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Life is all about timing

D

derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
1,449
0
Its funny how timing makes such a huge deal.

Imagine that in summer of 2010, the Big Ten had invited Nebraska AND Rutgers and someone else (could have been Maryland, but probably not - probably Missouri) to start in 2011 (when Nebraska started).

I'm not a big Schiano fan, but I think he would have recruited really well with the recruiting team he had at that time. Even if he had gotten that NFL invite in 2012, we would have been in much better shape - much less pressure to keep costs low, and less of a chance he takes it in the first place (with an RU team that would be poised to make a run at the Big Ten title in year two for reasons outlined below.)

Not only that but we would have started in the BIg Ten at or just before low points for Michigan, PSU, OSU. MSU was a powerhouse on the field at the time, but not yet in recruiting. Maryland wasnt any good, and if it had been Missouri we likely end up with Purdue in the division.

I have to believe that Schiano would have taken HUGE advantage of all of that in recruiting for several more years.

That two and a half year delay in inviting us really screwed us in the end.
 
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V

vkj91

Heisman
Feb 7, 2007
187,970
48,776
98
derleider said:
Its funny how timing makes such a huge deal.

Imagine that in summer of 2010, the Big Ten had invited Nebraska AND Rutgers and someone else (could have been Maryland, but probably not - probably Missouri) to start in 2011 (when Nebraska started).

I'm not a big Schiano fan, but I think he would have recruited really well with the recruiting team he had at that time. Even if he had gotten that NFL invite in 2012, we would have been in much better shape - much less pressure to keep costs low, and less of a chance he takes it in the first place (with an RU team that would be poised to make a run at the Big Ten title in year two for reasons outlined below.)

Not only that but we would have started in the BIg Ten at or just before low points for Michigan, PSU, OSU. MSU was a powerhouse on the field at the time, but not yet in recruiting. Maryland wasnt any good, and if it had been Missouri we likely end up with Purdue in the division.

I have to believe that Schiano would have taken HUGE advantage of all of that in recruiting for several more years.

That two and a half year delay in inviting us really screwed us in the end.
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The only thing that would have changed was we would be getting more money sooner. Schiano couldn't take advantage of all the issues Big East teams had...why would the B1G be any different?
 
Z

Zak57

Heisman
Jul 5, 2011
10,827
10,935
113
Well Schiano's style of play is way more suitable in the B1G that the Big East. Recruiting was heavily on the upswing with the new staff members. The teams in the B1G were at a down period like mentioned above.
 
e5fdny

e5fdny

Heisman
Nov 11, 2002
113,561
52,159
102
derleider said:
.That two and a half year delay in inviting us really screwed us in the end.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure it was the more than 20+ yr delay in EVERYTHING Rutgers Athletics related that screwed us.

And yet, we're still in the B1G. I like our future better than our past.
 
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D

derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
1,449
0
vkj91 said:
The only thing that would have changed was we would be getting more money sooner. Schiano couldn't take advantage of all the issues Big East teams had...why would the B1G be any different?
Click to expand...
What would have been different is that we wouldnt have had a giant gaping hole in our recruiting - in fact, we would have done even better than we did - give Schiano that ace recruiting staff AND a Big Ten invite, and you are talking top 20 classes for several years, instead of top 60 classes.

Bassically look at it from the perspective of this year - either we still have Schiano and hes at least filling the place up with talent (and at the same time prevening PSU from doing the same.) or he left in 2012 and we had money and an imperative to hire someone better than Flood (also we would be that much more attractive.)

In the long run, it probably doesnt matter - either we invest or we dont, once we get the money. But the money coming earlier is not a non-factor - not for a school that has struggled to build a national level brand.

e5fdny - yes - for RU athletics as a whole - but for FB specifically, we have been investing at high sough levels in most respects to be a decent team. The situation we are in now (looking at a decent chance of being buried in the bottom of the division for quite a while) would likely have been avoided if we had come into the conference with Schiano and not Flood, and at at time when three of the big four ahead of us were down relative to their peak levels.
 
E

eceres

Junior
Jun 24, 2013
738
313
0
This shows that Schiano except in 2010 always out performed his recruiting rank according to the computers. We can see Flood generally under performs.

So if Schiano could keep his recruiting on an upward trajectory the team would of hopefully continued trending upward.

Sorry don't know how to make a readable table on here....

Stats:

Year Result vs. Recruit Rivals 5 Yr Rivals Avg Sag/Mas Avg (Sagarin/Massey)
2014 -7.6 57 44.4 52 (62/42)
2013 -61.4 45 40.6 102 (100/104)
2012 -11.2 24 40.8 52 (53/51)
2011 6.9 32 43.4 36.5 (36/37)
2010 -45.1 64 45.4 90.5 (90/91)
2009 5.9 38 46.4 40.5 (41/40)
2008 19.2 46 55.2 36 (37/35)
2007 15.5 37 55.0 39.5 (38/41)
2006 44.0 42 57.0 13 (12/14)
2005 N/A 69 N/A 58 (53/63)
2004 N/A 82 N/A 86.5 (94/79)
2003 N/A 45 N/A 71.5 (74/69)
2002 N/A 47 N/A 134.5 (158/111)
 
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e5fdny

e5fdny

Heisman
Nov 11, 2002
113,561
52,159
102
derleider said:
e5fdny - yes - for RU athletics as a whole - but for FB specifically, we have been investing at high dough levels in most respects to be a decent team. The situation we are in now (looking at a decent chance of being buried in the bottom of the division for quite a while) would likely have been avoided if we had come into the conference with Schiano and not Flood, and at at time when three of the big four ahead of us were down relative to their peak levels.
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We don't know that to be true. We'll never know.

What we do know to be true is we are now here. What we do going forward (whomever the FB coach is) + the additional $$$$ will determine what happens next.
 
V

vkj91

Heisman
Feb 7, 2007
187,970
48,776
98
derleider said:
What would have been different is that we wouldnt have had a giant gaping hole in our recruiting - in fact, we would have done even better than we did - give Schiano that ace recruiting staff AND a Big Ten invite, and you are talking top 20 classes for several years, instead of top 60 classes.

Bassically look at it from the perspective of this year - either we still have Schiano and hes at least filling the place up with talent (and at the same time prevening PSU from doing the same.) or he left in 2012 and we had money and an imperative to hire someone better than Flood (also we would be that much more attractive.)

In the long run, it probably doesnt matter - either we invest or we dont, once we get the money. But the money coming earlier is not a non-factor - not for a school that has struggled to build a national level brand.

e5fdny - yes - for RU athletics as a whole - but for FB specifically, we have been investing at high sough levels in most respects to be a decent team. The situation we are in now (looking at a decent chance of being buried in the bottom of the division for quite a while) would likely have been avoided if we had come into the conference with Schiano and not Flood, and at at time when three of the big four ahead of us were down relative to their peak levels.
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I guess that's where I always get lost in this conversation. Even when we were down we were still losing kids to PSU. ND, UNC, Michigan, etc were still coming in here and taking who they wanted most years. Outside of one or two years Schiano's classes were usually ranked 3rd in the Big East. Why would he all of a sudden be keeping the talent from going to PSU? Would we be recruiting better than we are now.....I'm sure. Would we be magically getting consistent top 15 classes? I doubt it. You think Schiano keeps Minkah from Bama or Peppers from Michigan? I know I'm considered a Schiano hater her although I truly am not. I would gladly welcome him back... I just don't get the revisionist history. Schiano in tow I still think we are looking at 6,7,8 wins a year and his track record agrees.
 
V

vkj91

Heisman
Feb 7, 2007
187,970
48,776
98
Also, we didn't go on the cheap when we were looking for a coach. We offered Cristobol more than adequate salary for the time.
 
e5fdny

e5fdny

Heisman
Nov 11, 2002
113,561
52,159
102
vkj91 said:
I guess that's where I always get lost in this conversation. Even when we were down we were still losing kids to PSU. ND, UNC, Michigan, etc were still coming in here and taking who they wanted most years. Outside of one or two years Schiano's classes were usually ranked 3rd in the Big East. Why would he all of a sudden be keeping the talent from going to PSU? Would we be recruiting better than we are now.....I'm sure. Would we be magically getting consistent top 15 classes? I doubt it. You think Schiano keeps Minkah from Bama or Peppers from Michigan? I know I'm considered a Schiano hater her although I truly am not. I would gladly welcome him back... I just don't get the revisionist history. Schiano in tow I still think we are looking at 6,7,8 wins a year and his track record agrees.
Click to expand...
How about this one...

an evolved Schiano (letting the OC coach for example. I'm sure others can come up with another) + $$$$ (to hire the type of recruiter who got the guys he didn't get before).

Would that get us the extra win(s)?
 
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B

beaced_rivals

Heisman
Jul 18, 2004
32,005
10,319
0
derleider said:
Its funny how timing makes such a huge deal.

Imagine that in summer of 2010, the Big Ten had invited Nebraska AND Rutgers and someone else (could have been Maryland, but probably not - probably Missouri) to start in 2011 (when Nebraska started).

I'm not a big Schiano fan, but I think he would have recruited really well with the recruiting team he had at that time. Even if he had gotten that NFL invite in 2012, we would have been in much better shape - much less pressure to keep costs low, and less of a chance he takes it in the first place (with an RU team that would be poised to make a run at the Big Ten title in year two for reasons outlined below.)

Not only that but we would have started in the BIg Ten at or just before low points for Michigan, PSU, OSU. MSU was a powerhouse on the field at the time, but not yet in recruiting. Maryland wasnt any good, and if it had been Missouri we likely end up with Purdue in the division.

I have to believe that Schiano would have taken HUGE advantage of all of that in recruiting for several more years.

That two and a half year delay in inviting us really screwed us in the end.
Click to expand...
Agree completely about timing.Your example was about Football but it also applies to LIFE in its every aspect.
 
D

derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
1,449
0
e5fdny said:
How about this one...

an evolved Schiano (letting the OC coach for example. I'm sure others can come up with another) + $$$$ (to hire the type of recruiter who got the guys he didn't get before).

Would that get us the extra win(s)?
Click to expand...
Less so. Because the conference has caught up - PSU, Michigan, and OSU are no longer on the outs. MSU has solidified itself as a top 10 team. Maryland is in instad of Missouri, and they will ahve a ton of money for their next coach.

Schiano would need to rebuild a great recruiting team, and its no sure thing that he could. RUs image is tarnished vs summer 2010 (remember - the invites would have gone out even before the tragic 2010 season.) Schiano himself has been exposed in the interim as not so great of a coach (terrible 2010, middling 2011, terrible time with the Bucs).

Basically the advantages we would have had starting in 2011 with a long time Schiano and a well connected recruiting staff are alrgely obsolete.

Basically, I think Schiano doesn't bring that much extra any more over any other middle of the road BCS HC (i.e. the kind we could afford to hire away from another school, or get off the scrap heap if one gets fired). Schiano and Rutgers in 2010 are not Rutgers and Schiano in 2015, which is kind of the point of the post. Those 2.5 years could delay our ascendance by alot more than that.

vkg - yes - but those two great classes are very relevant. Because they happened in exactly that time frame that Im talking about. Now imagine that its 2015. RU has had several top 25 level recruiting classes before PSU hires Franklin and Michigan hires Harbaugh. In all likelihood that would have eventually translated to actual good performances on the field - top 25 level, adding to the momentum.

I disagree that we didnt go cheap. $1.4 million is still a cheap play. Its not Flood level, but its we are making the bare minimum of commitment - its still luck of the draw level.
 
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e5fdny

e5fdny

Heisman
Nov 11, 2002
113,561
52,159
102
derleider said:
Less so. Because the conference has caught up - PSU, Michigan, and OSU are no longer on the outs. MSU has solidified itself as a top 10 team. Maryland is in instad of Missouri, and they will ahve a ton of money for their next coach.

Schiano would need to rebuild a great recruiting team, and its no sure thing that he could. RUs image is tarnished vs summer 2010 (remember - the invites would have gone out even before the tragic 2010 season.) Schiano himself has been exposed in the interim as not so great of a coach (terrible 2010, middling 2011, terrible time with the Bucs).

Basically the advantages we would have had starting in 2011 with a long time Schiano and a well connected recruiting staff are alrgely obsolete.

Basically, I think Schiano doesn't bring that much extra any more over any other middle of the road BCS HC (i.e. the kind we could afford to hire away from another school, or get off the scrap heap if one gets fired). Schiano and Rutgers in 2010 are not Rutgers and Schiano in 2015, which is kind of the point of the post. Those 2.5 years could delay our ascendance by alot more than that.
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Did you just refute your OP?
 
R

RUich

All-Conference
Aug 2, 2001
13,552
4,003
0
I have to agree with the OP. We still had some good vibes going from the earlier years and our recruiting was light years better than what we have now. We would have been spared the real anguish years of the demise of the BE and the AAC plus having the BIG money earlier.
As tempting as the NFL must be, GS would have had to really think about leaving a fantastic situation he already had.
 
R

Ru2bnj

Sophomore
Apr 21, 2006
10,060
179
0
Of course the other end of it is that the B1G expansion to 14 was really based on a few things occurring including Notre Dame cutting the deal with the ACC. RU was one of the last 2 schools to get invited into a major conference. Very easily could have remained in the former conference playing with UConn, USF, Cincy, etc right now.
 
A

AreYouNUTS

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
120,121
52,779
113
derleider said:
What would have been different is that we wouldnt have had a giant gaping hole in our recruiting - in fact, we would have done even better than we did - give Schiano that ace recruiting staff AND a Big Ten invite, and you are talking top 20 classes for several years, instead of top 60 classes.

.
Click to expand...

Yup. We wouldn't be getting our heads handed to us, year-after-year, in our own state, and it would have made a huge difference.
 
N

NotInRHouse_anon

Heisman
Oct 17, 2007
69,704
47,620
0
vkj91 said:
I guess that's where I always get lost in this conversation. Even when we were down we were still losing kids to PSU. ND, UNC, Michigan, etc were still coming in here and taking who they wanted most years. Outside of one or two years Schiano's classes were usually ranked 3rd in the Big East. Why would he all of a sudden be keeping the talent from going to PSU? Would we be recruiting better than we are now.....I'm sure. Would we be magically getting consistent top 15 classes? I doubt it. You think Schiano keeps Minkah from Bama or Peppers from Michigan? I know I'm considered a Schiano hater her although I truly am not. I would gladly welcome him back... I just don't get the revisionist history. Schiano in tow I still think we are looking at 6,7,8 wins a year and his track record agrees.
Click to expand...

Not true. Didn't Huggins come here over UNC and ND? Savage had a Ped offer. Anthony Davis had a tOSU offer.

There are others but off the top of my head...we also had some classes ahead of State Penn, Schiano was beating them for recruits quite often.

Remember also that this was in the BE and the last class he assembled was misfit toys.

You may not like Schiano, but the fact is, recruits did. They don't seem to feel the same about Flood. Hard to imagine a recruit choosing Cuse or Temple over RU in the Schiano bowl era.
 
V

vkj91

Heisman
Feb 7, 2007
187,970
48,776
98
NotInRHouse said:
Not true. Didn't Huggins come here over UNC and ND? Savage had a Ped offer. Anthony Davis had a tOSU offer.

There are others but off the top of my head...we also had some classes ahead of State Penn, Schiano was beating them for recruits quite often.

Remember also that this was in the BE and the last class he assembled was misfit toys.

You may not like Schiano, but the fact is, recruits did. They don't seem to feel the same about Flood. Hard to imagine a recruit choosing Cuse or Temple over RU in the Schiano bowl era.
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https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-1863

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2213

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2477

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2697
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,372
9,025
113
But you are right taking that job probably wasn't what caused his career to nose dive. Maybe it was the decisions he made after that?

I dunno, somewhere along the line something went wrong.
 
F

FanuSanu52

All-Conference
Nov 8, 2011
11,256
4,618
0
RU-05 said:
And his career is where now?
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He's sitting on a resume that now has RU turnaround experience and NFL HC on it. Isn't he doing broadcasting somewhere? And still getting paid by Tampa? And still being talked about as a candidate to come back here and take his old job? Or another P5 job?

Think he's doing just fine.
 
N

NotInRHouse_anon

Heisman
Oct 17, 2007
69,704
47,620
0
vkj91 said:
https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-1863

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2213

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2477

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2697
Click to expand...

2008 RU had 6 top 30
2009 RU had 9 top 30
2011 RU had 10 top 30

One year you posted NY- not sure if there was an error or a point with that one. I think we can all agree, GS was pretty good at getting the NY players.

That said, even in the top 10, Michigan only tied us once with 3 in 2008, and I think at least one of those guys transferred here.

So basically, I think the only think you've proven is that Schiano had clear recruiting momentum.

1/3 of the top 30, or a 1/3 of the top 10, in the BE versus the B1G, so what would happen in the B1G?

And why have we slipped under Flood?

Here's something else. In 2011, we had 2 top 30 recruits from PA. TTFP had 4. So we were making gains on them in their own state, nevermind beating them here. In NY, we had two of the top 10.

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2695

https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2699

Oh and this was after a losing season....
 
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