I wish I knew what bowl we're going to.
- Thread starter PBRME
- Start date
that's exactly what I'd do. I put our chances of bowl games at the following:
ChickfilA - 60% - lose out or go 1-2.
Cotton: 20% - go 2-1 or 1-2 with Arkansas losing to USC and MSU
Music City: 8% - lose out in an ugly fashion
Gator - 7% - outside shot if we go 1-2, but I think the Florida/USC loser ends up here.
Liberty - 3% - lose out in an ugly fashion and Georgia gets bowl eligible by beating Auburn
Capital One - 1.8% - win out with a little help from LSU.
Outback - 0.19% - probably considered at 2-1, but doubtful - Florida/USC winner ends up here
Sugar - 0.001% - win out, get help from LSU and Bama losing, get some help from Nevada, Notre Dame and Utah, and possibly Oklahoma State and/or Baylor.
ChickfilA - 60% - lose out or go 1-2.
Cotton: 20% - go 2-1 or 1-2 with Arkansas losing to USC and MSU
Music City: 8% - lose out in an ugly fashion
Gator - 7% - outside shot if we go 1-2, but I think the Florida/USC loser ends up here.
Liberty - 3% - lose out in an ugly fashion and Georgia gets bowl eligible by beating Auburn
Capital One - 1.8% - win out with a little help from LSU.
Outback - 0.19% - probably considered at 2-1, but doubtful - Florida/USC winner ends up here
Sugar - 0.001% - win out, get help from LSU and Bama losing, get some help from Nevada, Notre Dame and Utah, and possibly Oklahoma State and/or Baylor.
....the Peach bowl would, if given the choice, pick us over Florida or Georgia.
I think that's wishful thinking.
3-0 we go to Cotton or Capital one.
2-1, loss to Bama, then we go to Cotton if Arky loses one to LSU or SC (Arky one more SEC loss than us, we may still get passed over), otherwise Peach if SC beats FL (FL two more SEC loses than us), Gator if not (GA two more SEC losses than us).
1-2, Arky to Cotton, SC and FL both probably have at least the same conf. record as us or one more loss, and GA has only one more SEC loss, so we probably get Music City Bowl.
0-3, probably still Music City.
damn, that Arkansas game is important.
I think that's wishful thinking.
3-0 we go to Cotton or Capital one.
2-1, loss to Bama, then we go to Cotton if Arky loses one to LSU or SC (Arky one more SEC loss than us, we may still get passed over), otherwise Peach if SC beats FL (FL two more SEC loses than us), Gator if not (GA two more SEC losses than us).
1-2, Arky to Cotton, SC and FL both probably have at least the same conf. record as us or one more loss, and GA has only one more SEC loss, so we probably get Music City Bowl.
0-3, probably still Music City.
damn, that Arkansas game is important.
If we win one more game, the SEC pecking order wouldn't allow Georgia to be picked over us. Georgia had to beat Auburn or Georgia Tech to even get to 6-6, that's not a guarantee.
Florida is going to the Outback Bowl. South Carolina and State are Peach/Gator bound.
I will agree with you - if we beat Arkansas, we're in the Cotton.
Florida is going to the Outback Bowl. South Carolina and State are Peach/Gator bound.
I will agree with you - if we beat Arkansas, we're in the Cotton.
Georgia got picked before us with 2 more losses than we had. It was the Outback, not the Gator, but who's to say the Gator bowl won't do the same thing?
and we can't guarantee they won't be 7-5.
SC/FL winner is going to the Outback bowl. if SC loses, they're going to the Peach, no way Peach passes up on nearby SC. and they might take a 2-more-loss FL team over us too, as it appears they are no longer locked into the SEC #5.
we've never had a year where MSU has been up and FL and Georgia are both down. there's no precedent. but there's plenty of precedent of MSU being passed over, especially for bowls out east for east teams.
and we can't guarantee they won't be 7-5.
SC/FL winner is going to the Outback bowl. if SC loses, they're going to the Peach, no way Peach passes up on nearby SC. and they might take a 2-more-loss FL team over us too, as it appears they are no longer locked into the SEC #5.
we've never had a year where MSU has been up and FL and Georgia are both down. there's no precedent. but there's plenty of precedent of MSU being passed over, especially for bowls out east for east teams.
They have 4 right now and have Idaho State, Auburn, and Ga Tech left on the schedule. They won't be bowl eligible, at best, until their final game. If we lose out and a 6 win UGA team gets a better bowl than a 7 win MSU team that beat them during the regular season, I'm boycotting something!
I thought what you did before, but couldn't verify it. The 1-loss rule is cited for the Capitol One Bowl, but not for any of the others, from what i've seen. Remember, the rules changed when the SEC added the Gator bowl and dumped the Indy.