Interesting Mullen vs Saban Records

[92Alum]

Dan Mullen's 5 year MSU record to date 33-25

Nick Saban's 5 year record at Michigan State 34-24-1

Nearly identical for their first major head coaching jobs.

I'm not suggesting Mullen will have the same career success as Saban but it is an interesting stat to consider.

 

[thatsbaseball]

A little more detailed look

1995	Michigan State	6–5–1	4–3–1	5th	L Independence
1996	Michigan State	6–6	5–3	5th	L Sun
1997	Michigan State	7–5	4–4	6th	L Aloha
1998	Michigan State	6–6	4–4	6th
1999	Michigan State	9–2*	6–2	2nd	Invited to Citrus*	9*	9*
Michigan State:	34–24–1	23–16–1	* <small>Saban resigned before bowl game.</small>

<tbody>
</tbody>

While the records are similar it looks like their programs may have been headed in different directions

 

[The Peeper]

The BIGGEST difference you will find is the number of premium assistants that

Saban has pushed into the coaching ranks vs the ones Mullens has been through already. Just the first few that come to mind Torbush, Wilson, Mirando, and Diaz, not very impressed by that list.

 

[KurtRambis4]

It

looks to me as if it's mediocre season, mediocre season, mediocre season, mediocre season, great season. I mean that doesn't really look like it's anything to take note of.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

That's exactly what it was and his seat was getting very warm after year 4 because of some bad losses including the fact he was to be a defensive guru and the defense played bad at times. Gave up late leads to teams they shouldn't have. He did beat Ohio State his 3rd or 4th year which kept it from being hot. Then his last year set up pretty good with a senior laden team. That team was pretty good.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Well any comparison of Saban and Mullen is so silly that it`s not worth "taking note of" but I think most objective people can simply see that in their fifth years of their careers their programs appeared to be headed in different directions.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

To be objective means you have to look at the complete record. He had a good fifth year but he under performed in years 3 & 4. He had a better fifth year than Mullen will but the overall record will be about the same. You know no coaches trajectory is linear and identical. You can do the same for Miles. Two of the best coaches in the league that when they were at schools of similar or actually a little higher standing than us then they won on about the same level. That's all you can say in comparison.

 

[SkullCandy.sixpack]

I do find that interesting. Though it was rightfully pointed out that the programs appeared to be headed in different directions, Saban's worst year appeared to be the one before his breakout year.

Strick's comments yesterday show Dan isn't headed anywhere in the near future, but his seat will probably get hot if he doesn't win 7-8 next year. The schedule is easy enough next year to comfortably reach that goal. Of course, it's so favorable, a losing record next year could start an avalanche. Realistically, Dan has until through the 2015 season, barring a melt down next year.

I think we beat SC this week. Gut feeling. If we don't, it could ignite a 3 game skid that could get the players down enough to give up before Arky and OM.

This is the most important game of the year so far, I feel. I think we turn things around.

 

[HD6]

Except, as was noted, Saban's fifth team was senior laden. Mullen has 9 seniors right now. Imagine this team with Cox, Boyd, Banks, and Bumphis all as redshirt seniors right now. Maybe Cox would be gone, but he would have been here last year. No telling.

The fact that anybody thought this year would be any more than a transition year where we would struggle to get to 6 wins baffles me.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Because,

by damn, there are no such things as transition years!!!1 You are suppose to get better each year and nEVER have any steps back!1!

 

[KurtRambis4]

I wasn't

comparing the two. I just rejected the silly idea that you could say his program was clearly on the rise, based soley on one season. As the general said, his team was full of seniors that year. I'd say that probably had more to do with the success than the "apparent" program rising.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

That's correct and a pretty good receiver in Plaxico. Their two losses were blowouts to Purdue and Wisconsin. Got Michigan and Ohio State at home and Ohio State that year was a top 20-25 team only. Michigan was ranked 3 when they beat them. That was a great win and made his record against their rival 2-3.

ETA. Btw the team the next year went 5-6. Lost a lot of talent and there wasn't a stockpile waiting to reload.

 

[BigLeagueChew]

While we're at it. Cutcliffe 40-22 after 5 seasons at Ole Miss

Looks like he's the clear "cut" winner. Explain to me how this is even remotely relevant

 

[ArcherSPS]

who in this thread even brought up cutcliffe?...

 

[HD6]

And you guys didn't allow him a transition year. As a result, you sat through three straight losing seasons. Looks relevant to me.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

It's not really. There are not many examples of coaches who are consider the best coaches in the country today when they did coach at similar level schools in power conferences they didn't have any more success than what Mullen, Cut, or others had. Is Saban a great coach or fortunate to have had opportunities at programs that were good marriages and breed success? Obviously he is a great coach but it underscores the difficulty for any coach to win in a power conference while they are at mid to lower tier school.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Exactly. And his health not withstanding given the chance he would be still winning there. He is still proving to be a very good coach.

 

[hotdogface]

When the prior coach is worse than an NCAA penalty, no one should be shocked that we had to go relatively heavy juco and light on the redshirts in Mullen's first season. That, combined with terrible misses and busts in o-line recruiting means we have few seniors and a team that gets gassed offensively in the fourth quarter. AND we have a team that appears headed straight towards the record everyone cooly expected preseason and is freaking out about midseason. All that said, the program is actually in pretty good shape for next season.

 

[KurtRambis4]

That cannot be???

They were trending up?!

 

[Sutterkane]

Saban's staff at Mich St didn't have anybody that went on to do anything. He didn't even have Jimbo as an OC until he got to LSU.

 

[thekimmer]

One thing I believe Mullen has learned this season is that.....

Dan Mullen's 5 year MSU record to date 33-25

Nick Saban's 5 year record at Michigan State 34-24-1

Nearly identical for their first major head coaching jobs.

I'm not suggesting Mullen will have the same career success as Saban but it is an interesting stat to consider.

If he ever again builds enough success at State to get interest stirred outside of starkville he better not let the opportunity go by like he did last time.

 

[RocketDawg]

Looks like he's the clear "cut" winner. Explain to me how this is even remotely relevant

So why'd they fire him? Because the Nutt case was available?

 

[KurtRambis4]

How

Though it was rightfully pointed out

is that "rightfully pointed out". One season does not warrant any confirmation on the direction of a program. As strike pointed out, their next season was on par with the 4, prior to the 5th. I'd say it (season 5) was an outlier, wouldn't you? Not proof that the program was on the rise.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I think they had to go through three years of Orgeron first. Then got Nutt. I will say I thought they "jumped the shark" firing him when they did and over-estimated who they could replace him with. However, looking back they were going have to address it the following year because of his health problems at the time. But that wasn't a known factor.

 

[RocketDawg]

Two years ago they overestimated who they could get, then finally hired Freeze when they couldn't get anybody else. If you'll recall, they thought they had Gruden and Dungy fighting over who would get the job.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

That's correct. 5-6, then 7-5 and 4-8 then Wilson was fired. Wilson didn't do great for sure but the loss of talent didn't give him a good start either. What you usually see with a coach that has built up a program is the next year or two with his replacement is something similar in win totals +-2 games. Then it falls off if he can't add to it. Like at West VA the first couple of years after Rich Rod. Maintained pretty well but then starts the decline. The right guy adds to it like at Oregon. Brooks, Bellotti, Kelly.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Lol. Well I remember that as well but I meant legitimately. It seems Oregeron was down the list but how far I don't know.

 

[121Josey]

Who says the right coach won't make a difference? Check out these fifth years:

Year	Team	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl/playoffs	Coaches[SUP]#[/SUP]	AP[SUP]°[/SUP]
Houston Cougars (Conference USA) <small>(2003–2007)</small>
2003	Houston	7–6	4–4	T–6th	L Hawaiʻi
2004	Houston	3–8	3–5	T–5th
2005	Houston	6–6	4–4	T–3rd <small>(West)</small>	L Fort Worth
2006	Houston	10–4	7–1	1st <small>(West)</small>	L Liberty
2007	Houston	8–4	6–2	T–1st <small>(West)</small>	Texas*
Houston:	34–28	24–16	<small>*Left Houston before bowl game</small>
Baylor Bears (Big 12 Conference) <small>(2008–present)</small>
2008	Baylor	4–8	2–6	T–5th <small>(South)</small>
2009	Baylor	4–8	1–7	6th <small>(South)</small>
2010	Baylor	7–6	4–4	4th <small>(South)</small>	L Texas
2011	Baylor	10–3	6–3	T–3rd	W Alamo	12	13
2012	Baylor	8–5	4–5	T–5th	W Holiday
2013	Baylor	7–0	4–0
Baylor:	40–30	20–25
Total:	74–58

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Wouldn't you say that those two kind of show the same thing? Basically the same number of wins for the first five years. Nonlinear trajectory at Houston and Baylor. I mean he took a step back from the fourth year to the fifth in both instances.

 

[121Josey]

Wouldn't you say that those two kind of show the same thing? Basically the same number of wins for the first five years. Nonlinear trajectory at Houston and Baylor. I mean he took a step back from the fourth year to the fifth in both instances.

Yes, they say the same thing: they didn't peak in year 2. Even if there was a "step back" between years 4 and 5, they were still keeping the momentum. Linear or not, it doesn't fall below the moving average. But don't stop there, look at the respective programs year 6 and onward.

Baylor
2013 record 7–0 (4–0 Big 12)

Houston
2009 record 10–4 (6–3 C-USA)
2010 record 5–7 (4–4 C-USA)
2011 record 13–1 (8–0 C-USA)
2012 record 5–7 (4–4 C-USA)
2013 record 6–1 (3–0 The American)

 

[SkullCandy.sixpack]

This has been an interesting thread. One of the take home messages I've gotten is that if you are going to dump your coach and hire your forever legacy coach, don't take a "big name" who flourished and then failed elsewhere, but some lesser well known--even obscure-- coach who has never learned to lose in the first place. And I agree with you, Kurt-- I was mistaken in seeing any trend in Saban's record.

 

[The Peeper]

Well lets look:

Jim McElwain former OC @ Bama now HC @ CO St, Bobby Williams Special Teams coach and Tight End Coach @ Bama, Mark Dantonio current HC @ MI St and Jeremy Pruitt current DC @ FL St (all former assts @ MI St) verses Mirando resigned for NCAA violations, Diaz fired mid season, Wilson rumored to be gone end of season w/ current DC and would have been fired here if he hadn't left, and Torbush who left for 2 terrible yrs at KS, 1 at Liberty and now HC at E.TN St who hasn't had a team for 10 yrs and won't for another 2. Sounds like Torbush not coaching is leading that pack.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Well now at Houston you are looking at a coach would built on what the previous coach did. But he stepped back in year two. (Injury to the QB). And the next coach in his first year stepped back. Yes the right hire as the next coach can be a formula to keep building but it has to be the right hire. If your trying to make a correlation to Mullen and trying to show that he has not been successful then the numbers do not work. Just using this league if he is fired this year or next and never becomes a head coach again (never mind considered a successful one) then he would be the first since 1980. You can't find one since 1980 that has been a coach for any of the bottom 6 schools with this much success and not have at least a 10 year head coaching career with various degrees of success.

Whether its Saban at Michigan State, Briles at Houston or Baylor everyone of them had almost identical number of wins over their first five years. Mullen stands at 33 right now. Almost identical. Win one more and it matches Saban and Briles when he was at Houston. Look at Miles 4 year record at Oklahoma State. Similar numbers. Beamer at Va Tech. Snider at K State. He is ahead of both of them at year five. What will the future hold? I don't know but statistically and historically odds are he will be coaching at least another five to ten years with some success. But every coach has transition years. Bryant was 6-5, 6-5 in years 12 & 13 at Bama after he had won his first national title. It will never be linear for any program.

 

[thatsbaseball]

So Saban had a good staff and had a good senior class in his fifth year and the combination of the two caused him to beat Ohio State and Michigan and finish 9-2. I.E. he did what Michigan State paid him to do. What am I missing here ? Did he do something wrong ?

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Not all. He had a good year as he should have had. If he did what he had done in years 3 & 4, underperformed (he was ranked both years at the start of the year and finished out of the polls with average records) then he would have never been hired as the next coach at LSU. But the premise that he built something there other than for that one year is incorrect. And I wouldn't exactly say that Wilson is any type of success when he took over even though he coached under Saban. And he was looking at a rebuild if he had stayed. It just shows how much this stuff is about timing and the right fit. Three of his wins were by 7 points or less that year. A couple of bounces the other way and instead of 9 wins it could have been 7. He was also blown out in back to back weeks. 52-24 and 40-10 (I think). He's a great coach and is better now than when he was at LSU even in my opinion. But I remember the call in shows the day he and Miles were hired and LSU fans were not sold at the time. They were proven wrong of course. It's just such a fine line at schools that are lower to mid tier.

 

[SPMT]

The biggest differences in Saban and Mullen besides the obvious:

1. Saban is a much better recruiter
2. Saban treats his assistants differently
3. Saban has never lost the fire. He's not chewing his play card.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

How can you prove he was a better recruiter when he was at Michigan State? They lost most of their talent when he left. There was not a stockpile of players. And it was his assistant that took over and was fired after three years.