How accurate is the ECMWF? Because it is quite the *****...
- Thread starter Xenomorph
- Start date
No tropical model is going to be highly accurate seven days out. Most aren't very good beyond three to five days.
There's a lot of variables in play here - a 500mb trough will build in the Eastern US, and these typically cause tropical systems to move poleward (north) then recurve back out over the Atlantic. Timing is everything. Will the trough be there when Isaac gets close to Florida? We'll have a better idea by Saturday.
Isaac still has a lot of structural issues to overcome, the core is poorly defined, there's a lot of dry air entrainment going on. The dry are should mix out within two days, but then you have the mountains of Haiti/DR and Eastern Cuba that will interfere with its structure. Stay tuned.
There's a lot of variables in play here - a 500mb trough will build in the Eastern US, and these typically cause tropical systems to move poleward (north) then recurve back out over the Atlantic. Timing is everything. Will the trough be there when Isaac gets close to Florida? We'll have a better idea by Saturday.
Isaac still has a lot of structural issues to overcome, the core is poorly defined, there's a lot of dry air entrainment going on. The dry are should mix out within two days, but then you have the mountains of Haiti/DR and Eastern Cuba that will interfere with its structure. Stay tuned.
Also... if that thing hugs the western FL coast like some indicate, the drag/friction effect could possibly weaken it too.
But yes... still too far out, really.
ETA: European is taking it was west of the others. GFS/CMC/NoGaps that I saw recently all had it hugging FL.
But yes... still too far out, really.
ETA: European is taking it was west of the others. GFS/CMC/NoGaps that I saw recently all had it hugging FL.
The Euro is accurate, but it's not perfect... it is on-par with the GFS and IMO more precise than the NOGAPS and GEM models.
Like J-Dawg said, the Euro solution is the farthest west of all; it's a major outlier. However, today's 12z run of the GFS has taken Isaac off the western coast of Florida. Looks like the Bermuda high is a little stronger in the 12z, pushing Isaac over a larger section of Cuba.
Like J-Dawg said, the Euro solution is the farthest west of all; it's a major outlier. However, today's 12z run of the GFS has taken Isaac off the western coast of Florida. Looks like the Bermuda high is a little stronger in the 12z, pushing Isaac over a larger section of Cuba.