Hot stretch has revived Rutgers' NCAA Tournament hopes, but Scarlet Knights need more to erase ugly losses
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Win the tourney and definitely in. Win 6 ore conference games and then 2 in the Big tourney should put us in the last four.
I have always thought the number was 20 wins. 19 might get it done depending on the wins. Regardless, they need to continue to win and then win several BIG Tourney games.
I’ve always thought, mostly following @bac2therac s years of work and analysis, that we’d need to get to 19 wins now to have a winning quad 1-3 record and thus be on the bubble. It’s logical and I still agree with it. I also believe the Conf tourney doesn’t matter. We’ve seen too many examples of that in recent years.
What I’ll say is every year 1-2 teams get in with questionable resumes. Head scratchers. Not logical choices. I’m starting to think if RU can get to 18 they’ll get in. Whether they consider Dylan’s fly and injury, or, whether they just want to star power of Ace and Dylan. They’re quite the story. I’m not saying expect it, but I think it’s possible. That being said they’d still need to go 6-2 while playing three ranked teams all on the road. Five total road games left in total. Man it would be so cool. I’m allowing myself to dream.
What I’ll say is every year 1-2 teams get in with questionable resumes. Head scratchers. Not logical choices. I’m starting to think if RU can get to 18 they’ll get in. Whether they consider Dylan’s fly and injury, or, whether they just want to star power of Ace and Dylan. They’re quite the story. I’m not saying expect it, but I think it’s possible. That being said they’d still need to go 6-2 while playing three ranked teams all on the road. Five total road games left in total. Man it would be so cool. I’m allowing myself to dream.
Winning B1G Tourney games isn't enough to make up for an entire body of work from the season
Now, winning the B1G Tourney, that would be something
We don't have a favorable schedule, and have not shown any consistency all year. I'll enjoy the ride, but my mindset is that we are out - and have been for a long time. Anything is possible, but it seems after every win hope springs eternal. Odds are very much stacked against us - is a magic carpet ride possible? Sure. Is it probable? Absolutely not. 99% chance this team will not be able to outrun their past.
A 12-11 record is what matters along with so many difficult road games yet to be played.
Agree fully.
But look on the bright side - the very difficult schedule is actually an opportunity
If we were in this same situation but had mostly home games against the bottom 3rd of the league there may not have been any opportunity to make up enough ground
But
The difficult schedule comprised of opportunities for Q1 wins and road wins…. there’s a road there to possibly make the tourney
And with Ace playing as he is now, with Dylan healthy, with the “others” playing better, with the defense and rebounding issues vastly improved….
There’s still a chance. However small
This is untrue.
A few weeks ago I posted about winning streaks ... having trouble finding the post. But it was in a thread about NC State and their run last season to win the ACC championship last season to make the NCAA - then their run in the NCAA to the Final Four.
In that post I listed all the JUST BIG TEN teams in recent years that had late season surprising winning streaks. There were several: Northwestern Penn State, Maryland ... maybe Iowa one year ... all had late-season winning streaks that carried them form not even ON the bubble to an at large bid. I do not have time this moment to recreate that analysis - may get to it later today. My POINT is that several Big 10 teams with double digit losses late in the season cl0sed the season with 5-6 game winning streaks, and/or 7 of 9 wins, to get them onto the bubble, and then invited as an at-large.
Though I think it will be difficult, it is POSSIBLE. And I still think the odds are RU is out unless they win the Big 10 tourney ... of course finishing 9th or better in the conference (which is still possible, even with a 4-4 finish) helps that since it means 1 less game RU would have to win to win the Big 10 tourney.
The difficult schedule is quite literally the only reason why they have any hopes for a NCAA bid, unlikely as it may be.