Hosting Analysis - Comparing State, UM, USCe, and Ark

[bulldogcountry1]

One week to go in the regular season, and 4 SEC teams are battling for 1 (maybe 2) regional host spots. If you look at RPI, then we it's a dead heat with us and USCe. If you look at rankings and conference records, you have to think Ark is right in there. If UM has a good weekend, they can't be ignored.

We've been talking about our ridiculous conference schedule for a long time, and I have been waiting for things to unfold so I could break it down into hard statistics. Below, we will look at these 4 teams and evaluate their SEC opponents' winning %, as well as look at common opponents of State with the other 3 teams.

SEC opponent winning %:

State - 0.566
UM - 0.534
USCe - 0.496
Ark - 0.466

Common opponents only with State:

State: 12-9
UM: 9-12

State: 8-10
USCe: 8-9

State: 11-7
Ark: 11-7


What I take from this:

-This makes it even more evident that we got hosed with our schedule, as did UM. You may argue that it helped our RPI in the end, but I'm not buying that unless the committee proves that RPI matters that much more than conference record.

-Unless Ark sweeps, there's no way they should leap frog everyone else. Even if they do, it's still iffy

-UM rolls into Baton Rogue this weekend, and I just don't see then taking more than 1.

-None of this matters to us if we don't win this weekend. Playing USCe the last weekend makes it easier for the selection committee. The winner of the series gets a host site. Losing the UM series will always hurt, but it really didn't do as much damage as I feared.

 

[615dawg]

I know what you are saying

and I agree, but there are a couple more scenarios that you have to look at.

We'll start with Arkansas. If Arkansas finishes third in the SEC, they will host. If they finish fourth, all bets are off. The only way they don't finish third if if South Carolina passes them, and they swept South Carolina, so even that is debatable. Add in the fact that the Big 12 really doesn't have a team that can host (maybe Kansas State), and you need a host in the Central part of the country. Arkansas could likely end up 19-10 in the SEC. That deserves a host every time.

We can talk about State and South Carolina in the same paragraph, because they are essentially the same team (virtually same record, MSU is 10th in RPI, USC is 11th), and they play each other this weekend. I think the series winner, especially if its South Carolina and they finish fourth, will grab a host. If State wins 2 of 3, then State is the 5 seed and South Carolina is the 4. You can make the argument for both to host.

Ole Miss is an interesting story. They need to win the series at LSU and have South Carolina win the series, or even sweep at State, and they probably need some help outside the SEC in the form of South Alabama. USA is sitting with an RPI of 14 with a series against Troy this weekend. A sweep of Troy would probably be good enough to get them to the top 12, and the MSU/USC loser will drop out of the Top 12, and ..

In the past 12 years, no team that finished the regular season in the top 12 of the RPI has failed to host.

That's the important stat, because it is very possible that we could lose 2 out of 3 and stay in the top 12. I don't think we'll host if we lose the series to South Carolina, especially if USA takes care of business or Ole Miss wins the series at LSU.

So here's my fearless prediction.

Sweep South Carolina: We grab the 4 seed in the SECT and are a 100% lock to host.
Take 2/3 from South Carolina: Likely 5 seed and have a very good shot at hosting. Probably 75% chance.
Lose 2/3 to South Carolina or get swept: Hosting is out, and we could drop as far as the 8th seed.

 

[CadaverDawg]

I agree with most of this 615....but what I don't understand is how you can put so much emphasis on RPI for State and USC, but completely ignore it for Arkansas. I will admit that if Arkansas closes out by winning the series at Auburn, they will have 19 SEC wins and that's hard to keep out. But, their RPI will still be in the mid to upper 30's, and I don't think there has ever been a SEC host with an RPI that high. Plus, the "experts" are saying they expect the committee to really emphasize RPI this year, so it makes me feel like Arkansas' 19 wins would look more like 16-17 in the committee's eyes. But who knows.

And I also think that winning 2 of 3 against South Carolina makes us 100% lock to host. The reason I say that, is because we would have a Top 10 RPI and will have finished the season beating another likely host team with a lower RPI. It would make zero sense for us not to host if we win the series against South Carolina.

And I don't really understand how Arkansas can be such a lock to host with a RPI of 44, while Ole Miss is considered having little chance when they have a RPI of 20, and 14 conference wins. Trust me, I don't want OM to host, but if they win 2 against LSU, they have a far more deserving overall profile than Arkansas.

I think it is going to be very interesting how it shakes out, and I wouldn't be surprised if the SEC Tourney played a factor in finalizing host spots this year.

And for what it's worth, I think we lose the series against South Carolina and end up as a 2 seed in either Mobile or Clemson. I just can't predict us winning a series against the team that beat LSU on the road twice, after what I have seen lately from our starting pitching. If we can get 5+ innings out of each starter, we win the series in my opinion.

 

[615dawg]

RPI is just one component. I'm not disregarding it for Arkansas but look at these components.

RPI Rank
Record
Strength of Schedule
Conference Finish
Geography

In some decisions, geography plays as big of part as RPI. In this case, I believe geography is going to play a bigger role than we would like, and conference finish is going to be how they justify it.

If you look at last year, Kentucky was a solid host, yet they gave it to Purdue, with an RPI similar to Arkansas'. Purdue won the Big Ten, and had a similar record, but getting a regional in that area of the country was important. We famously travelled to Ohio State in 2001. Ohio State hosted with an RPI in the 60s.

Same here. Usually there's an Oklahoma or Texas school that hosts. None this year, but those teams are going to qualify. You need somewhere close to send an Oklahoma or Kansas State, and Arkansas fits that mold this year.

I'm with you on the 2 out of 3. However, I have studied how these committees work. If we take 2 of 3 from USC, I would put us at 75% chance of hosting. Why not 100%? South Alabama. Their athletic director is sitting in that room making these decisions. And while he can't directly be involved, we know that having representation in that room can benefit you. If you are looking at an RPI 10 MSU vs. an RPI 13 South Alabama - there will be discussion about giving that host to USA. I don't think it will happen, but its not as definitive as we would hope.

Arkansas is a lock if they finish third in the SEC, which probably means they need to win 2 at Auburn. That conference finish + geography is going to outweigh a lower RPI, and their overall record is similar to other teams with the opportunity to host.

SEC Tourney will mean nothing. The hosts will be determined this weekend. Arkansas is trying to put the nail in the coffin and us and South Carolina are playing for a probable host. I would give USC 100% if they take 2 of 3. We need to take all 3 before I would be 100% confident.

We'd be an ideal candidate to end up at South Alabama. USA will be matched up with LSU in a Super Regional and I for one wouldn't mind that. I think we could win a Super in Baton Rouge. Clemson would probably be matched up with Vandy or one of the West Coast national seeds. I'd much rather play LSU than Vandy or Fullerton, or even travel to one of the Oregon schools.

 

[CadaverDawg]

RPI is just one component. I'm not disregarding it for Arkansas but look at these components.

RPI Rank
Record
Strength of Schedule
Conference Finish
Geography

In some decisions, geography plays as big of part as RPI. In this case, I believe geography is going to play a bigger role than we would like, and conference finish is going to be how they justify it.

If you look at last year, Kentucky was a solid host, yet they gave it to Purdue, with an RPI similar to Arkansas'. Purdue won the Big Ten, and had a similar record, but getting a regional in that area of the country was important. We famously travelled to Ohio State in 2001. Ohio State hosted with an RPI in the 60s.

Same here. Usually there's an Oklahoma or Texas school that hosts. None this year, but those teams are going to qualify. You need somewhere close to send an Oklahoma or Kansas State, and Arkansas fits that mold this year.

I'm with you on the 2 out of 3. However, I have studied how these committees work. If we take 2 of 3 from USC, I would put us at 75% chance of hosting. Why not 100%? South Alabama. Their athletic director is sitting in that room making these decisions. And while he can't directly be involved, we know that having representation in that room can benefit you. If you are looking at an RPI 10 MSU vs. an RPI 13 South Alabama - there will be discussion about giving that host to USA. I don't think it will happen, but its not as definitive as we would hope.

Arkansas is a lock if they finish third in the SEC, which probably means they need to win 2 at Auburn. That conference finish + geography is going to outweigh a lower RPI, and their overall record is similar to other teams with the opportunity to host.

SEC Tourney will mean nothing. The hosts will be determined this weekend. Arkansas is trying to put the nail in the coffin and us and South Carolina are playing for a probable host. I would give USC 100% if they take 2 of 3. We need to take all 3 before I would be 100% confident.

We'd be an ideal candidate to end up at South Alabama. USA will be matched up with LSU in a Super Regional and I for one wouldn't mind that. I think we could win a Super in Baton Rouge. Clemson would probably be matched up with Vandy or one of the West Coast national seeds. I'd much rather play LSU than Vandy or Fullerton, or even travel to one of the Oregon schools.

Good info man. You have definitely put in the research. Thanks.

 

[615dawg]

A table for comparing

	MSU	USC	ARK	CLEM	USA
RPI	10	11	44	12	14
Record	37-15	37-14	34-17	37-15	39-14
Strength of Schedule	6	20	66	14	48
Conference Finish	5th in 2nd BC	4th in 2nd BC	3rd in 2nd BC	4th in Best	1st in 5th BC
Geography	Medium(LSU)	Very Crowded	Advantageous	Very Crowded	Crowded(FSU,LSU)

<tbody>
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Three of these teams will host. It depends on which categories this particular group of nine men (which include the South Alabama AD) choose as most important.

 

[patdog]

I think they're a hell of a lot more likely to give that Midwestern regional to #22 Big 12 champion K-State than to #44 Arkansas. Your Purdue example is flawed because Purdue is a Big 10 team. They're going to get a lot more leeway to host with a low RPI than an SEC team is. If South Alabama takes 2 of 3 from Troy this weekend, I think they host. I generally agree that the SEC tournament will mean nothing, but I do think a play-in game loss could cost a team a host bid if they're borderline.

 

[CadaverDawg]

	MSU	USC	ARK	CLEM	USA
RPI	10	11	44	12	14
Record	37-15	37-14	34-17	37-15	39-14
Strength of Schedule	6	20	66	14	48
Conference Finish	5th in 2nd BC	4th in 2nd BC	3rd in 2nd BC	4th in Best	1st in 5th BC
Geography	Medium(LSU)	Very Crowded	Advantageous	Very Crowded	Crowded(FSU,LSU)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Three of these teams will host. It depends on which categories this particular group of nine men (which include the South Alabama AD) choose as most important.

Based on that chart....we should host regardless of what we do this weekend. We have the best overall resume of any of the other teams listed.....and it's not really even close against most of those.

 

[InaccuratePredictionsDawg]

Why are you claiming the SECT means nothing?...

..I remember 4 or 5 years ago, the University of Mississippi went into the SECT not even really considered a hosting candidate, yet they went on a winning tear in the tournament & the TV commentators kept saying, "I believe this Ole Miss team has used this tournament to lock down a hosting opportunity." Sure enough, after the tournament, Ole Miss was chosen as a host site (I don't remember if OM won the SECT, but they made the finals.). You people keep claiming the SECT does nothing to determine hosting choices when I've sat there year after year & wacthed teams play themselves into hosting spots via wins in the SECT. (And other league tournaments for that matter).

 

[engie]

I think you are artificially assigning too much weight to a bunch of factors in Arkansas' favor, primarily based on location. No SEC team has been more screwed for hosting regionals in terms of RPI in the super-regional era than Arky has. Of course, it's a script flip with them having bad RPI but good conference record -- but history is certainly not on their side for getting the "benefit of the doubt".

Major Conference hosts with a sub-30 RPI(a virtual Arky guarantee at this point) -- neglecting the "half hosts" in the early decade:
33 - Oregon St in 2006. That's IT.

Worst SEC RPI to host in this timeperiod? 21 Kentucky(2006), 23 Tennessee(2005).

"Screwed teams"(teams with an RPI in the top 16 on Selection Sunday):
1999
12 - Clemson
14 - NC State
16 - North Carolina

2000
7 - North Carolina
9 - Florida
14 - Wake Forest

2001
6 - South Carolina
11 - Long Beach St
12 - Auburn

2002
13 - North Carolina
15 - Richmond
16 - Louisiana Lafayette

2003
13 - Clemson
16 - North Carolina

2004
13 - Vanderbilt
15 - Cal State Fullerton

2005
10 - North Carolina
12 - College of Charleston
13 - NC State
16 - Arkansas

2006
11 - Miami
12 - Arkansas
14 - Florida St
16 - NC State

2007
14 - Miami
16 - NC State

2008
7 - Georgia Tech
11 - Texas
16 - Florida

2009
7 - Virginia
11 - Miami
12 - Arkansas
16 - Georgia

2010
11 - Vanderbilt
14 - Alabama

2011
13 - Arkansas
14 - Miami
15 - Stanford
16 - Southern Miss

2012
15 - Arkansas
16 - Kentucky

Ultimately, it's infinitisimally more likely historically that SEC teams with top 16 RPI's will get screwed -- than an SEC team with a sub-30 RPI is to host...

 

[CadaverDawg]

Looks like RPI is being more heavily factored the last few years, bc not as many top 8-12 RPI teams have been "screwed". With that being said, if we were to lose two to USC this weekend, what would our RPI most likely be?

Also, how important is 40 wins when looking at teams that historically host? Has there been a lot of teams that had 40 wins that weren't hosts? I'm just curious, bc it will take us beating USC twice plus a win over Oral Roberts to get to 40

 

[patdog]

I think we need a total of 3 more wins (ORU, USC, & SECT) to be a lock.

 

[Cousin Jeffrey]

With that being said, if we were to lose two to USC this weekend, what would our RPI most likely be?

After a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation...

# wins - RPI rank
0 - 14
1 - 11
2 - 10
3 - 9

Depends on what Clemson does against FSU, also. If we only win 1 and Clemson wins their series, that would probably drop us to #12.