Interesing info on the BP disaster... first hand (probably will get locked).

[missouridawg]

And so far, my expertise is in thru-tubing mud motors and composite bridge plugs. I very rarely get involved in off-shore stuff, even though my company participates heavily out there. Fortunately, none of our hands were on BP rig at the time...<div>
</div><div>Another tidbit I heard, which you would understand... is that the actual explosion occurred as they displaced the drilling mud in the riser over to sea water... which obviously makes a ton of sense when you look at hydrostatic calculations. </div><div>
</div><div>I still can't figure out what happened to the BOPs though.</div>

 

[KennyB]

I personally do not think the actuators were sized correctly. They may have been sized to close the BOP under normal wellbore pressure, but I don't think they were sized sufficiently to close the BOP under a blowout situation.

KennyB
www.fishingmgc.net

 

[brantleyjones]

where they'll be headed now, via government fiat, and the brutal lesson of experience.

What they've been doing has worked for 41 years. Lessons learned.

It will drive up drilling costs in the US, which will result in fewer wells being drilled, but no company can absorb what's about to happen to BP more than once. Most, not at all.

 

[missouridawg]

I think the technology out there would be capable of hitting the current well, but it would have to be PERFECT calculations. However, even if you were to hit the bullseye and breach the current cement/casing of the wellbore, you'd still have a helatious time getting pressure integrity from one wellbore to the other. Without that integrity, you'll still have bypass to the current wellbore.

<div>
</div>

 

[Optimus Prime 4]

full of seemingly accurate information, good questions and way too much level-headedness.

 

[brantleyjones]

..what BP has planned, nor have I drilled a relief well. However, that's how I understand it's been done in the past. 30+ years of well control school and you study a lot of case histories, and hear a lot more stories. The 3 months to drill it leads me to this too.

They'll use a Mag Range to try to actually hit the current wellbore, since prodcution casing is in place. Getting really close is good enough. They'll then try to frac the formation to establish communication with the current wellbore, which is currently (I assume) flowing up the production casing-open hole annulus.. At that point I don't know if they'll try to pump kill weight mud around and kill it, or try to cement it. I've never been that close to the action.

No, I don't think they're being greedy, or trying to save the current well. It's a hydrostatic problem, I believe. The best way to kill a well kick in a drilling well is from bottom. I'm sure the same applies to killing a blowing well from a relief well. Then there's the frac'ing thing. Frac'ing shallow is a very bad idea anywhere, but especially in deep water. They're likely to end up pumping cement into it anyway. They might could save some of the wellbore, but I don't know what size production casing they have run, or how sidetracking would go in a well this deep in this water depth. The cost of what this is going to cost them now is going to dwarf the cost of the original well anyway, and the deeper they have to drill the relief well the more that will cost them.

Again, I've never done this, or been close to a relief well operation. If I still worked for either BP or Wild Well, I'd know, but I couldn't tell you.

The idea in drilling is not to ever have to worry about a relief well, or Oil Spill Containment.

 

[KennyB]

Brantley and Missouri, I appreciate your responses.

KennyB
www.fishingmgc.net

 

[missouridawg]

not all wells produce at a 3 to 1 ratio... but it's easily been seen to do that. I'm marrying a chemical engineer who works on the downhole chemical side... and she's worked on specialty chemicals to help produce less water.<div>
</div><div>Regarding the costs to BP.... I'd go out a limb and say easily that it will reach 10 billion... with a chance to reach 25 or 30 billion after the dust settles (factoring in lost revenue from a producing platform).</div>

 

[missouridawg]

I promise... I'm rooting for this stuff to end ASAP... but in all reality, this is probably going to last well past the All-Star break (now it's sports related!)

 

[FlabLoser]

Stupid f'ing "journalists" don't understand anything they're being told, can't repeat it right,

Doesn't surprise me. It ticks me off when they report BP as being the owner of the rig.

The only dog I've got in this is that I've got some BP stock. I bought more Friday morning. But since then, this has gotten to look a hell of a lot more serious in terms of its cost to BP. Prolly gonna sell out on Monday.

 

[thatsbaseball]

editedto add: and KennyB also.I trust these guys (and just about anybody else) more than I do the media.

 

[Xenomorph]

There WILL be a movie made about the events of the last week and a half and the coming months.

Advice to Missouri and Brantley.... get in touch with a screenwriter. Do some research. Use your contacts and put together a screenplay on this subject while throwing a few coporate execs and politico-types under the bus. Sell it for a few bucks to Fox Searchlight.

You'll be rollin' like Nino Brown.

 

[dawgstudent]

[No message]

 

[Optimus Prime 4]

... they really needed to install more safeguards, but they ran the numbers and figured it was worth the risk not to. Like The Rainmaker with insurance companies. Or one of those books.

 

[neshobadawg]

Did you work in lafayette 1970s to 1990s? I ran well bore surveys, gyros, mult-shots and steering tools for Arco out of Venice. Helped kick-off many wells at the time.

 

[brantleyjones]

South Pass Block 60.

 

[neshobadawg]

Chuck.

 

[brantleyjones]

Somehow I knew that.

How'd you know it was me? Ex-ARCO MSU alumn? My dazzling wealth of knowledge?

 

[neshobadawg]

Just an educated guess. Go Dogs.</p>

 

[eurotrash]

Brief article from a paper in England:

http://www.timesonline.co...ricas/article7112898.ece

 

[studentdawg87]

That has to be one of the most depressing towns in the U.S.

 

[brantleyjones]

...this is the best article that I've read on the disaster yet.

http://www.timesonline.co...ricas/article7113943.ece

Odd that it would come from London. I guess that I should go research the Houston Chronicle and the Times Picayune, instead of trying to follow on Yahoo.

Looks like the BOP failed, but when?

Pretty much f'd after that.

 

[FlabLoser]

[No message]

 

[neshobadawg]

I would spend the night before at our co.apt. in the Quarter-Make it to Venice for chopper or boat ride in the a.m. to South Pass 60 H&P rig,.

 

[brantleyjones]

I've worked for BP. I know what the B stands for. What I meant was that after a week of trying to figure out what was going on in the hysterical American press, I would have to go to the London Times to find an article that actually makes sense, and does a pretty good job of explaining what a BOP stack is in layman's terms. For all of y'all freaking out on the Coast, here's a ray of hope:

http://www.chron.com/disp...izon//6976966.html

The biggest difference is distance from shore. Ixtoc's oil had
weathered a lot more than this well's will have by the time it reaches LA's & MS's coasts.

But, the <span style="font-style: italic;">possibility</span> is there that the media and
environmentalists (and <span style="cursor: pointer; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent;" class="yshortcuts" id="lw_1272767342_1">Bobby Jindal</span>) have blown this somewhat out
of proportion.

If <span style="cursor: pointer; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent;" class="yshortcuts" id="lw_1272767342_2">sandy beaches</span> are the best place for oil to
come ashore, and weathering time is an important factor, the best thing
that could happen, other than the flow just stopping, is for the loop
current to catch the spill, take it out into the Atlantic, and dump it
on the <span style="cursor: pointer; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent;" class="yshortcuts" id="lw_1272767342_3">East coast</span>
of FL. (JK) It also means that the effect on MS's barrier islands <span style="font-style: italic;">may</span> not be as bad as expected.

 

[saltybulldog]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1472

a snap shot....

now appears that the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle coasts will not see significant amounts of oil hitting their shores through at least Monday. On Monday night, the winds shift to southwesterly and weaken as a cold front approaches. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds with then shift to offshore (northwesterly) on Tuesday as the cold front passes. This should blow the oil back out to sea a few miles. It is thus possible that only the Louisiana coast will see oil impacts over the coming seven days, though there is substantial uncertainty in this forecast. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light onshore winds that should allow for slow transport of the oil towards shore. It appears very unlikely that oil will make it into the Loop Current during the next seven days and affect the southern Gulf of Mexico. The long range wind forecast beyond that time is too uncertain to say what might happen at longer time ranges.

While it may not hit the shores, a friend of mine was out today around I-10 and found a pelican that appeared to be covered in oil. He was able to motor up to the bird without it moving. He called one of the rescue lines, so hopefully they can take care of it.

So, while the oil may not get on shore, it will not doubt screw some **** up. I saw a headline that said this would be our Chernobyl. That seems a bit over the top, but it will not just go away either.

 

[FlabLoser]

[No message]

 

[brantleyjones]

on birds. No doubt about that. I also don't know what kind of havoc it will actually wreak in the LA estuaries.

That said, the LA coast has had a LOT of oil washed up on it, although not all at one time as in this disaster. The coast is still there (although shrinking, for other reasons).

From my experience in plugging leaking wells after Katrina, snapper love oil.

It's probably not Chernobyl. It's probably something that none of us will ever forget, but it's also possible that the media, and others, are freaking out a tad more than necessary, for their own agendas. That never happens, right?

 

[FlabLoser]

[No message]

 

[brantleyjones]

Drive to the heliport and catch a chopper, but the drive down was depressing as hell.

It was way worse post Katrina. The place <span style="font-weight: bold;">really</span> looked like ****.

 

[studentdawg87]

It is worse now than it ever was. Love to fish there, but outside of the marinas it seems like a post-apocalyptic wasteland.

 

[FlabLoser]

And by first I mean the first report since the "its not leaking much" reports early in this cluster#*$%&

http://www.sunherald.com/...ects-spill-to-break.html

Gene Taylor says its not bad, will brake up naturally, and we might have to skim a little sludge off the beaches - no big deal.

Wow, so now we've got everything from "no big deal" to "an Exxon Valdez every two days". Since nobody can tell us WTF is happening, I find it hard to believe that any real progress is being made towards stopping this thing.

 

[quickdawg]

oops.

 

[quickdawg]

Do believe he just wrapped up his loss in the November election in a chocolate milk and rainbow colored package.

Other elected officials are all over the place on the disaster, one is even quoted as saying the oil sheen is not toxic and that the marine life will swim away from it. Who said that is left as a google exercise for the reader. Other coast officials feel the Mississippi coast is being targeted for redirection of the oil because sand is 'easier' to clean than marshes. If spreading calm is the intent of those trying to downplay the possible effect, their attempts have backfired (see the comments on the original article).


At any rate, there are a lot of volunteers mobilizing down here which is terrific. But there's conflicting and incomplete information about what kind of training is required to be able to perform different types of clean-up assistance. Seems like right now a 20 minute session of "don't touch the oil" is what's most widely available locally for groups working in tandem with BP on the cleanup.


Back on topic topic, what exactly is in the chemical dispersants they're testing out for use underwater down by the leaks? I'm a (former) engineer, not a chemist, and wonder exactly how fast that oil is exiting the leaks and how quickly that dispersant can encapsulate the oil? Or does the dispersant not encapsulate the oil?

 

[TilloDawg]

I heard a guy on the radio the other day say it was very similar to the one in Mexico a while back that took 9 months to cap...

 

[Optimus Prime 4]

[No message]

 

[downwarddawg]

And by first I mean the first report since the "its not leaking much" reports early in this cluster#*$%&

http://www.sunherald.com/...ects-spill-to-break.html

Gene Taylor says its not bad, will brake up naturally, and we might have to skim a little sludge off the beaches - no big deal.

Wow, so now we've got everything from "no big deal" to "an Exxon Valdez every two days". Since nobody can tell us WTF is happening, I find it hard to believe that any real progress is being made towards stopping this thing.

I won't try to speculate either way as to how bad this will or won't be but just know that the oilwe produce in the Gulf is much different than that being hauled by the Valdez. Our oil in the Gulf is a much "lighter or sweeter" oil. Add that to the fact that it iscoming from 5,000 feet depths. It actually is being somewhat "washed" on it's way to the surface. I work for one of the majors. I talked with some associates on a production platform that was in the slick a few days ago. They told me the smell was very faint and that it wasn't even sticking to the hull columns or any of the boat hulls.I'm not down playing this at all. My Father lives on the Bay of St. Loius. It sucks for everybody. I'm just hoping it won't be near as bad asfirst expected.

 

[quickdawg]

They told me the smell was very faint

I would disagree with that assessment as the smell has been pretty strong down here the past couple of days. There was no mistaking it when you walked outside, but perhaps what is 'strong' for non-oilworker civilians is 'faint' for oilworkers.

 

[downwarddawg]

I have no way of knowing because I'm southwest of the slick. I'm just hoping and praying for everybody that it isn't as bad as we all think it is. I promise my 10 year old I was taking him out to Cat Island when I get home. I hope to make that trip.

 

[quickdawg]

nm