU's front seven also missed a ton of tackles. We can't afford to miss tackles or over pursue.
Last key: Dak doesn't need to force things. We don't need him to be dominate to win. We just need him to play within himself. A conservative Dak would be just fine with me. They will put pressure on him; he just needs to make good decisions.
I'm not confident enough to say we win this one going away, but I "think there's a chance."
