Last round of Derby preps
- Thread starter Glenn's Take
- Start date
I'm not sure you can put too much stock in the Beyer on this one. The track kept changing all day.
He will be and will probably win since I seriously doubt I'll bet on him.
Nice. Although that first quote wasn't mine. Any other races I should clue into before the Derby, or was that it? I know that running horses more than once a month (?) is risky, and the distance between the three major races was cause for concern..
3 this weekend. The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, The Santa Anita Derby out in California and the Bluegrass is at Keeneland. 2 more next weekend. The Arkansas Derby and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. I'm not sure why the moved the Arkansas Derby to 3 weeks before but it is usually a key race.
Awesome. Thanks man.
So I heard correct that a horse really shouldn't race more than once a month? I take it Nyquist isn't racing again until May 7th?
So I heard correct that a horse really shouldn't race more than once a month? I take it Nyquist isn't racing again until May 7th?
Certainly the elite level horses don't race any more than that. In some of the lower level races you will see them run back in a week or so but it doesn't happen very often. Nyquist most definitely will not be racing again before the Derby. This is one of the things that makes the TC so hard. The Preakness is only 2 weeks after the Derby and then the Belmont is 3 weeks after that. None of the horses will like ever run 3 races in 5 weeks ever again. Also, the Belmont is a mile and a half. No dirt races are ever run at that distance. Even the Breeders Cup got rid of the Marathon. Turf races are run at that distance but not dirt.
I'd like to see Swipe earn enough points to get into the Derby. If you watch the Breeder's Cup race from Keeneland last year, he almost passed Nyquist in the final stretch and would have if there would've been more distance. They should run him in a race that earns him more points. Not sure if the Lexington Stakes will grant him enough points assuming he wins.
Honestly, I really dont pay that much attention too them anymore. Fodder for the thread.
Result charts, my eyes, and variation of pace figs, tell me what I need to know about the race..
kay:Exaggerator got my attention today. Impressive run. Can the Desourmeux's stay sober long enough to run another big race on the 7th?
Exaggerator was impressive today but he got a really nice pace to run into. 22 1/5 and 45 2/5. Also wonder if the sloppy track may have helped him. He still ran past those other horses like they were standing still. I'm not too impressed with Outwork in the Wood but I don't really think much of the Wood as a prep anymore. All of the good east coast horses are at Gulfstream or Oaklawn for the winter. I was impressed with Brody's Cause today. I thought that was a really good win. Glad to see it for Dale Romans. He had a tough week getting Keen Ice taken away from him and giving him to Pletcher. I did hit the Big Apple/Bluegrass pick 4 today for $320 so that was nice.
I had 10 across on Brody for a ~$180 score.
No win in the Wood and I was scared to bet SA because of the slop.
No doubt the track and the pace helped Ex, but that was a BIG move and a sustained run to the wire. Mor Spirit was making a good move when Ex blew right by him which made it visually more impressive . . . to me anyway.
No win in the Wood and I was scared to bet SA because of the slop.
No doubt the track and the pace helped Ex, but that was a BIG move and a sustained run to the wire. Mor Spirit was making a good move when Ex blew right by him which made it visually more impressive . . . to me anyway.
If you want to see what it means for a horse to come from the clouds watch this horse today in the Ashland. I wouldn't have given a dime for her chances in the race until there was about 50 yards left. Beating Cathryn Sophia and Rachel's Valentina no less. Songbird's race was another paid workout. I didn't realize it is the same owner as 8 Belles. That may explain the reluctance to want to race against the boys.
Weep No More
Weep No More
I agree it was impressive. I've got a feeling you are going to see a deep closer win the Derby this year. Just a hunch at this point.
This was one of the crazier comebacks I have seen in a while. At the top of the lane that horse wasn't even in the picture. As far as Songbird, I wonder if they would run her in the Preakness if she dominates the Oaks?
The first thing I'd say is don't decide who you are going to bet on in a horse race a month before the race. If you were to put a gun to my head right now though I would probably bet on Cupid. He will be running in the Arkansas Derby next weekend. I liked how he got challenged in the Rebel and then took off again. How about a Cupid and Mo Tom stretch duel with Cupid holding him off. Unless of course the track comes up sloppy, then bet Exaggerator.
My advice for the Derby is to put all of the horses 15-1 and over in a hat and pull one out. Maybe Nyquist is the real deal but I don't think any of them are all that great.
Glen, what horses do I need to bet on for the Derby? I wanna bet a $100 a horse. I know that is chump change in your category. But I'll go at least 3 horses $100 a piece. You gonna give me the wrong ones Glen?
When I look at the contenders every year and try to handicap this thing, I always look for horses that have something unique that can put them over that last 1/4 and propel them to victory.
Last year it was Pharoah's effortless gait. Dortmund's size and stride. Frosted's late run he was capable of. Those colts all could have won and wee in my tickets. (Firing Line cost me the super. Replace him with Muhbtaji and I would have been bragging my *** off).
I say that to say this: every horse in this year's field can LOSE. I guess you must respect Nyquist for who he is, but he seems to be a smaller built horse with distance questions. All the others have worse looking pimples.
I'm going to be looking close at the guys I trust at the track watching workouts. One of these hags is going to win it this year. I hope I'm on the one that peaks on 5/7!
Last year it was Pharoah's effortless gait. Dortmund's size and stride. Frosted's late run he was capable of. Those colts all could have won and wee in my tickets. (Firing Line cost me the super. Replace him with Muhbtaji and I would have been bragging my *** off).
I say that to say this: every horse in this year's field can LOSE. I guess you must respect Nyquist for who he is, but he seems to be a smaller built horse with distance questions. All the others have worse looking pimples.
I'm going to be looking close at the guys I trust at the track watching workouts. One of these hags is going to win it this year. I hope I'm on the one that peaks on 5/7!
I don't have a frickin clue at this point.
At this point I think I would give you the wrong one. Nyquist is the only one that stands out at all right now and I still have doubts about him. I know I'm going to hate the odds on him so I'll be looking elsewhere. I'm just not sure where yet. This is the biggest jumbled mess the Derby has been in a long time.
This is another example of why those Derby future pools are a fools bet. The 2 favorites are both not even running in the race unless Cathryn Sophia's connections change their mind about not wanting to run her long anymore. Maybe if I was in Vegas and they would just quote me a price on a longshot I knew I like I might do it but I sure as hell wouldn't get involved in a parimutuel pool on it.
Obviously not a major set back for her, and I'm sure it stings a bit for the connections, but they know what they got in the barn for down the road. That said, Oaks just went from a race to watch, to now a decent wagering option.
Hearing whispers that a big Derby player may be backing out today or a little later this week. No idea which horse or if it even has merit.
This is typically the time when they start bowing out...i thought it might be Mohayman, but here he is out this morning.
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Yeah, they said Mohaymen actually looked good moving over the track today.
Nyquist had a fever last week. But he's galloping. Not sure he's breezed since the fever though.
Nyquist had a fever last week. But he's galloping. Not sure he's breezed since the fever though.
And ther it is: Cupid is out (I speculated this, but had no real source).
Paves the way for Mo Tom, a horse I will give serious consideration in exotics.
Paves the way for Mo Tom, a horse I will give serious consideration in exotics.
It actually puts Fellowship in. Oscar Nominated who won the Spiral is not nominated to the triple crown.
Yes, but Oscar Nominated is above both of them but is ineligible for any of the TC races because his connections didn't pay the nomination fee and there is no late nomination period that I know of.
Apparently I was wrong and there is a late nomination period and Ken Ramsey suckered somebody into putting up the $200,000.
Oscar Nominated nominated
I thought he had found some financial aid - not that he really needed any.
What are your thoughts on Mo Tom? I find fault in Lanerie on all of his losses this year. He was LOADED for the stretch in The LA Derby and Lanerie wanted to skim the rail for some reason. Checked up 3 times and lucky he wasn't trampled.
I thought he would have won in the Risen Star if there was another panel to run even after Lanerie touched that ride up too. A clean trip (and maybe he's now "earned" one from the racing gods), and he's a very live play.
What are your thoughts on Mo Tom? I find fault in Lanerie on all of his losses this year. He was LOADED for the stretch in The LA Derby and Lanerie wanted to skim the rail for some reason. Checked up 3 times and lucky he wasn't trampled.
I thought he would have won in the Risen Star if there was another panel to run even after Lanerie touched that ride up too. A clean trip (and maybe he's now "earned" one from the racing gods), and he's a very live play.
I like the horse a lot and I am pretty sure Corey Lanarie knows that Tom Amoss will kill him if he gets stuck on the rail again. The only thing is that he is a dead closer and they tend to find trouble in a 20 horse field. Having said that he very well may be my pick for the race. I have a feeling he may end up the "wise guy" pick and get his odds driven down.
The clockers on the backstretch are already enamored by him. Read a few comments about the way he was moving over the surface.
I'm not sure the general public will bet him down below 25-1. I see Gun Runner, Exaggerrator, and maybe Mojesto as the wise-guy horses. Oh, and Destin. He'll be a huge overlay.
I'm not sure the general public will bet him down below 25-1. I see Gun Runner, Exaggerrator, and maybe Mojesto as the wise-guy horses. Oh, and Destin. He'll be a huge overlay.
Now that Songbird is out of the Oaks Cathryn Sophia's connections are considering the Oaks again. I think they would be smart to keep her around one turn but it isn't my decision.
OK Willy. You will probably lose but put your money on Destin. I assume no liability for being wrong.