I do find it telling

[JackShephard]

That Florida, the new media darling, and a current favorite to reach the playoffs, is only a 4.5 point favorite against Missouri. Granted, it's on the road for Florida, and we only opened as a 1.5 favorite against them at home. But we covered and won by 7.

Alabama only opened at -3, per Vegas. Betting pushed it to 6 quick, but the public was all over Ole Miss at Florida too. Will be interesting to see where the "sharp" money lands.

Also of note, South Carolina is favored against ranked Kentucky, and TN is only favored by 7 at home vs Auburn. TN, who was 1 play from taking down #1.

All this to say - Vegas seems to view us much stronger than I do, and than FPI does. I shouldn't do this to myself, but I'm starting to wonder if I'm selling us short. I see all of our warts, but maybe it's baked in and we're still that good? Don't get me wrong, I see us as 8-4 or even 9-3, but I've basically conceded this week. Am I wrong?

ETA: Answered my own question by asking AI. AI claims sharp money is on us and drove the spread from 6.5 back to 5.5 after the public went heavy on Bama.

 

[Drebin]

Lines are always more conservative during the first part of the season. Nobody knows who the real Florida, or Mississippi State, or Missouri, or South Carolina, or Kentucky is yet.

 

[Boosh]

I've been in the same line of thinking. Am I seeing the team realistically or through my darkened lenses from decades of pain.

 

[BIGDAWG44]

So I used the teams' current 2026 scoring/offensive and defensive numbers, plus a modest home-field adjustment for Mississippi State. Through four games, Alabama is averaging 48.0 PPG and allowing 20.3, while Mississippi State is averaging 43.0 and allowing 21.0.

I ran this model 200,000 times. It’s sort of the same model the sport books use. Here are the results.

bama wins 49.6%
state wins 47.2%
tie 3.2%

bama average score 34.5
State average score 34.1

Model says bama 35 state 34

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I don't think anyone has perfected the 'model' just yet. I mean I personally though Sumrall was not going to be a fit at Flarrda, because generally you need speed and offense to win there, to take advantage of available players. But the concept of 'available players' is a concept of the old era. Now Sumrall is developing an MSU-type program at Flarrda, and Lebby is looking more like the old high-flying UF teams at MSU. It's almost like you can do anything in this new era.

Auburn really messed up by not hiring Sumrall. Was a perfect fit.

 

[8dog]

Mizzou is at home and not a bad team. Florida is basically playing without any vertical passing game So I can see that.

 

[Chile]

If Lane had just said for sure he was leaving after the egg bowl, Ole Miss would have been on Sumrall also. But Auburn really screwed up and a reminder that arrogant AD screwed us up as well.

Mizzou has good coaching and can hold the game close with Florida.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Missouri is loaded. They had two injuries at running back on their third guy was still very good. Didn't see any weaknesses in their roster.

 

[HailStout]

Auburn really messed up by not hiring Sumrall. Was a perfect fit.

 

[HulksStache]

Remind me how Auburn screwed up the Sumrall hire? Didn’t Cohen want to keep the DC and Sumrall wanted to bring his own? I honestly don’t remember the whole story.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

The teams that we have beaten have a chance to make statements this weekend
Minnesota hosts Michigan - Michigan is not very good. That looks like a really good win if Minnesota wins this game
Missouri hosts Florida - that game in COMO is a toss-up. I was impressed with Missouri. The media has fallen in love with Florida. Ole Miss may need to work on their narrative about football season if Missouri wins.
South Carolina hosts Kentucky - classic example of Kentucky will be better coached, but USCE has better dudes. I think South Carolina has quit, but a win from them helps our resume'.

 

[GloryDawg]

Anyone Minnesota or Missouri beats we are better than. Just saying.

 

[patdog]

Lines are always more conservative during the first part of the season. Nobody knows who the real Florida, or Mississippi State, or Missouri, or South Carolina, or Kentucky is yet.

True. But if South Carolina beats Kentucky, I'm going to seriously question everything that's happened so far this season for both teams.

 

[patdog]

Mizzou is at home and not a bad team. Florida is basically playing without any vertical passing game So I can see that.

Also, Florida not going to run all over Missouri like they have everyone they've played so far.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I ran this model 200,000 times. It’s sort of the same model the sport books use. Here are the results.

 

[Puppers]

As bad as we were last year we were 8-4 against the spread and we were 7-5 in 2024

 

[dudehead]

That Florida, the new media darling, and a current favorite to reach the playoffs, is only a 4.5 point favorite against Missouri. Granted, it's on the road for Florida, and we only opened as a 1.5 favorite against them at home. But we covered and won by 7.

Alabama only opened at -3, per Vegas. Betting pushed it to 6 quick, but the public was all over Ole Miss at Florida too. Will be interesting to see where the "sharp" money lands.

Also of note, South Carolina is favored against ranked Kentucky, and TN is only favored by 7 at home vs Auburn. TN, who was 1 play from taking down #1.

All this to say - Vegas seems to view us much stronger than I do, and than FPI does. I shouldn't do this to myself, but I'm starting to wonder if I'm selling us short. I see all of our warts, but maybe it's baked in and we're still that good? Don't get me wrong, I see us as 8-4 or even 9-3, but I've basically conceded this week. Am I wrong?

ETA: Answered my own question by asking AI. AI claims sharp money is on us and drove the spread from 6.5 back to 5.5 after the public went heavy on Bama.

The dumbest thing you can do is bet a State game.

 

[Darryl Steight]

If Lane had just said for sure he was leaving after the egg bowl, Ole Miss would have been on Sumrall also.

Thanks Lane!

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I’m not sure the Sumrall thing is as complicated as people want to make it. Look at Florida’s roster compared to Ole Miss and Auburn right now. He CLEARLY picked the best roster of the 3. UF barely even tried to throw the ball downfield on OM and still hung 52 on them. Sun Belt Billy couldn’t coach but he could really recruit, and Sumrall walked into a gold mine.

That said, I do think Mizzou is good and could see them winning that game at home. It would also be really funny if they did and OM’s loss immediately got devalued.

They OM contingent this week is talking up Florida like they’re the second coming of Saban era Bama.

 

[lazlow]

There's two flarda's. Swamp Flarda and road-flarda. Road-flarda gave up 39 to an Awbarn team that's 13th in the conf in scoring. Mizzou is 8th. But slight correction for the plainsmen's tougher schedule through week 4.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

The dumbest thing you can do is bet a State game.

I think MSU is 19-10 against the spread in Lebby's first 2 plus seasons. 4-0 this season

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Remind me how Auburn screwed up the Sumrall hire? Didn’t Cohen want to keep the DC and Sumrall wanted to bring his own? I honestly don’t remember the whole story.

Yep. And really for no reason at all. It's not like Durkin did anything great. And most times, when firing a coach, it's not a good idea to keep holdouts unless the new coach advocates for it. Sort of like OC and Parker.

Cohen has a history of this. I think his intentions are good but his execution is horrible. The only time you manipulate stuff like that is in extraordinary circumstances is when your coach leaves for a better option (ie, things are going well and you want them to continue) or in a situation like Leach. We bungled both of them, from 2017 Mullen to 2022 Leach. Both were perfect times to promote from within, but instead, Cohen cleaned house after 2017 and then in 2022, we didn't put the correct stipulations on Arnett (ie keep the existing offense).

ETA: And the worst part is......Cohen might have gotten the 2022 situation correct, but he had already bolted to Auburn. It's like the guy hasn't made a correct decision since he took our AD job.

 

[JackShephard]

The dumbest thing you can do is bet a State game.

This thread has nothing to do with betting. Never did I say I was betting, or encourage anyone else to bet. The lines are just a good gauge of how likely we are to be in a close game. Vegas is really good at this, and they decided it was likely a FG game.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Lines are always more conservative during the first part of the season. Nobody knows who the real Florida, or Mississippi State, or Missouri, or South Carolina, or Kentucky is yet.

Also there’s so many mid tier teams in the SEC that it’s hard to judge. Any given team can beat the other on any given Saturday.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Lines are always more conservative during the first part of the season. Nobody knows who the real Florida, or Mississippi State, or Missouri, or South Carolina, or Kentucky is yet.

Also there’s so many mid tier teams in the SEC that it’s hard to judge. Any given team can beat the other on any given Saturday.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

Also, Florida not going to run all over Missouri like they have everyone they've played so far.

State ran on MIZZOU pretty effectively, particularly right up the middle. It wasn't big yardage, but Fluff wound up with over 100 and 4.9 yards per carry. The running was good enough to make them defend it.

Florida can run on them. Probably not as easily as against UMiss, but they will put up big numbers.

 

[patdog]

State ran on MIZZOU pretty effectively, particularly right up the middle. It wasn't big yardage, but Fluff wound up with over 100 and 4.9 yards per carry. The running was good enough to make them defend it.

Florida can run on them. Probably not as easily as against UMiss, but they will put up big numbers.

We ran for 139 yards vs Missouri. Florida ran for 305 vs Mississippi. Yeah their rushing game looks great. Check out their schedule. FAU, Campbell and the two worst rushing defenses in the SEC. Florida will be closer to the 139 than they will be to the 305 Saturday.

 

[thatsbaseball]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Missouri won this game .

 

[Darryl Steight]

Also there’s so many mid tier teams in the SEC that it’s hard to judge. Any given team can beat the other on any given Saturday.

Germans**

 

[HailStout]

Also there’s so many mid tier teams in the SEC that it’s hard to judge. Any given team can beat the other on any given Saturday.

 

[tired]

I’m not sure the Sumrall thing is as complicated as people want to make it. Look at Florida’s roster compared to Ole Miss and Auburn right now. He CLEARLY picked the best roster of the 3. UF barely even tried to throw the ball downfield on OM and still hung 52 on them. Sun Belt Billy couldn’t coach but he could really recruit, and Sumrall walked into a gold mine.

FL has nearly 50 new players from last year & over 30 are transfers including their starting qb. I'd say Sumrall deserves more credit than given here but yeah he walked into some talent.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

FL has nearly 50 new players from last year & over 30 are transfers including their starting qb. I'd say Sumrall deserves more credit than given here but yeah he walked into some talent.

Oh yeah Sumrall is great. And he helped himself by hiring an elite OC that may be the head coach at South Carolina in about two months.

But it also helps to inherit Top 3 RB and WR rooms in the SEC.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

That Florida, the new media darling, and a current favorite to reach the playoffs, is only a 4.5 point favorite against Missouri. Granted, it's on the road for Florida, and we only opened as a 1.5 favorite against them at home. But we covered and won by 7.

Alabama only opened at -3, per Vegas. Betting pushed it to 6 quick, but the public was all over Ole Miss at Florida too. Will be interesting to see where the "sharp" money lands.

Also of note, South Carolina is favored against ranked Kentucky, and TN is only favored by 7 at home vs Auburn. TN, who was 1 play from taking down #1.

All this to say - Vegas seems to view us much stronger than I do, and than FPI does. I shouldn't do this to myself, but I'm starting to wonder if I'm selling us short. I see all of our warts, but maybe it's baked in and we're still that good? Don't get me wrong, I see us as 8-4 or even 9-3, but I've basically conceded this week. Am I wrong?

ETA: Answered my own question by asking AI. AI claims sharp money is on us and drove the spread from 6.5 back to 5.5 after the public went heavy on Bama.

Good observations.
I think Bama covers but I sure hope I’m wrong and we win outright.
TN vs Auburn is about right bc UT has to get up for 2 weeks in a row.
I could see taking Auburn and the points in that one.
Vegas usually isn’t wrong for a reason.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Model says bama 35 state 34

Someone is getting fired in Birmingham if we are allowed to be that close

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

The teams that we have beaten have a chance to make statements this weekend
Minnesota hosts Michigan - Michigan is not very good. That looks like a really good win if Minnesota wins this game
Missouri hosts Florida - that game in COMO is a toss-up. I was impressed with Missouri. The media has fallen in love with Florida. Ole Miss may need to work on their narrative about football season if Missouri wins.
South Carolina hosts Kentucky - classic example of Kentucky will be better coached, but USCE has better dudes. I think South Carolina has quit, but a win from them helps our resume'.

Minnesota just went on the road and beat a good Washington team last week.
MN is a good football team and will beat Michigan this weekend.
I felt like we could beat MN but thought it would be a damn close game that we gutted out in the 4th Qrt if we even won at all.
Had Washington been on the schedule, I would have said it will be a fluke to beat UW.
Minnesota just did it.
State has a good football team but our schedule and LT is brutal !

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Remind me how Auburn screwed up the Sumrall hire? Didn’t Cohen want to keep the DC and Sumrall wanted to bring his own? I honestly don’t remember the whole story.

Story I’ve gotten anyway.

 

[ReverseCowbell]

it could be that Florida isnt elite, which would mean that Mississippi isnt great, which means LSU is just pretty good, which means Texas A&M is pretty bad, which means Kentucky is just ok, which means Bama is pretty good, which means South Carolina is really bad, which means we are an unknown.

it could also mean they want people to place bets.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

it could be that Florida isnt elite, which would mean that Mississippi isnt great, which means LSU is just pretty good, which means Texas A&M is pretty bad, which means Kentucky is just ok, which means Bama is pretty good, which means South Carolina is really bad, which means we are an unknown.

it could also mean they want people to place bets.

Damn!

 

[ReverseCowbell]

Silly Rabbit, transitive properties are for kids!

 

[JackShephard]

I don't think it's the transitive property to notice that Vegas doesn't see a huge gap between all of these teams. It's pretty indicative that there's a lot of parity in the league, even at the top (maybe Georgia is in a class of it's own, but we'll see in the coming weeks). It seems like the SEC is a pretty well balanced league with a lot of really good teams this year.