In the BCS Championsip Game I'm hoping for......
- Thread starter cheewgumm
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It'll be Alabama vs Notre Dame ... if they can beat USC. If not ... Alabama and Oregon.
I don't think Georgia has a chance of beating Alabama in the SEC championship game.
I don't think Georgia has a chance of beating Alabama in the SEC championship game.
As much as I dislike Alabama, I want to see them play Notre Dame and beat them badly. Or Oregon, if that's the way things work out. The SEC has no peers.
I think LSU is done. I guess it could happen IF; ND gets blown out by 7-3 USC, UF loses to FSU in a very close game and FSU loses in the ACC champ game, and Oregon loses to Oregon St or in the PAC12 champ. game. Crazy things happen at this time of year, but I don't see all of that coming together. That said, it would be absolutely hilarious to me to have an exact rematch of last years NC game simply because the rest of the country would go into foaming siezures of rage.
Oregon isn't playing in the Pac 12 Championship game, so they're probably out. Stanford only has 1 conference loss and the tiebreaker.
The national title game will be the Alabama/Georgia winner vs. Notre Dame, and if Notre Dame loses, it will be the Alabama/Georgia winner vs. the Florida/Florida State winner.
If Florida State beats Florida but loses the ACC Championship Game (unlikely), I guess it could revert back to Kansas State, if they beat Texas.
The national title game will be the Alabama/Georgia winner vs. Notre Dame, and if Notre Dame loses, it will be the Alabama/Georgia winner vs. the Florida/Florida State winner.
If Florida State beats Florida but loses the ACC Championship Game (unlikely), I guess it could revert back to Kansas State, if they beat Texas.
I think Kansas State and possibly a 1-loss Notre Dame (depending on voters' mood) would be ahead of a 2-loss LSU at that point. But if Kansas State loses to Texas, Oregon loses to Oregon State, Clemson loses to South Carolina (maybe not necessary), it's slightly possible.
I just want to see a SEC team destroy Notre Dame. Any SEC team. I don't care which one. It will be beautiful.
i think notre dame loses at usc. it'll be alabama vs. florida state i think. oregon won't survive oregon state, remember, they have alot of injuries. earlier i would have given georgia a chance to beat bama but they are too beat up too. tech may give them a game.
I am pulling for a UF-UGA rematch. I think both teams are ridiculously over-rated, and I don't even think UF will beat FSU this weekend, but I will LMFAO if they can crawl their way into the title game. A second SEC rematch, and with two completely different teams. The nationwide crying will get hilarious, and I especially would want to meet the Oregon fan who had the "SEC YA" sign at gameday yesterday.
I have already posted that I believe the SEC teams are stupidly over-rated this year, and I'm not backing down from that. I don't think we will have an all SEC title game, I just think it would be hilarious if it happened. I personally would still have Oregon and K. State in the top 5, and I would rank FSU ahead of Florida. Texas A&M would not be in my Top 10, and South Carolina would not be in my top 15.
I have already posted that I believe the SEC teams are stupidly over-rated this year, and I'm not backing down from that. I don't think we will have an all SEC title game, I just think it would be hilarious if it happened. I personally would still have Oregon and K. State in the top 5, and I would rank FSU ahead of Florida. Texas A&M would not be in my Top 10, and South Carolina would not be in my top 15.
No part of this written in stone yet. Remember, they both still have a 9th conference game, which is rivalry games for each. Oregon get Oregon State and Stanford gets UCLA. Both should be very tough matchups.
Not so sure that FSU will beat Florida. Florida looked like crap at the start of the season but they've improved immensely. And FSU lost to who ... NC State? Not exactly a powerhouse. And they've had some pretty poor performances the rest of their year. Remember, they don't play an SEC schedule ... it's basically full of cupcakes.
Ga Tech is terrible, but better after they fired their DC. I don't think they're good enough to beat Georgia but they have one thing going for them ... to them, the rivalry is a lot more intense than it is for Georgia. Georgia will be by far the best team they play this year.
And I kinda think that ND will beat USC and I hope so for Kiffin's sake. Isn't USC's QB hurt? That's always an intense game though so you never know. Back in the days of B&W television those two played one of the two or three best games I've ever seen. If I recall correctly ND came back from a huge deficit and beat the Bruins.
Look for Alabama vs ND in the BCS championship game.
Ga Tech is terrible, but better after they fired their DC. I don't think they're good enough to beat Georgia but they have one thing going for them ... to them, the rivalry is a lot more intense than it is for Georgia. Georgia will be by far the best team they play this year.
And I kinda think that ND will beat USC and I hope so for Kiffin's sake. Isn't USC's QB hurt? That's always an intense game though so you never know. Back in the days of B&W television those two played one of the two or three best games I've ever seen. If I recall correctly ND came back from a huge deficit and beat the Bruins.
Look for Alabama vs ND in the BCS championship game.
The SEC is overrated this year, but Bama, A&M, and LSU when they are playing well are still on par with Oregon (the healthy version). Then UF and UGA are probably on par with KState and Notre Dame, and the rest of the pretenders, although UF is obviously hit or miss b/c they rely so much on defense and special teams. USCe was a top 15 team when healthy.
That's still 5 teams that could compete for a national championship with the right schedule and if there was an 8 team playoff, the chances of an All SEC championship game would be pretty decent and we'd likely have at least 2 if not 3 of the semi-final teams. The only reason the SEC is overrated is because the expectations are so lofty. It's not like last year where there really wasn't anybody that was within reasonable upset distance of Bama or LSU, but the SEC is still head and shoulders above the next conference. And is probably stronger this year if you look 5 deep, whereas last year would have been much stronger looking 3 deep.
Don't count out UCLA. They can still beat Stanford which will throw the ducks into the conference championship given they beat Oregon State.
Oh, the SEC is undoubtedly the strongest conference, but the polls have taken that to a ridiculous extreme and are over-rating the individual teams. The SEC is not playing any good out of conference teams, but all of the teams are being given strong strength of schedule because they are playing other SEC teams. It is a circular logic spun out of control.
While the SEC's top 6 could dominate the top 6 of any other conference, we are exceptionally weak at the other end of the standings. In the past, the real beauty of the SEC was the strength top to bottom, and the idea that even playing the mid or lower level SEC teams was a tough outing. This year, though, not one of the lower 8 teams has managed to score an upset over the top 6 teams. We have 3 teams that are yet to win a conference game, and 3 more teams that are unlikely to be bowl eligible. That is 6 teams with 7 or more losses, which puts the conference on par with C-USA. And the other two teams, Vandy and MSU, have not beaten a team with a winning record.
Texas A&M just waltzed through a 3 game road trip in the SEC unscathed. That's ridiculous, and demonstrates just how weak the conference has become.
I don't have any problem with Alabama being #2, but UGA and UF would get blown off the field by Oregon and KSU. I think FSU is extremely under-rated, but I guess we will find out Saturday. I'm not sure I would rank LSU above Oklahoma. Texas A&M does not belong in the top 10, and USC does not belong in the Top 15.
While the SEC's top 6 could dominate the top 6 of any other conference, we are exceptionally weak at the other end of the standings. In the past, the real beauty of the SEC was the strength top to bottom, and the idea that even playing the mid or lower level SEC teams was a tough outing. This year, though, not one of the lower 8 teams has managed to score an upset over the top 6 teams. We have 3 teams that are yet to win a conference game, and 3 more teams that are unlikely to be bowl eligible. That is 6 teams with 7 or more losses, which puts the conference on par with C-USA. And the other two teams, Vandy and MSU, have not beaten a team with a winning record.
Texas A&M just waltzed through a 3 game road trip in the SEC unscathed. That's ridiculous, and demonstrates just how weak the conference has become.
I don't have any problem with Alabama being #2, but UGA and UF would get blown off the field by Oregon and KSU. I think FSU is extremely under-rated, but I guess we will find out Saturday. I'm not sure I would rank LSU above Oklahoma. Texas A&M does not belong in the top 10, and USC does not belong in the Top 15.
I think you're badly wrong about A&M. I think Oregon could cause them real problems because I think they're good enough on offense that A&M would have trouble matching up. But everyone else in the top five non-sect teams I think A&M can score on and even though they are not as strong top to bottom on defense, they still have enough playmakers to be disruptive. They might get into shootouts, but I think they would win. The only way to slow down A&M is to have DL ahtletic enough to keep up with Manziel or DL good enough to go with a 3-4. I don't think you'll find that outside of the SEC.
UGA I am still not sure about, but I think you're underrating UF. UF is like an extreme of the typical LSU team, with an offense bad enough that they could lose to almost anybody, but a D good enough that they can beat almost anybody. If Oregon and UF played ten times, I definitely think Oregon would get some blowout wins, but I think the overall win-loss record would be reasonably close. I'm just not going to believe Oregon will blow the doors off any good SEC team until they score against an SEC team that is strong on D across the board.
Alabama has demonstrated just how unprepared SEC teams are for a good, up tempo, spread offense. If A&M can score 3 TDs on Bama in 1 quarter, then I have no doubt Oregon, KSU, and a few other teams could do so as well. That said, if Bama was playing 1 of those teams in the championship game, I trust Saban and Smart to use their 4 weeks to devise a pretty good defensive scheme.
As for a defense that could stop A&M.....try Stanford. The Aggies have caught the SEC unprepared. If they were still in the Big XII, I don't think they would finish higher than 3rd, at best. I also think this will be the best season of Manziel's career, as SEC defenses start to adjust.
As for a defense that could stop A&M.....try Stanford. The Aggies have caught the SEC unprepared. If they were still in the Big XII, I don't think they would finish higher than 3rd, at best. I also think this will be the best season of Manziel's career, as SEC defenses start to adjust.
This is a common misconception on determining SOS, as purported by the rest of the country outside the southeast. It doesn't work how you've been led to believe.
Most of the SOS metrics out there(all of the ones used in BCS computer rankings) are mathematically unbiased and determined by the win percentage of your opponents and the win percentage of your opponents' opponents, not on some preconceived bias about how good those teams are. The weighting given to each of these factors are what causes the fluctuations that you see in different SOS metrics.
This is a good read on the matter, since essentially RPI is 75% made up by SOS: http://www.pgcbasketball.com/the-madness-of-march-understanding-the-rpi/
Yeah none of those teams on that 3 game road trip had any film on us from earlier in the year... So I guess you are saying that Stanford's D is better than Bama's huh?? I guess we will just have to finish 3rd in the West and 5th overall in the SEC this year... Why would we finish "3rd at best in the Big XII-2-2+1+1 aka the Big WTF??? you think those teams would have a better ability to prepare for our new coach, new scheme, new QB than the SEC teams that are the best in the nation??? your logic is way flawed man...
That is not my misconception, I totally understand how SOS is measured. The SEC currently has 6 teams with just 1 or 2 losses, and that raises everyone's SOS. My point is that those winning records were built by playing crappy non conference schedules, and because the SEC has 4 or 5 really bad teams (which, for some odd reason, does not hurt everyone's SOS as badly as the good records helps them out).
No, you are just making unsubstantiated assumptions. I don't think Stanford's defense is better than Alabama's, but they are better prepared for the up tempo spread attack right now. They play Oregon every year. In the past, they have had the ability to defend Oregon for a half, but then they got worn out and Oregon took it to them in the second half. This year they kept it together and won the game.
If you think A&M's offense is better than Oregon's than you are way too biased to have a rational discussion.
Players and coaches need to see these spread offenses on a more regular basis to be fully prepared for them. The offenses are not that complicated; you just have to recognize the formations and get all the assignments right. But if you have not experienced the offenses along with the up tempo approach, then it is very difficult to be fully prepared for it.
UF, LSU and Bama all struggled defending the Aggies in the first half. They made halftime adjustments and then managed quite well defensively. MSU preformed the same against Rich Rod's Michigan squad in the 2010 Gator Bowl; they panicked for the first 2 or 3 possesions, and then everyone started playing their assignments.
UMiss and A&M are benefiting from the SEC's lack of of experience with this offensively style. The Big XII would not be caught quite so off guard. They see up tempo spread offenses all the time, and many of them played against Houston when Sumlin's offense was in full force. So, yeah, I think A&M would be behind KSU and Oklahoma, and would have its hands full playing OSU, WVU, Tech, Texas and maybe even Baylor.
I wasn't making a claim about the mathematical formulae, I just find it kind of curious. The SEC strengths of schedule are inflated by playing SEC teams with only 1 or 2 losses, but they don't seem to get deflated when they play poor SEC teams. I guess the answer always comes back to the non-conference schedules. Even as crappy as UK is, they still have 2 wins, and one of those wins is over 10-1 Kent State. And Auburn at least played Clemson. But, hey, the computers get what they get....I was really criticizing the human polls.
While ...
Point to State's weak schedule; no one in the SEC has played a weaker slate than Georgia. No Bama, LSU or Tx A&M. They are playing well and won't lose to Ga Tech BUT will be handled easily by Bama.
Buffalo
@Missouri
Florida Atl
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
South Carolina L35-7
@Kentucky
Florida* W17-9
Ole Miss
@Auburn
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Point to State's weak schedule; no one in the SEC has played a weaker slate than Georgia. No Bama, LSU or Tx A&M. They are playing well and won't lose to Ga Tech BUT will be handled easily by Bama.
Buffalo
@Missouri
Florida Atl
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
South Carolina L35-7
@Kentucky
Florida* W17-9
Ole Miss
@Auburn
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Ah, gotcha. I think the human polls see what most do: at this point there's 5 SEC teams that would beat teams ranked 10 and above at least 2 out of 3 games, and if Lattimore hadn't gotten injured, 6 SEC teams.
That's partially the strength of the conference and partially the suckitude of several other conferences this year.
The discussion would look at least a little different if Ohio State weren't on probation, and could change if SoCar or UF lose to their rivals.
That's partially the strength of the conference and partially the suckitude of several other conferences this year.
The discussion would look at least a little different if Ohio State weren't on probation, and could change if SoCar or UF lose to their rivals.
Florida's offense is dog crap and FSU has SEC-level talent on defense..
Even in the game they lost, they only gave up 17 points and the last 7 came at the very end. FSU only lost bc Jimbo Fisher did what he does.. be too conservative and think his defense will win the game single-handedly
Even in the game they lost, they only gave up 17 points and the last 7 came at the very end. FSU only lost bc Jimbo Fisher did what he does.. be too conservative and think his defense will win the game single-handedly
With Barkley, USC beats ND by 10-14 pts
without him, who knows.. Kiffin (and their penchant for untimely turnovers) is the only one that can hold them under 30 points.
without him, who knows.. Kiffin (and their penchant for untimely turnovers) is the only one that can hold them under 30 points.
This might be the biggest WTF of your whole position on this. K-State who got murdered in every facet of the game by a 4-5 Baylor team would be in your top 5? How? They have 2 wins over current top 25 teams (OU & OSU). FSU's lone win over a ranked team was Clemson. Very few of the rest of the teams they have played even have a winning record. UF has beaten USCe, aTm, & LSU. Their lone loss was to one loss UGA. You have gone off the deep end with the logic for your position.