As we get closer to the start of the playoffs, I've run some computer models and looked at information. I'm listing the likely winners of the regions in 4A and 4AA. I'll be listing all of the teams in each region in the order of how likely they are to win the region. Keep in mind, this is not a personal prediction. I'm not saying this order is set in concrete. No one can say that. Lots of things can happen, once playoff competition begins. I've attempted to analyze each region and list the teams in order of their likelihood of winning their region. The listings are below.
4A East
In this region, you have basically New Bern and Scotland. I've listed New Bern first, based on the models. But in reality, you basically have 1 and 1A. I would not be surprised if either one of these teams comes out of this region. Though this region has some good teams, it looks like Scotland and New Bern are the cream of the crop.
Seventy-First and Rose are in the next tier. But, I would put Seventy-First a few steps ahead of Rose. Hoggard and Connelly could make a run if the stars align correctly. The rest of the teams in this region are in the next tier.
New Bern
Scotland
Seventy-First
Rose
Hoggard
Conley
E.E. Smith
East Wake
Hillside
New Hanover
Cape Fear
South Central
West Johnston
Clayton
Northern
Riverside
4A West
In this region, Dudley would have been a slight favorite to win 4A West. But, with Dudley not in the playoffs, Charlotte Catholic is the slight favorite to take this region. They aren't a prohibitive favorite, but are the most likely to win this region. I want to make a point that without Dudley, this will NOT be an asterisk championship for whoever wins this region. There are many quality teams here. With that being said, this region is going to be exciting. You have Charlotte Catholic, Vance, Reagan, and Mooresville, who could all escape this region with the right circumstances coming into play. High Point Central, North Davidson, A.L. Brown and Rocky River will all be competitive, but not having enough horses to challenge the top teams.
Charlotte Catholic
Vance
Reagan
Mooresville
High Point Central
North Davidson
A.L. Brown
Rocky River
Southeast Guilford
Mount Tabor
Ragsdale
Davie County
South Caldwell
Watauga
T.C. Roberson
4AA East
In this region, you have a definite top tier, Richmond, Wake Forest and Garner. Many people have Richmond tabbed as the winner here. I'm going to be the contrarian and indicate, again in this region, you have 1 and 1A, with Garner close behind. Based on the computer models, I have Wake Forest as a very slight favorite to escape this region. But, I would not be shocked if Wake Forest, Garner or Richmond take this region. You have Wake Forest, Richmond and Garner with some separation from the rest of the pack. Then you have a second tier of Middle Creek, Millbrook, Pinecrest and Panther Creek. The rest of the region, one could roll the dice.
Wake Forest
Richmond Garner
Middle Creek
Millbrook
Pinecrest
Panther Creek
Heritage
Green Hope
Holly Springs
Jack Britt
Apex
Fuquay-Varina
Leesville Road
Wakefield
Laney
4AA West
This region is traditionally one of the state's toughest regions. There's a definite tier structure this season. East Forsyth, Butler, Independence and Mallard Creek make up the definite upper tier. It will be close, but East Forsyth will have to run the gauntlet to win this region, much like Page had to do in 2011. Hough and West Forsyth could be competitive and make a move with the right star alignment as well. The problem these two clubs have, is they meet in their opening playoff game. The rest of the region could be competitive, with West Charlotte and McDowell trailing.
Independence
Mallard Creek
Butler
East Forsyth
Hough
West Forsyth
Lake Norman
South Mecklenburg
Providence
Ardrey Kell
Northwest Guilford
Myers Park
Olympic
Page
West Charlotte
McDowell
This post was edited on 11/12 1:32 PM by mrhonda
4A East
In this region, you have basically New Bern and Scotland. I've listed New Bern first, based on the models. But in reality, you basically have 1 and 1A. I would not be surprised if either one of these teams comes out of this region. Though this region has some good teams, it looks like Scotland and New Bern are the cream of the crop.
Seventy-First and Rose are in the next tier. But, I would put Seventy-First a few steps ahead of Rose. Hoggard and Connelly could make a run if the stars align correctly. The rest of the teams in this region are in the next tier.
New Bern Scotland Seventy-First Rose Hoggard Conley E.E. Smith East Wake Hillside New Hanover Cape Fear South Central West Johnston Clayton Northern Riverside 4A West
In this region, Dudley would have been a slight favorite to win 4A West. But, with Dudley not in the playoffs, Charlotte Catholic is the slight favorite to take this region. They aren't a prohibitive favorite, but are the most likely to win this region. I want to make a point that without Dudley, this will NOT be an asterisk championship for whoever wins this region. There are many quality teams here. With that being said, this region is going to be exciting. You have Charlotte Catholic, Vance, Reagan, and Mooresville, who could all escape this region with the right circumstances coming into play. High Point Central, North Davidson, A.L. Brown and Rocky River will all be competitive, but not having enough horses to challenge the top teams.
Charlotte Catholic
Vance Reagan Mooresville High Point Central North Davidson A.L. Brown Rocky River Southeast Guilford Mount Tabor Ragsdale Davie County South Caldwell Watauga T.C. Roberson 4AA East
In this region, you have a definite top tier, Richmond, Wake Forest and Garner. Many people have Richmond tabbed as the winner here. I'm going to be the contrarian and indicate, again in this region, you have 1 and 1A, with Garner close behind. Based on the computer models, I have Wake Forest as a very slight favorite to escape this region. But, I would not be shocked if Wake Forest, Garner or Richmond take this region. You have Wake Forest, Richmond and Garner with some separation from the rest of the pack. Then you have a second tier of Middle Creek, Millbrook, Pinecrest and Panther Creek. The rest of the region, one could roll the dice.
Wake Forest Richmond Garner Middle Creek Millbrook Pinecrest Panther Creek Heritage Green Hope Holly Springs Jack Britt Apex Fuquay-Varina Leesville Road Wakefield Laney 4AA West
This region is traditionally one of the state's toughest regions. There's a definite tier structure this season. East Forsyth, Butler, Independence and Mallard Creek make up the definite upper tier. It will be close, but East Forsyth will have to run the gauntlet to win this region, much like Page had to do in 2011. Hough and West Forsyth could be competitive and make a move with the right star alignment as well. The problem these two clubs have, is they meet in their opening playoff game. The rest of the region could be competitive, with West Charlotte and McDowell trailing.
Independence Mallard Creek Butler East Forsyth Hough West Forsyth Lake Norman South Mecklenburg Providence Ardrey Kell Northwest Guilford Myers Park Olympic Page West Charlotte McDowellThis post was edited on 11/12 1:32 PM by mrhonda