In this thread we discuss truths

[bulldoghair]

nm

 

[Doubledawgblitz]

A good DC will cost $2.5M

What does a bad one cost? i.e. Lost revenue, fan apathy, less State fans in the seats m, etc...

 

[The Peeper]

Because it has mostly to do with our offense. I’m not saying we are the 85 Bears by no means. But I am saying our defense is the best example of tempo-induced cardiac drift in modern college football. The laws of human biology win. Lebby’s offense creates a physiological drift in the defense’s performance, leading to late-game breakdowns.
We’re top-50 1H points allowed at 15.2 PPG, but drift in 2H with Q4 the worst: 11.7 PPG allowed (#133 nat’l, worst Power 4), with 7.1 YPP conceded (vs. 4.5 1H).

Use all the analytics you want, I'm just saying we are a bunch of bad news bears on defense that can't find our asses with both hands behind our back and continue to give up long drives on multiple plays

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

There’s an old saying about it aint the X’s and O’s but the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s
In our case right now, we have neither !

 

[bulldoghair]

Use all the analytics you want, I'm just saying we are a bunch of bad news bears on defense that can't find our asses with both hands behind our back and continue to give up long drives on multiple plays

State’s defense ranks #42 nationally in first-half points allowed, surrendering an average of 15.2 points per first half. This places them 4th in the SEC.

 

[saltybulldog]

I like where you’re going with this thread and what you’ve laid out here - no argument from me.

The real truth is &tate is not a serious football program.

@Maroon Eagle can speak more for this fanbase with regard to “the truth”

Agree. We are not a serious program. I don’t blame coaches or AD. It’s systemic. Alumni, boosters, President…all the way thru.

Can we be serious again. I’m sure it’s possible. Just not likely until a lot of changes are made.

 

[onewoof]

Agree. We are not a serious program. I don’t blame coaches or AD. It’s systemic. Alumni, boosters, President…all the way thru.

Can we be serious again. I’m sure it’s possible. Just not likely until a lot of changes are made.

We just have to find a few dozen alumni that don't mind burning through millions for no reason other than 12-13 entertaining football games.

 

[Villagedawg]

The Florida game was my crash out game. That's when I knew we are being led by fools.

Yep. I was beside myself in disbelief at the Florida game. Absolutely incredulous. It didn’t get any better as the games stacked up.

 

[AT4 Dawg]

State’s defense ranks #42 nationally in first-half points allowed, surrendering an average of 15.2 points per first half. This places them 4th in the SEC.

You’re providing solid intel here. I sincerely mean that-you clearly are well informed and have shined a light on areas like this that I was unaware of.

But last time I checked, we play 2 halves of football each Saturday.

 

[Mr. Cook]

But last time I checked, we play 2 halves of football each Saturday.

…which was clearly evidenced in the Texas game.

 

[POTUS]

We just have to find a few dozen alumni that don't mind burning through millions for no reason other than 12-13 entertaining football games.

Somehow everyone else has managed to do that .

 

[Captain Ron]

State’s defense ranks #42 nationally in first-half points allowed, surrendering an average of 15.2 points per first half. This places them 4th in the SEC.

How many sacks did we average in the first half in SEC play?

 

[The Peeper]

State’s defense ranks #42 nationally in first-half points allowed, surrendering an average of 15.2 points per first half. This places them 4th in the SEC.

And we have 1 conference win in two years, where does that "place them in the SEC" analytics?

 

[bulldoghair]

You’re providing solid intel here. I sincerely mean that-you clearly are well informed and have shined a light on areas like this that I was unaware of.

But last time I checked, we play 2 halves of football each Saturday.

-24% fade in 2H. from 1H average. This isn’t random bad luck—it’s a predictable regression driven by the “tempo boomerang” from Jeff Lebby’s offense (#1 nationally seconds per play, and number of plays)- also #1 in SEC in three-and-outs. It’s not merely a talent or coaching issue, it’s quick return overload and snap-volume-creep (SEC #1, #3 nat’l). Flying early… but returns kill technique ect. It’s predictable physics.

 

[bulldoghair]

And we have 1 conference win in two years, where does that "place then in the SEC" analytics?

Jeff Lebby’s offensive boomerang effect = defense rank #133 nationally (out of 134 FBS teams) in fourth-quarter points allowed per game = 1-15 in conference.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

-24% fade in 2H. from 1H average. This isn’t random bad luck—it’s a predictable regression driven by the “tempo boomerang” from Jeff Lebby’s offense (#1 nationally seconds per play, and number of plays)- also #1 in SEC in three-and-outs. It’s not merely a talent or coaching issue, it’s quick return overload and snap-volume-creep (SEC #1, #3 nat’l). Flying early… but returns kill technique ect. It’s predictable physics.

So, you're saying.....Lebby should just pump the brakes a little?

Are there any analytics to measure the advantages of an up tempo offense? I understand keeping the defense on its heels and preventing them from subbing, but is there any evidence that we have benefitted from it?

 

[bulldoghair]

How many sacks did we average in the first half in SEC play?

1.3 per half (10.4 total) (#4 SEC)

 

[Perd Hapley]

Somehow everyone else has managed to do that .

Well, not everyone. Still a lot of folks on the struggle bus. But we’re certainly one of them.

It’s also worth noting the following about Ole Miss. They lost 8 NFL draft picks, including a first round QB. Their highest projected NFL pick this year is Senterine Perkins - a linebacker - who is projected as only a 4th rounder. They aren’t that talented. Those teams that Hugh Freeze built in 2016-2017 that went 5-7 / 6-6 were far, far more loaded than this year’s Ole Miss team.

They found a backup RB from Mizzou and a starting QB from a D2 school, and they are vying for a Top 4 seed in the CFP. Great coaching can still cover up a lot of deficiencies, if you can find it. Good coaching can cover up enough to at least get you in that 7-5 / 8-4 range. We currently have neither.

 

[She Mate Me]

Coleman Hutzler, who was a special teams assistant when hired as State's defensive coordinator has had a defense that has given up 500 yards six times in 24 games (25%). In 15 of the 24 games he has coached our defense, we have given up 400+ yards.

While we did improve from 2 to 5 wins, we really did not improve all that much. We won 1 SEC game over a team playing with an interim coach who will likely end up 0-8 tomorrow.

The Arizona State defensive coordinator making a really bad call gave this team the illusion of being better than last year.

Throwing out the FCS and G5 games.

Arizona State. Went from -7 to +4. Improvement but ASU is worse than last year.
Florida. Went from -17 to -2. Improvement but Florida is worse than last year
Texas. Went from -22 to -7. Improvement but Texas is worse than last year
Arkansas. Went from -23 to +3. Improvement but Arkansas is worse than last year
Tennessee. Went from -19 to -7. Improvement but Tennessee is worse than last year

Missouri. Went from -19 to -22. Mizzou is basically even with last year

Georgia. Went from -10 to -20. but UGA is better than last year
Texas A&M. Went from -10 to -22. but A&M is better than last year
Ole Miss. Went from -12 to -19. but Ole Miss is better than last year

Did we actually improve? or did five teams on our schedule get worse? With the exception of a bad Florida team, we gave up 31+ points in every SEC game we played. We did the same thing last year.

We beat USM instead of losing to Toledo and caught ASU with their pants down. We didn't improve.

Ya know, there are many, many data driven computer rating systems that could have saved you a lot of research and typing.

It's clear we're improved from truly terrible to an average FBS team, which is a really bad SEC team. It's just a question of whether you think this guy can continue to improve us.

I was optimistic early, but the Mizzou game put the nail in the coffin of my optimism. He'll have another year. I hope he shocks me.

I doubt it.

 

[bulldoghair]

So, you're saying.....Lebby should just pump the brakes a little?

Are there any analytics to measure the advantages of an up tempo offense? I understand keeping the defense on its heels and preventing them from subbing, but is there any evidence that we have benefited from it?

The bad most definitely outweighs the good, as I have been pointing out or bringing attention too. Any good is actually fools gold for us. And most people are fooled by fools gold. Lebby’s approach can only be good when married to elite depth, elite NIL, and (elite third-down efficiency). Neither of which he has here at State. Otherwise his scheme will break the roster before the roster breaks opponents, and becomes offensive and defensive self inflicting suicide. It’s not that any tempo is bad. It’s that this exact version of tempo here at State is a luxury car that we can’t afford to insure. Lebby’s overall scheme and philosophy is not a fit for an underdog in today’s college football structure.

 

[Ranchdawg]

Well, not everyone. Still a lot of folks on the struggle bus. But we’re certainly one of them.

It’s also worth noting the following about Ole Miss. They lost 8 NFL draft picks, including a first round QB. Their highest projected NFL pick this year is Senterine Perkins - a linebacker - who is projected as only a 4th rounder. They aren’t that talented. Those teams that Hugh Freeze built in 2016-2017 that went 5-7 / 6-6 were far, far more loaded than this year’s Ole Miss team.

They found a backup RB from Mizzou and a starting QB from a D2 school, and they are vying for a Top 4 seed in the CFP. Great coaching can still cover up a lot of deficiencies, if you can find it. Good coaching can cover up enough to at least get you in that 7-5 / 8-4 range. We currently have neither.

Correction, a great OL and DL can cover up a lot of talent discrepancies at other positions. They shredded us on their first two drives because we had no pressure on their QB. After that we added to the box. The difference in the SEC is line play. We need talented linemen and a new DC. Hutzler has had 2 seasons and failed.