The downside of the West being so bad this year and our weak OOC schedule is more opportunities for bad losses.
We'll take enough bad losses to miss the dance, and right now it's looking like it'll be us and Arkansas fighting it out for the top of the West with maybe only one of us getting in the NIT.
We did lose a home game to a Dayton team that has lost to Old Dominion and ETSU, lost to Cincinnati by 34, and only beat Central Connecticut State and Savannah State by 2 a piece, and we didn't look too sharp against a poor Texas State team.
Right now, if you were to look at our resume, the only "quality" win you'd see is Southern Miss at home. Our next best wins (RPI-wise) are Murray State and ETSU, both Top 100. I seriously doubt USM stays in the Top 50 of the RPI until the end of the season. They may even slip outside the Top 100. Our OOC schedule the rest of the way doesn't give us anymore opportunities for quality wins. When you consider that it's likely we won't face a single West team that will finish in the Top 50 of the RPI, that means that in our entire schedule, we may only have 4 or 5 games against teams that finish in the Top 50 of the RPI (some variation of UK, UT, Florida, Vandy, and Georgia). That's not a lot of opportunity for quality wins, and we'll have plenty of opportunities for losses outside the Top 100. I think Dayton will finish being at least one loss for us outside the Top 100.
To get in the dance, I figure we'd need more Top 50 wins than 100+ losses. I don't know that I see that happening with our schedule.
Aside from all the bad losses taken in the West, I'm still amazed at how bad Auburn is.