IOWA WEEK!

CarolinaFan1

Senior
Jun 7, 2025
137
530
93
Probably about 30 seconds less than Ferrari.

Blaze is a guy that studies his opponents and knows their tendencies very well. I am very interested to see how he approaches the one-knee defense. Nobody has really figured out a great offensive response to the defensive tactic yet. I hope to see on Friday that the PSU coaches have developed a roadmap to counter it.
 

mcpat

All-Conference
Mar 12, 2021
1,134
3,527
113
1) Which Iowa wrestler is a lock to win? I don't see any.
2) They can't do it. Gable's hand-picked successors can't be fired as long as Gable is around.
Feel free to use whatever percentages you want, this exercise is more to illustrate probability math.

Let’s say the following are PSU’s chances to win each weight class:

125: 80%
133: 60%
141: 70%
149: 95%
157: 95%
165: 95%
174: 95%
184: 60%
197: 95%
285: 55%

The probability of all 10 winning using those odds is 8.6%.
 

jack66

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
3,281
2,935
113
Blaze is a guy that studies his opponents and knows their tendencies very well. I am very interested to see how he approaches the one-knee defense. Nobody has really figured out a great offensive response to the defensive tactic yet. I hope to see on Friday that the PSU coaches have developed a roadmap to counter it.

Zahid tried that tactic at the Olympic team trials a few years ago. Brooks just blew right through him for a TD.
 

Matter7172

Senior
Oct 30, 2021
159
475
53
Feel free to use whatever percentages you want, this exercise is more to illustrate probability math.

Let’s say the following are PSU’s chances to win each weight class:

125: 80%
133: 60%
141: 70%
149: 95%
157: 95%
165: 95%
174: 95%
184: 60%
197: 95%
285: 55%

The probability of all 10 winning using those odds is 8.6%.
That's not how it works because it's not a large enough sample size and it's a wrestling match, not a random sequence.
 

Random4598375

Senior
Jan 10, 2020
164
423
63
Feel free to use whatever percentages you want, this exercise is more to illustrate probability math.

Let’s say the following are PSU’s chances to win each weight class:

125: 80%
133: 60%
141: 70%
149: 95%
157: 95%
165: 95%
174: 95%
184: 60%
197: 95%
285: 55%

The probability of all 10 winning using those odds is 8.6%.
That’s under the assumption that each match is an independent trial uncorrelated with previous results. In these contests, momentum builds and the prior outcomes do affect subsequent matches. That makes the tail outcomes more likely on both sides, so 8.6% is an understatement (as is the calculated probability that Iowa wins the dual under the assumption of independence). If Penn State is up 40-0 or something going into heavyweight, the odds that Mirasola wins might be more like 80% even if it’s 55% in a one-off match.
 
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PSUeng

Freshman
Feb 5, 2003
46
75
18
Blaze is a guy that studies his opponents and knows their tendencies very well. I am very interested to see how he approaches the one-knee defense. Nobody has really figured out a great offensive response to the defensive tactic yet. I hope to see on Friday that the PSU coaches have developed a roadmap to counter it.
There was a video on one of these threads (Jason just doing takedowns) that had a wrestler going against Jason Nolf working from one knee. Jason put him in a headlock and took him down. I think the commentator even said, you cannot do that to a talented wrestler like Jason. Maybe he showed some of the PSU guys how to do it? I went to look for it but, on that video, they did not have commentators. Sorry, I saw it somewhere?
 
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Psalm 1 guy

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2019
571
1,870
93
Willie says hold my beer

jk, mcpat!
 
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AgSurfer

Senior
Aug 9, 2013
313
861
92
Gotta share this with you guys. I saw a Facebook post about how great Spencer Lee is. I wrote “If he had gone to Penn State he would have won 4 NCAA titles and his knees would still be healthy.”

Someone replied, You’re an idiot.”

My reply to them was, “Ha ha ha! Nothing better than when an Iowa fan bites down hard on the bait.” 😈

I don’t know how to post Facebook posts here, otherwise you guys could pile on, especially @johnstownsteel!
 
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Psalm 1 guy

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2019
571
1,870
93
Blaze is a guy that studies his opponents and knows their tendencies very well. I am very interested to see how he approaches the one-knee defense. Nobody has really figured out a great offensive response to the defensive tactic yet. I hope to see on Friday that the PSU coaches have developed a roadmap to counter it.
Marcus is very good at getting to shots from his short offense. If Ayala goes to one knee and Marcus is able to snap him down to both hands, Marcus might be able to get an angle for a TD like he did in this clip from his match against Nebraska.
 

amattaro

Senior
Sep 12, 2017
228
910
93
Feel free to use whatever percentages you want, this exercise is more to illustrate probability math.

Let’s say the following are PSU’s chances to win each weight class:

125: 80%
133: 60%
141: 70%
149: 95%
157: 95%
165: 95%
174: 95%
184: 60%
197: 95%
285: 55%

The probability of all 10 winning using those odds is 8.6%.
Round it to 8.3%
 

Dren007

Junior
Feb 19, 2012
105
203
43
Ferrari will be on his knees and will shoot low attacks. Welsh will have to adapt somehow. Would be good to see stalling called appropriately, even in the 1st period.
Cael will have something to handle the knee thing. I would imagine Rocco will hold center and not chase Ferrari backing up on one knee.
 

jmadden1998

Freshman
Jan 26, 2017
16
72
13
Gotta share this with you guys. I saw a Facebook post about how great Spencer Lee is. I wrote “If he had gone to Penn State he would have won 4 NCAA titles and his knees would still be healthy.”

Someone replied, You’re an idiot.”

My reply to them was, “Ha ha ha! Nothing better than when an Iowa fan bites down hard on the bait.” 😈

I don’t know how to post Facebook posts here, otherwise you guys could pile on, especially @johnstownsteel!

 

Danoftw

Junior
Feb 17, 2018
31
213
28
Gotta share this with you guys. I saw a Facebook post about how great Spencer Lee is. I wrote “If he had gone to Penn State he would have won 4 NCAA titles and his knees would still be healthy.”

Someone replied, You’re an idiot.”

My reply to them was, “Ha ha ha! Nothing better than when an Iowa fan bites down hard on the bait.” 😈

I don’t know how to post Facebook posts here, otherwise you guys could pile on, especially @johnstownsteel!
GIAs shouldn’t take it so personal when talking about Lee not winning 4. I’m sure Brands could’ve coached some of the other 4 timers to 3 or less titles.
1768274594109.png
 
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Nitlion1986

All-Conference
Apr 13, 2024
585
1,645
93
GIAs shouldn’t take it so personal when talking about Lee not winning 4. I’m sure Brands could’ve coached some of the other 4 timers to 3 or less titles.
View attachment 1139064
Not likely. The 4 timers are middle to upper weights. There is practically zero evidence available to indicate TnT could squeeze multiple titles out of middle to upper weights. As elite as Metcalf was they had him ruined by his senior year.
 
Jul 26, 2014
232
690
93
Gotta share this with you guys. I saw a Facebook post about how great Spencer Lee is. I wrote “If he had gone to Penn State he would have won 4 NCAA titles and his knees would still be healthy.”

Someone replied, You’re an idiot.”

My reply to them was, “Ha ha ha! Nothing better than when an Iowa fan bites down hard on the bait.” 😈

I don’t know how to post Facebook posts here, otherwise you guys could pile on, especially @johnstownsteel!
You could have added if he went to Penn State his Mom would still have glasses.