I don't think we would be able to get only one of the VA schools. Remember when VT wasn't in the ACC? If memory serves, the VA General Assembly basically said they wanted VT and UVA in the same conference, and I suspect they'd do the same again. Now UVA and VT as the 15th and 16th teams would be interesting ...
We will not take them both nor will the B1G. We are going to get one of them, most likely Va Tech(Virginia is a better cultural fit for the B1G -- and they fancy themselves superior to us academically). They are also already Va Tech's football afterthought, so they essentially lose nothing from that move. Check the link provided in my last post -- it was discussed fairly at length there.
Big difference(legislatively) between Va Tech being stuck in an inferior conference making half the tv money(and I'm assuming having a healthy portion of the state legislature as grads) -- and them both having the opportunity to move on the bigger/better conferences where they can make double the money and still play games against each other. $$ overcomes all boundaries. What legislator is going to step up and essentially cost his state institutions a new income of $50mil+/yr? That's what they would be doing in this case. They wouldn't be helping VT(like they did before), they would be hurting them both.
Here's essentially how I see this going to go down:
- Maryland lawsuit settles. If they are stuck paying the full $50mil, the ACC could potentially survive -- at least temporarily. If they negotiate a significantly lower fee(which I believe every bigtime school in realignment has so far), the flood gates will open. Hence the ACC's stance on pulling no punches on the financial penalties involved.
- Clemson and FSU are gone to the Big12. Possibly Miami as well. Wouldn't be surprised if they were the first shoes to drop. At this point, the ACC is no longer viable as a football conference without the Florida recruiting grounds feeding them.
- Virginia and Georgia Tech to the B1G. Virginia wants the academic prestige and Georgia Tech is desperate -- seeing themselves become more and more of an irrelevant afterthought.
- Virginia Tech to the SEC. They could easily let Virginia make the first move out of respect for the situation mentioned previously, but it's likely to happen either way.
- NC State and Duke will be the tell for UNC's decision, since UNC essentially controls where their chips CAN fall. If you see Duke go B1G at this point and/or NC State to the Big12 prior to hearing anything from UNC, you will know the decision has already been made and they are in the SEC boat. This is the only way things can go down where none of the bigtime NC schools get left out(looks like Wake is getting left out either way). Some talk that NC State could be involved in the first round toward the Big12, but they are still holding out hope for an SEC opportunity. IF UNC goes to the B1G with Virginia, NC State comes to the SEC, and Duke essentially gets left out.
