I cannot debate a single point and truly like to see kids grasp the importance of an education. I have told a many of kid (not power 5 talent) to take a VMI offer if you get one. Graduate and you will be set for life. I know and work with many and I honestly don't know of one VMI graduate who has not made something of themselves.
You obviously have a better understanding of the recruitment process, but I would think if your production drops in half recruiters might have some concerns.
I don't mean to imply you can't get a good education at Louisa either. Woodberry Forest is obviously different and I think given their reputation a lot of people perceive different as being better which isn't always the case.
If he hadn't already been noticed, I think you make a really good point. But the guys doing this for a living, they're going to be familiar with Woodberry Forest, his teammates, the competition, all that. He already has some big time offers in his pocket. He is the composite #1 back in the '26 class. They're going to evaluate him in person at camps, on campus, during his visits, in addition to watching his game film, and talking to his coaches. That's not to say he might not develop/mature as expected, or maybe one of his peers just ends up being better. That could still very well happen.
Stats just aren't the be-all and end-all we think they are sometimes. Kanye Roberts, out of Wallace-Rose Hill, led the entire country in rushing a few years ago, just over 3,500 yards his senior season. Plays for Appalachian State. Never rated higher than a 2-star. I'm not sure he got a single P5 offer.