If you were AD and we end at 5-7 - would Mullen get another year?**

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

As much as it pains me to say it...

So answer this question and don't dance around it. Would you have fired Jackie Sherrill in 1993 or 1995 or 1996 at the end of the season?

...I'm with Cadaver here. In every season but 2010 we have under performed. We are doing it again. I've seen enough.

Sherrill & Mullen are 2 different cases. We KNEW Sherrill could turn it around bc of his success at previous schools. Plus, he scored some upsets and gave us a nasty identity. Everyone knew they were going to be in a fight against us in the 90's. Mullen hasn't proven it, and has earned a reputation as a guy who can't trade punches with the big boys.

 

[PhredPhantom]

Im tired of being able to count every game against a team with a winning record as a damn loss.

My sentiment exactly.

 

[CoolDawg]

No. Especially when you take into account the fact the he can't/won't recruit.

I totally agree. I am amused that anyone would suggest that not giving him a contract extension would hurt recruiting. I mean, how much worse can it get? We are currently 12th out of 14 teams for the upcoming signing class. If he does stay, it should be with no contract extension. Otherwise, when that great season that the kool aid drinkers think will materialize next year doesn't happen, we will have to pay him more money when he gets fired next year.

 

[engie]

It's not a calculated risk when the probability tells you that you will most likely do worse. To base it on a calculated risk means you have to have some reference, historical precedence, analysis that tells you that its a good calculated risk to change coaches.

How does the "probability" tell us that we will "likely" get worse? That's just you saying what you want to hear.

If Mullen finishes this year 5-7, he will be 34-29(.540) overall. In terms of SEC games, he would be 15-25(.375).
We are 536-535-40(.501) all-time on the field. In terms of SEC games, it is 200-368-18(.358 ) on the field.

Mullen is only 3.9% above our historical average in all games -- and only 1.7% above our historical average in SEC games.

That tells us that -- JUST using MSU's history as the barometer -- it's approximately JUST as likely that we would get better with a new coaching hire. It's basically a 50/50 proposition. Or -- more precisely -- a 48.8-51.2 proposition.

By the purest of numbers(on-field results), Mullen hasn't "elevated us a tier" at all. He's been average -- even by our OWN lowly historical standards.

What is the percentage of that occurring to make it a calculated risk?

Depends on the replacement.

There's a very strong chance that it won't be better and the best case scenario is they are they same.

That's not the "best case" scenario at all. That's the most probable scenario.

 

[CoolDawg]

Bryant never had a losing season while he was at Alabama. When he did have a couple of teams in the late 60's that were not as good as previous years, he had already won national championships. If you want to compare Mullen with Bryant, Bryant had been at Bama for no longer than Mullen has been at State, when he won a national championship. If Mullen had built up a resume like Bryant had, no one would be suggesting that this one and a half season slump would be grounds for sending him packing.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I think the point was that even with all that Bryant done prior, after back to back subpar seasons, the fans and AD did question whether they should bring him back. That was answering the question, has it ever worked out when the fans/ad ask should he get another year. Of course it was the right decision that wasn't the debate. But there where serious questions about Bryant continuing forward. There was serious questions about Saban after his 4th year at Michigan State as well.

 

[Hanmudog]

Just to offer the other side of the coin, sometimes getting your butt kicked for an entire season can light a fire under a coach's *** so maybe giving Mullen another shot would not be a bad thing.

 

[jacksonreb]

thank goodness....an actual reader.....yes

there were big questions at bama then and bear was definitely being questioned by the money folks and the admin. real low tolerance level over there.

I think the point was that even with all that Bryant done prior, after back to back subpar seasons, the fans and AD did question whether they should bring him back. That was answering the question, has it ever worked out when the fans/ad ask should he get another year. Of course it was the right decision that wasn't the debate. But there where serious questions about Bryant continuing forward. There was serious questions about Saban after his 4th year at Michigan State as well.

 

[CoolDawg]

Bryant was the AD at Alabama back then. He was AD and head football coach the entire time that he was at Alabama. I still contend that comparing Mullen's situation with Bryant's at Alabama is absurd.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I disagree. For me...

1) The first 7 games last year pretty much sucked. Message board jockeys argued about whether we were just holding back or if we really sucked. Everyone wanted to believe that we were holding back. Alabama and every team after confirmed that we sucked.

2) That means that we are in year 2 of suckitude. Regardless of W/L, it just FEELS terrible watching us flounder for 2 straight years.

3) This year, watching us misuse personnel (JRob's carries, Shump's redshirt, etc.) and watching us look generally bad adds fuel to the fire.

4) "But we go bowling with Dan." Yeah, and 69 other teams go bowling without Dan.

5) "Those bowls are important for practice." Generally speaking more practice = better team/players. However, if you are trying to tell me that this team looks crisp and well oiled and we owe it all to those extra bowl practices, I'm not sure whether I should dismiss the bowl practice theory or be thankful we had them so we don't look any worse.

Add all that up and I'd be fine to punt Dan, IF Hud is really just chomping at the bit to get here and absolutely none of my rationale has anything to do with Ole Miss. Zero. I'm tired of watching us suck (or at least not seem to progress).

Take a look back at the Dan sentiment in year 2 and compare it to Freeze right now. Freeze may be the real deal, or maybe not. I just know that in year 2 MSU fans were just praying to hold on to him and Ole Miss fans were trying to stir up any hopeful Dan leaving rumors. At least State fans aren't so scared of Hugh that they are peppering all the message boards with job opening rumors...I'll go out on a limb and predict that the State/OM series will continue to be about even over any 10 year cycle...

 

[dawgit83]

The only way to have a truly Great season next year is to boot Mullen now. He is not an active learner and cannot continue to learn on the job at our expense! The guys gutting itout everyday in practice should have fairh that their coach knows what he is doing an goes out there with a game plan. Not with the attitude we will just have to find a way to win. They can do that on their own without him.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Those percentages are not correct Engie. If you take .540-.501=.039. .309/.501=.0778x100=7.78%. Of course the .501 would not be accurate to use because you are using his own record against him. You have use our historical number before he started. Not now. The actual percentage is 8.4% above our historical number prior to his arrival if he finishes 5-7. For reference if we were to fire him compared to all the coaches fired in this league since 2011, Mullen, Petrino and Chizik would be the only three fired that were on the positive side against the schools historic percentage. Petrino 12.7%, Mullen 8.4%, Chizik 1.28%. As of today Mullen percentage is 10.4%. If we go 6-6 his percentage is 11.6%. In fact of the 19 coaches that have coached in this league since 2011, he ranks 9th right now right below Petrino. Saban was 17.1%, Richt was 16.3%, Franklin 17.2%, before last weeks games and are the ones right above Mullen.

Historically, when dealing with bottom tier schools, you will find only a couple of times that the school actually fired a coach who was on positive side against their win percentage. Their predecessor never did better. In this league the last time it happened was Cutcliff. The coach that followed Mike Price at Washington State was around .500 and just barely over the schools number. Fired after five years and his predecessor did worse. Although I completely agree they did right because other than the first year taking over for Price in which he won 10 games he did nothing after that and that season inflated his numbers. Then you have to go back and look at coaches who left on there own. You have some better results there, Gundy after Miles is one off the top of my head. I'm on my phone and don't have all my research but I can't think of really any others that have followed a 4-6 year guy with as much success as he has had and even equaled it, much less better it. Maybe Stewart after Rich Rod at West Virginia although their in a much better place historically then us.

When I said best case scenario I meant in the sense that the odds are very slim that they do. Probably should have stated that better.

 

[CadaverDawg]

...I'm with Cadaver here. In every season but 2010 we have under performed. We are doing it again. I've seen enough.

Sherrill & Mullen are 2 different cases. We KNEW Sherrill could turn it around bc of his success at previous schools. Plus, he scored some upsets and gave us a nasty identity. Everyone knew they were going to be in a fight against us in the 90's. Mullen hasn't proven it, and has earned a reputation as a guy who can't trade punches with the big boys.

Yep, exactly.

I stole this from Croom Diaries, but read this and then tell me we aren't pathetic. Hell, even my negative *** felt worse about the situation after reading this...

I thought one of the most interesting comments in this thread was that Croom had 10 SEC wins in 5 years, Mullen has 14 (with 3 more games this year).

Croom's 10 SEC wins were against teams that had a combined 57-66 record (.463)

Mullen's 14 SEC wins were against teams that had a combined 65-105 record (.382): includes UK's 2-7 record so far this year.

UK and OM account for EIGHT of Mullen's 14 wins. Basically the difference between the two right now is that Mullen has been able to beat OM and UK (Croom only won 4 vs. those two)....and they sucked just as hard - losing records for UK in 04 and 05, OM in 04, 05, 06, 07. Plus Mullen has been able to beat non-conference patsies that we should have been beating all along....including 5 FCS teams.

 

[engie]

Overcomplicating something that's simple. Average is average. Mullen is average. As such, any average coach should replicate his success.

I don't care what happened at Washington State in 2002. Fact of the matter is -- what Mullen has done here to this point is EASILY replicable by any coach worth his salt.

I still don't follow your "math" on how you go about establishing what we should be. Your previous examples are of coaches "that significantly outferformed their team's historical averages" -- when Mullen no longer fits in that group. If Mullen goes 4-8 -- which is a real possibility with Dak's situation right now -- he's BELOW our historical averages. That puts him outside of your scenario altogether.

At best, he is BARELY inside the parameters.

 

[Philly Dawg]

There has actually be a study that looked at the numbers, which showed that mediocre teams who fire coaches based on performance tend to do worse than similarly situated teams who do not fire coaches.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/featur...-record-football-teams-after-coaching-changes

 

[Philly Dawg]

If you assume that its virtually automatic that MSU can replicate Mullen's level of success with any coach, then you can make a valid argument for his being fired. What do we have to lose?

But I don't see how, looking back at our records and results over the years, that one could actually reach that conclusion. Maybe that is the true point of argument between your opinion on the subject and mine. I cannot ignore the eight years preceding Mullen. We can most certainly do worse, and we've proven it many times.

 

[Sutterkane]

Curious, of those that were not retained, how many made it to a bowl the very next year with a new coach?

 

[was21]

Not for certain. In the ensuing discussion or meetings at the end of the year, I'd look for some indication that he has the fire in the belly to go forward. It might be an intangible gut feeling that I'd be looking for. In addition, he would be asked pointed questions about the special teams situation and how he feels about the difficulty as he sees it as far as recruiting at State and if there's anything he would like to see changed. I'd also be certain that I thought I had a better replacement in mind that I know for certain would take the job. As far as the latter is concerned, if I didn't then Dan would get another year.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

It's not "my" math. It's just math. His winning percentage right now is .550. Our historical winning percentage prior to his arrival is .498 on the field. You subtract .550-.498. That gives you the difference of .052. To calculate the percentage you take the difference .052 and divide it by our historic win percentage .498. That number is .104. Multiply .104 by 100 and you get his percentage of 10.4% as of today.

To be honest though that would not be an offical number because officially our winning percentage was .482. That makes his percentage 14.1% and since that percentage is higher, ranks above Petrino and right below Richt, I'm sure you will reject that number even though it would be the one used by the NCAA.

He is in line with the other coaches, especially Petrino, therefore if they are significantly out performing there teams historical averages then so is he. Even if he goes 4-8 he will still be above our historical average. In fact it would be 5% above using the on field percentage that you would like and officially 8.5% that would be used by the NCAA. And that is still higher than any coach fired in this league since 2011.

For reference at the end of last year his number was 14.2% above the our history on the field and 18% officially.

 

[tuku 2]

Absolutely! I would also invite Katherine Webb to do every commercial on the jumbotron, switch from plastic to paper(so that Mullen 'stays green' during his post-game ****), fire Bracky, bench Dak, switch to Mar-Dan hotdogs and most definitely whoop those "Any Cow of Mine" bitches till they get some more Vallagret cheese back.

 

[engie]

If you assume that its virtually automatic that MSU can replicate Mullen's level of success with any coach, then you can make a valid argument for his being fired. What do we have to lose?

It's not "virtually impossible" -- it's just a 50/50 proposition. In reality, I'd say it's probably a 25% chance we would do better -- a 50% chance we'd do the same -- and a 25% chance we'd do worse. But that's just my opinion. He's slightly above our all-time average -- but his "reality" is different than our history has been as well -- both financially and in the powerhouse that is the SEC lifting all boats.

 

[Maroonlegacy]

There has actually be a study that looked at the numbers, which showed that mediocre teams who fire coaches based on performance tend to do worse than similarly situated teams who do not fire coaches.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/featur...-record-football-teams-after-coaching-changes

Ok. Serious question...You have to be Dan, Dan's wife, or Dan's baby's momma from Indiana. Which is it?

 

[Maroonlegacy]

I think I see the problem, you are looking at MSU like MSU is Alabama. If you see teams that are 4-4 or 3-5 in the SEC and play in bowl games as "cupcakes" that we should be able to chalk up as wins, then I'm afraid you are a fan of the wrong school.

p.s. I didn't realize that Meyer was done. That must be his twin brother at OSU.

p.p.s. Since we are looking at what teams did in the following season, I really like our win over Auburn last year. That has turned out to be a win over a top ten team. And that win over Georgia looks pretty good, too. They went 10-4 and finished #19 the following year.

p.p.p.s. What if we did fire Mullen and hire Hudspeth? If Hudspeth accomplishes anything in his first three years, it would be with Mullen's players. Would that mean Hudspeth couldn't rely on anything he'd done in justifying his continued employment?

Incorrect. I am looking at MSU like we have potential and can do better. I am not looking through loser glasses (no offense to you). I'll give Dan credit for those wins, but lets not get carried away.
Who knew that when Dan beat an average UGA team at home in 2010, that win would save his job in 2013 after winning 5 games?

Meyer was done at Florida. He left a dumpster fire.

Grasp on to whatever straws you want, but trumpeting 3 wins against average teams from 4 and 5 years ago means absolutely jack squat. What big win can Mullen hang his hat on from the last 3 years?


Its a double edge sword. Saban took Shula's players and won. He also took his players and won big. Mullen wins a few with Crooms guys, and wins none with his guys. I think Id take the risk on Hud. Everybody knows how this show is going to end with Mullen at the helm. You can continue to stick you head in the sand or you can wake up and demand better.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Yes!

As long as I see that our guys are still fighting, which I questioned at one point.

So, we have only beaten Tenn., Fla. Ga., Auburn, Om, Arky, Ky, under DM, we have played most of the rest hard.

One of the main things that matters to me, besides W/L is do we play hard. When that truly falls off, time to move on.

 

[121Josey]

My problem is with the concept that we could "slip further into mediocrity." If you look at Mullen's tenure, he did not take a program that was better than mediocre and "slip into mediocrity."

We had one winning season the previous 9 years before Mullen, and we only had 5 wins that one season we had a winning record.

Bama or LSU can worry about "slipping into mediocrity," but the AD at MSU has to worry about the substantial possibility that we could slip into prolonged obscurity.

State hired Croom. State could have done a lot better. Besides coaching, the difference is that Croom ran off the talent. Mullen kept the talent.

Mediocrity is 5-7 wins a year. Winter's coming.

 

[121Josey]

Mullen beat top 25 Ole Miss his first year, Georgia his second year, top 25 Florida his second year, two bowl games, and a bunch of bottom half SEC teams. It may be semantics, but I don't consider any SEC team a cupcake.

Does Georgia or Florida scare you right now. If we lined up today, regardless of where it is played, I don't see how State doesn't win by at least a TD. That's Georgia/Florida 2010

 

[121Josey]

Ask yourself this: How many times has an AD/Fan Base asked themselves 'Should he get another year' and the answer 5 or 10 years later turn out to be 'yes, glad we held onto him'.

Mark Richt, maybe?

I would say that 90% of the time, the guy usually doesn't work out.

Right. It's the dreaded "vote of confidence."

How Mark Richt wasn't such a great guy off the field, there's no way he keeps his job the past five years (and that's with a trip to ATL).

 

[121Josey]

...I'm with Cadaver here. In every season but 2010 we have under performed. We are doing it again. I've seen enough.

This raises a very important question: Did State underperform in 2010? I'm happy with the way it played out, but there was some left on the table (Auburn and UPigg).

And yeah, State has increased it's stadium. But I don't feel any more confident in a game played at DWS than on the road.

 

[121Josey]

I disagree. For me...

1) The first 7 games last year pretty much sucked. Message board jockeys argued about whether we were just holding back or if we really sucked. Everyone wanted to believe that we were holding back. Alabama and every team after confirmed that we sucked.

2) That means that we are in year 2 of suckitude. Regardless of W/L, it just FEELS terrible watching us flounder for 2 straight years.

Year 2 of suckitude? What about 2011? State was ranked as high as #16 @AU. Somebody thought State should have done well. State ended 7-6.

 

[cheewgumm]

I could really care less
about the percentages and what is " likely" to happen. I know if we got a coach that could only win 4 I would not look back fondly to the good ole days and dream about beating Kentucky. I'd just fire that guy...NEXT!!!! You act like we have something to lose. News flash... We don't. Keep trying until you find one that works.


l

Those percentages are not correct Engie. If you take .540-.501=.039. .309/.501=.0778x100=7.78%. Of course the .501 would not be accurate to use because you are using his own record against him. You have use our historical number before he started. Not now. The actual percentage is 8.4% above our historical number prior to his arrival if he finishes 5-7. For reference if we were to fire him compared to all the coaches fired in this league since 2011, Mullen, Petrino and Chizik would be the only three fired that were on the positive side against the schools historic percentage. Petrino 12.7%, Mullen 8.4%, Chizik 1.28%. As of today Mullen percentage is 10.4%. If we go 6-6 his percentage is 11.6%. In fact of the 19 coaches that have coached in this league since 2011, he ranks 9th right now right below Petrino. Saban was 17.1%, Richt was 16.3%, Franklin 17.2%, before last weeks games and are the ones right above Mullen.

Historically, when dealing with bottom tier schools, you will find only a couple of times that the school actually fired a coach who was on positive side against their win percentage. Their predecessor never did better. In this league the last time it happened was Cutcliff. The coach that followed Mike Price at Washington State was around .500 and just barely over the schools number. Fired after five years and his predecessor did worse. Although I completely agree they did right because other than the first year taking over for Price in which he won 10 games he did nothing after that and that season inflated his numbers. Then you have to go back and look at coaches who left on there own. You have some better results there, Gundy after Miles is one off the top of my head. I'm on my phone and don't have all my research but I can't think of really any others that have followed a 4-6 year guy with as much success as he has had and even equaled it, much less better it. Maybe Stewart after Rich Rod at West Virginia although their in a much better place historically then us.

When I said best case scenario I meant in the sense that the odds are very slim that they do. Probably should have stated that better.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

And I could careless what your opinion is. Show me where your thinking has has worked. Because there are examples of men with similar results in their first 5 years and they continue to get better. And yeah people will care if the next one only wins 4 games next year.

 

[cheewgumm]

Because you can find a example of people getting better after 5 wins doesn't prove its gonna happen. He'll I thought your whole premise was historically we never do that, so odds are it's not gonna happen with Mullen .

Our fans are too smart by half sometimes .

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I'm not talking about getting better with just the 5 wins. I mean over his entire career here still getting better.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I'm not talking about getting better with just the 5 wins. I mean over his entire career here still getting better. Winning at a better percentage than what it is now over his entire career.

 

[cheewgumm]

My question for everyone would be what is you Mendoza line? When would you pull the plug? Is it strictly based on deviation for the mean?

If we win 5 this year and 6 next yr, does he stay?

For me that's a negative.

 

[Philly Dawg]

Did Dan's dog **** in your yard?

 

[Joe Schmedlap]

**

Only if the extension doesn't increase the buy out at all. Dan has yet to prove he deserved his last raise, so no further money down this well until he shows me something. In my viewpoint, he's got one more year to prove he can handle the job.

 

[MaronMatters]

It's not "my" math. It's just math. His winning percentage right now is .550. Our historical winning percentage prior to his arrival is .498 on the field. You subtract .550-.498. That gives you the difference of .052. To calculate the percentage you take the difference .052 and divide it by our historic win percentage .498. That number is .104. Multiply .104 by 100 and you get his percentage of 10.4% as of today. To be honest though that would not be an offical number because officially our winning percentage was .482. That makes his percentage 14.1% and since that percentage is higher, ranks above Petrino and right below Richt, I'm sure you will reject that number even though it would be the one used by the NCAA. He is in line with the other coaches, especially Petrino, therefore if they are significantly out performing there teams historical averages then so is he. Even if he goes 4-8 he will still be above our historical average. In fact it would be 5% above using the on field percentage that you would like and officially 8.5% that would be used by the NCAA. And that is still higher than any coach fired in this league since 2011.For reference at the end of last year his number was 14.2% above the our history on the field and 18% officially.

Good Lord, I'm tired of people comparing MSU's past to what Mullen has done. "Ermergerd just look at the past!!! Mullenz is a miracle worker!!1!!" It's the past, and I don't think it's any secret that our athletic department has never been a real proactive bunch when it comes to football. What's wrong with thinking we can do much better? Can we not learn from the atrocious decisions within the AD in the past and aim a little higher?

 

[Strike.sixpack]

You do know that I wasn't the one who brought that into this discussion and it was originally being used to show why Mullen should go. Right? Showing the numbers has nothing to do with being satisfied and not wanting a successful program. It was showing where he is and where other coaches in the league are in comparison to their schools. Schools with the history we would like ours to emulate. You might not like the fact it shows he is closer to Saban, Petrino at Arkansas, Richt, Pinkle, in the percentage but that is where he is. I have formed my opinion not based on our history but by looking at similar schools that have increased to a level that I believe most on here would like for this school. A school that averages 8 wins a year with a 10-11 win season coming along every 4 years or so and accepting that we will have down years like every school. But the average stays around 8 wins. Those schools have not accomplished this by changing coaches every 4-5 years nor by getting rid of a coach that after one down year is still above 10% their historical number.

If you have read this whole thread I answered the original question of this post and even gave an example of what would cause me to even consider firing him this year. But it hasn't happened yet.

 

[J. Noble Daggett]

For 2.5 million bucks

Just to offer the other side of the coin, sometimes getting your butt kicked for an entire season can light a fire under a coach's *** so maybe giving Mullen another shot would not be a bad thing.

a fire should be lit 24/7/365.