Hosting: By my calculations

[615dawg]

We need to finish 7-3 in our final 10 to be comfortably hosting. 6-4 and we might need some help. 5-5 or worse and we won't host.

9-1 to get back in the national seed picture. Tremendous opportunity lost this weekend, and USC taking 2 of 3 from LSU hurt us more than getting swept by the RPI #2 team.

National Seed Locks
1. North Carolina (went 1-1 against NCState - finish ACC with Georgia Tech and Virginia. #1 is theirs to lose)
2. Vanderbilt (swept MSU, has USCe next.)
3. Virginia (lost 2 to Virginia Tech, overall #1 is down to 2 teams)
4. LSU (lost 2/3 to South Carolina. Still safe, but may be out of running for overall #1)
5. Oregon State (swept USC. Big series with Ducks in two weeks)
6. Cal State Fullerton (lost one at Hawaii, but still safe)
7. Florida State (big sweep gets them back in the nat'l seed pic. Series with NC State in two weeks could be for natl seed)

National Seed Race (one spot up for grabs)
8. Oregon (most vulnerable national seed)
9. South Carolina (right on the outside after winning series against LSU. Vandy next week and they are in)
10. Indiana (RPI of 12, Big Ten leader, winners of 8 straight)
11. North Carolina State (went 1-1 to UNC. FSU in 2 weeks)

Other Host Locks
12. Arizona State (manageable schedule from here out)
13. UCLA (manageable schedule from here out)
15. Louisville (RPI is a lot better than it has been)

Other Contenders (two spots up for grabs)
one of the following:
Oklahoma (slight edge) or Kansas State (Big 12 leader at this point)

and one of the following
Mississippi State (very slight edge), Arkansas (RPI concerns), Florida (W-L concerns), Ole Miss (has tremendous opportunity)

Long shot contenders:
Clemson, Notre Dame (both would need a lot to happen to get consideration)

 

[GOOD_DAWG2.0]

So no big deal right? Sweep Bama, take 1 and two from OM and USCe, and beat Oral Roberts. Very doable. We could possibly do very better.

 

[615dawg]

I think the SEC will get four, and Arkansas, Ole Miss and Florida are in consideration as well. 7-3 is the minimum we have to be to secure a Top 10 RPI.

 

[chew1095]

Am I the only one that thinks RPI is not the end all be all here? What happens if we do win 7 of our next 10, keep relatively the same RPI, but finish 4th or 5th in the SECW? 5th is probably unlikely, but 4th isn't. I guess I am looking at this the wrong way, but if a team is staring up from the 5th position in its own division, I wouldnt say that team had the "edge" in anything.

Put another way, even if we go 7-3, I still think we need UF, Ark, Bama and OM to lose as many games as possible. We control part of that to a degree because we host Bama and go to OM next weekend, but otherwise we need help. I believe in addition to going 7-3, we need to narrown the conference gap with Ark and UF and finish no worse than 3rd in the SECW.

 

[thatsbaseball]

It seems like they emphasize RPI some years more than others and we always seem to be on the wrong side of the equation.

 

[MSUDC11]

We need to sweep Bama and win the other two series to feel comfortable about hosting. I'm not convinced we will do that though, and it's not because we are mediocre. We have three good teams on our schedule, and winning seven games will be a big challenge.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Am I the only one that thinks RPI is not the end all be all here? What happens if we do win 7 of our next 10, keep relatively the same RPI, but finish 4th or 5th in the SECW? 5th is probably unlikely, but 4th isn't. I guess I am looking at this the wrong way, but if a team is staring up from the 5th position in its own division, I wouldnt say that team had the "edge" in anything.

Put another way, even if we go 7-3, I still think we need UF, Ark, Bama and OM to lose as many games as possible. We control part of that to a degree because we host Bama and go to OM next weekend, but otherwise we need help. I believe in addition to going 7-3, we need to narrown the conference gap with Ark and UF and finish no worse than 3rd in the SECW.

No offense at all, but I think you are looking at it the wrong way. The committee will have to look at who those teams played that are above us in the SEC. There is no denying that within conference play we had the toughest schedule. That's where RPI comes in to play, because it will factor in a majority of the things that aren't caught by just looking at Conference records. You also have to pay attention to overall records, AND wins/losses vs Top 50 rpi, Top 100rpi.

Arkansas has a very low rpi due to losing to terrible teams in midweek, and having a soft SOS. They also had a weak SEC SOS for the most part, so they will have to reach 19-20 SEC wins to even have a chance more than likely. Meanwhile, our rpi and SOS are really good, and our SEC SOS is tops in the league, so we will not have to have as good of a conference record to be considered. We will likely be in the mix at 15-15, but ideally we get to 16-14 or 17-13. If USC doesn't do well against Vandy or us....I think even 15-15 could get us one. It will depend on what others around us do in that situation though.

 

[CadaverDawg]

We need to sweep Bama and win the other two series to feel comfortable about hosting. I'm not convinced we will do that though, and it's not because we are mediocre. We have three good teams on our schedule, and winning seven games will be a big challenge.

I disagree. That would be winning 7 out of 9, plus an OOC game against Oral Roberts. If we finish the year 8-2, we will be back in the National Seed picture, and an easy host site. We probably only have to win 6 more SEC games to feel comfortable. Don't underestimate our rpi and SOS.

But you may be right.

 

[patdog]

I think you're right Cadaver. We just need to win all 3 series. Even if they're all 2-1, we should be fine as far as hosting goes.

 

[drt7891]

Arkansas also has some terrible losses. If we win our next three series and finish 6-3, we are pretty much in, I think. Anything less, we are not. I hated USCe beat lsu but if we finish with a top 10-15 RPI, I just don't see how they can not give us a spot.

If it came between us and Arkansas, they could have 2 or 3 more conference wins than us and not get a host, primarily because of the strength of conference schedules and bad ooc losses.. Which Arkansas has.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Let's also not forget that we could make a huge leap forward this weekend.

We have Bama at our place while our hosting competition has some tough games.

South Carolina hosts Vandy.
Ole Miss travels to Auburn.
Arkansas is at Kentucky.

If we win 2 of 3 or sweep, and USC, OM, or Arkansas drops 2 of 3...we're in great shape and singing a whole different tune next Monday.

I personally think Arkansas loses 2 of 3 at Kentucky, USC drops 2 of 3 at home to Vandy, and OM loses 1 to Auburn. That combination will almost finish off Arkansas's chances....OM is already in trouble having to finish the year with us and LSU after blowing a series against UK....and USC would be back in a situation where they need to beat us in Starkville at the end of the year more than likely. And for those that think Florida could still host, I dont agree. That Tennessee loss hurt them Sunday. They damn near have to win out to have a chance in my opinion. And they play at LSU this weekend.

But, that's just one man's opinion.

 

[patdog]

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Bears drop 2 at Auburn. They can't hit a lefty to save their life and Auburn is gonna throw 3 straight lefties.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Bears drop 2 at Auburn. They can't hit a lefty to save their life and Auburn is gonna throw 3 straight lefties.

Yea, I'm trying not to jinx it, but I agree with you pat. That would be a nail in their hosting coffin. I could see them losing two or sweeping Auburn. You never know what you're gonna get with that bunch.

We need to be Big Vandy fans this weekend. If somehow we could sweep Bama and have USC lose the series at home to Vandy...we are back in the drivers seat.

 

[engie]

I'm saying it again, just so everyone here understands it -- while trying to project Arky and Florida as host sites.

Since tournament expansion(super regional format) in 1999:

- NO SEC team has hosted with an RPI worse than #23(Tennessee 2005) and #21(Kentucky 2006).
Arkansas needs to win 8 of their final 10 JUST to make the RPI top 32 threshold. They'd have to win out to even have a chance at the RPI top 25 -- and they'd still be an SEC record-setter by RPI standards to get a bid.

- NO SEC team has hosted with more than 25 total defeats(after the postseason) -- which includes at least 4 losses between the SEC tourney and NCAAs, possibly more. Florida has 20 right now with a 3-game set at LSU coming up. Pretty good chance they have 25 defeats JUST in the regular season. Would be totally unprecedented for them to get a hosting bid in this situation.

It's between us, OM, and South Carolina for the final 2 likely SEC bids.

 

[maroonmania]

Am I the only one that thinks RPI is not the end all be all here? What happens if we do win 7 of our next 10, keep relatively the same RPI, but finish 4th or 5th in the SECW? 5th is probably unlikely, but 4th isn't. I guess I am looking at this the wrong way, but if a team is staring up from the 5th position in its own division, I wouldnt say that team had the "edge" in anything.

Put another way, even if we go 7-3, I still think we need UF, Ark, Bama and OM to lose as many games as possible. We control part of that to a degree because we host Bama and go to OM next weekend, but otherwise we need help. I believe in addition to going 7-3, we need to narrown the conference gap with Ark and UF and finish no worse than 3rd in the SECW.

Given the HUGE disparity in SEC baseball scheduling, if anyone in the NCAA baseball committee has half a brain then your exact position in the SEC standings should be about the last criteria because it is worthless. We probably still need to get to 16-14 but even at that record it would be more equavilent to a 20-10 record for schedules that some of the other SEC schools have.

 

[drt7891]

OM also doesn't have the bats, however, they do have pretty solid pitching. Auburn, on the other hand, doesn't have much pitching, but they aren't a bad hitting team. The top 5 in their lineup is about as good as anyone else's in the league.

 

[drt7891]

Exactly. Other schools caught breaks by getting Mizzou, UT, and UGA while we got USCe, @UK, @Vandy. As an example, us going 5-4 between the three we have is just about like another team going 9-0 against the first three opponents. Strength of schedule makes a HUGE difference and with that, we have a larger margin for error.